Bobby Maxwell
Arizona +5' at TEXAS A&M
Off to the college hardwood tonight for a FREE play on Arizona as the Wildcats make the trek to College Station, Texas to take on Texas A&M.
Arizona won this matchup last year 78-67 as a three point home favorite. Now this year they are catching points at Texas A&M and they'll get it done again. Grab the points and play Arizona.
The Wildcats have overcome adversity early this season, with the retirement of coach Lute Olson. They struggled and lost their second game of the season at home to Alabama-Birmingham buth they have responded with four straight wins (2-0 ATS).
Arizona has a ton of experience on the roster with Nic Wise, Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger. It's time for Budinger to step up and be a real leader on this team. He's got the talent to be one of the best players in the country but he tends to hide at times and not want the spotlight. You'll see him mature this season and step into the spotlight at all times.
Texas A&M hasn't really played anybody this season and lost back on Nov. 28 67-56 against Tulsa on a neutral court, failing as 5 1/2-point favorites. The Aggies are shooting just 44 percent from the floor. Meanwhile Arizonais shooting 53 percent from the floor and 43.4 percent from beyond the three-point line.
Arizona is 5-0 ATS in its last five games against Big 12 opposition and tonight it moves to 6-0. Go with the Wildcats tonight.
3♦ ARIZONA
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Milwaukee Bucks -4.5
Charlotte is just 1-4 on the road this season and after back-to-back wins for the first time all year, I'm expecting a letdown on the road tonight. Milwaukee has dominated this series, winning 12 of the last 15 overall and 6 of the last 7 at home. The Bucks have already beaten Charlotte on the road this season by five points and I expect them to have an even greater margin of victory here. Milwaukee is a perfect 8-0 ATS versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game this season. The Bobcats are inconsistent because they rely on one on one play for their points instead of facilitating offense through good ball movement and penetration. The Bobcats won't share the ball well enough to cover this number tonight. Lay the points.
John Ryan
Game: Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Pick: 2 units TOTAL: Under 209.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play Under Indiana/Cleveland - AiS shows a 70% probability that fewer than 208 points will be scored in this game. AiS shows that both teams will not score more than 92 points and although a form of a self fulfilling prophesy there are two very strong game dependent angles supporting this play. Note that Indiana is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) when they score 87 to 92 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Cleveland is 18-2 UNDER (+15.8 Units) when they allow 87 to 92 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 44-17 UNDER for 72% since 1996. Play under with any team that is an excellent team shooting >=46% with a defense of <=43% on the season facing an opponent after 2 straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 50% or higher. Here is a second system that has gone 28-9 UNDER for 76% since 2002. Play Under - Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 that is an explosive offensive team scoring 103+ points/game on the season facing an opponent after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games. Cleveland is a solid 17-6 UNDER (+10.4 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER.
THE GOLDSHEET
MAC CHAMPIONSHIP
*Ball State 40 - Buffalo 21—All due respect to Buffalo’s best team in 50 years, but Ball State has more edges in this game. It was a bad sign for the Bull defense to give up 167 YR to QB Edelman and 150 to Flash RB Jarvis in last week’s home loss to Kent. And, in its previous game at Bowling Green, UB fell behind 21-0. Ball State’s MiQuale Lewis (1570 YR, 20 TDs in ‘08; 10 carries for 99 YR vs. Buffalo in his only game vs. the Bulls in ‘06) and QB Nate Davis (6667 YP, 55 TDP, just 12 ints. last 2 seasons; 73%, 6 TDs, just 1 int. in 2 career games vs. Buffalo) are capable of putting up monster numbers Respect Buffalo’s “triplets” of RB James Starks (123 ypg rushing), WR Naaman Roosevelt (86 recs., 1196 yds.) and QB Drew Willy (64%, 2885 YP, 22 TDP, just 5 ints.), but Cardinals are at least an equal offensively, and superior on defense & special teams. Buffalo allows 12 more ppg than Ball State. The Bulls STs are sadly lacking (108th in net punting, 116 in kickoff returns), while Ball State is 9th in punt returns. Card QB Davis, 6th in the country in pass efficiency, will have all the time he wants, as only 2 teams have collected fewer sacks than the Bulls, while Ball State ranks 5th in fewest sacks allowed. Also consider the fact that Ball State has never lost to Buffalo, with impressive covers in 2 most recent meetings. Realize Bulls have covered 8 straight as a dog, but Brady Hoke’s Cards are 15-5-1 last 21 as a favorite.
(07-BSU 49-Buf. 14...Bs.28-11 Bs.48/274 Bf.27/83 Bs.21/29/0/233 Bf.14/19/1/136 Bs.0 Bf.1) (07-BALL ST. -13' 49-14 06-Ball St. -4 55-25...SR: Ball State 6-0)
Nellys Greensheet
MAC CHAMPIONSHIP at Detroit, MI
Ball State (-14½) Buffalo 7:00 PM
The Cardinals look to finish off a historic undefeated season with the MAC title and winning this game would give the Cardinals a return trip to Detroit for the Motor City Bowl, an unfortunate underwhelming reward given the current bowl system and tie-ins. The schedule has not justified a higher ranking for Ball State but they have been an impressive team, coming up big late in the year against the top competition in the conference. Buffalo has been a great story this season and winning five in row late in the year earned this spot, as champion of the much weaker MAC East division. The Bulls played a stronger overall schedule this season but statistically these teams are not close. Buffalo averages fewer yards per game than the defense allows while Ball State is out-scoring opponents by nearly three touchdowns per game on average. Last season Ball State beat Buffalo 49-14, out-gaining the Bulls 507-219. This will be a neutral site game but the Cardinals have won on the road in primetime games in two of their final three games. This Ball State team also gained some valuable experience playing in a bowl game last season so the extra attention of a championship game should not be a problem. BALL STATE BY 21
Pointwise
MAC CHAMPIONSHIP @ Ford Field, Detroit
BALL STATE 45 - Buffalo 20 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- No questioning huge leaps UB has taken under Gill. In off having 5-game run snapped. Willy: 22/5; Starks: 1,208 RYs; WR Roosevelt, etc. But perfect Cards own Bulls (Wise Points), & have 506-125 RY edge last 2 gms. Davis (25/6); Lewis (1,570 RYs) do it again.
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP
MAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Buffalo vs Ball St
These teams have met just 4 times since Buffalo joined the MAC and Ball St has dominated going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS incl 3 straight covers. They have avg’d a combined 71 ppg with the lowest total being 62. LY Ball St easily covered as a 13’ HF winning 49-14. Ball St is 12-0 for the first time in their history. Their most wins previously was when they went 10-1 in 1978 when current HC Hoke was a player for the Cardinals. Buffalo’s 7-5 record is the Bulls’ first winning record since moving up to IA football in 1999. This is both teams’ first trip to the MAC Championship game and both are guaranteed their first ever bowl appearances. Ball St has gone 8-3 ATS incl 4-1 as an AF while Buffalo has gone 8-4 ATS incl 6-0 as an AD. They have faced 4 common opponents with Ball St going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS, while Buffalo went 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS. The Bulls came close to going 4-0 as a last second FG for the win vs CM hit the upright and they led WM by 14 with less than 5:00 left before losing in OT. Ball St had an extra 3 days to prepare as they closed the regular season on Tuesday with a 45-22 win over WM in a game in which they had a 452-347 yd edge. Buffalo played Friday and we won a 4H Small College Play on Kent St (+9’) as the Flashes caught the Bulls looking ahead to the MAC Championship. The Bulls who had the East Div locked up lost 24-21 and were outgained 426-385. The Cardinals have the offensive (#29-77) and defensive (#65-86) edges but the Bulls have played the tougher schedule (#84-120). Ball St QB Davis is avg 258 ypg (67%) with a 25-6 ratio. RB Lewis leads the MAC with 1,570 (5.7) with 20 rush TD and should do well against a Bulls defense that is allowing 4.7 ypc. The Cardinals top receiver is WR Orsbon with 52 (12.0). Buffalo QB Willy is avg 240 ypg (65%) with a 22-5 ratio. RB Starks, who missed 2 games with injuries, is #2 in the MAC in rush ypg (122.6) with a Buffalo single season record 1,226 yds (5.1) and 14 TD. Starks may be the Bulls best offensive hope as Ball St is allowing 4.3 ypc. The Bulls top receiver is Roosevelt with a Buffalo single season record 86 grabs (13.9). Ball St has won 11 of their 12 games by 12 pts or more while 7 of Buffalo’s games have been decided by 6 or less (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS). While this game looks like an offensive battle, it could be decided by the defenses. The Cardinals D is allowing just 16.7 ppg and 351.8 ypg compared to the Bulls’ defense that is allowing 27.8 ppg and 400.4 ypg.
Mr. A
Ball State Cardinals -15
The 12th-ranked Ball State Cardinals look to remain undefeated when they square off with the Buffalo Bulls in Detroit. Buffalo is averaging 30.2 points per game, but will face a Ball State's defense surrendering an average of just 16.7 points per game. Look for the Cardinals high-powered offense and quarterback Nate Davis to grab their seventh straight victory over the Bulls. In the last meeting on September 29 2007, Ball State defeated the Bulls, 49-14 at Ball State Stadium.
Orlando Magic -13
Cleveland Cavaliers -11
Portland Trail Blazers +8
Detroit Pistons -8½
Gina
Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers
Look for the surging Cleveland Cavaliers to continue their dominance over the Indiana Pacers at home. The Cavaliers are 10-0 at Quicken Loans Arena and have won its last eighth home battles against the Pacers. Go with LeBron James and squad in their house versus Central Division rivals, Pacers. Indiana is 1-6-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Cleveland.
Cleveland Cavaliers -11½
Johnny Guild
Buffalo Bulls vs. Ball State Cardinals
The Cardinals’ forceful offense ranked 15th in the nation, averaging 37.7 points per game led by quarterback Nate Davis and his arsenal of excellent receivers, especially running back MiQuale Lewis, who ranks fourth in nation averaging 130.8 rushing yards per game will wear down Buffalo's so-so defense. At the same time Ball State’s defense given up just 16.7 points a game will restrain Buffalo's sound offense. Expect a gung ho fight likely to be a shootout, but at the end the Cardinals will be more than the Bulls can handle in Detroit. Ball State is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games, 20-7 ATS in its last 27.
Ball State Cardinals -15
WILD BILL
NCAAF
Over 61 Ball St-Buffalo (5 units)
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Manhattan -4 (5 units)
Marist +2 (5 units)
NBA
Over 200 OKC-Magic (5 units)
Twolves +7 (5 units)
Golden St +9 1/2 (5 units)
Matt Fargo
Toronto Raptors vs. Utah Jazz
Play:Toronto Raptors +5.5
Injuries are a big concern for the linesmakers here but that is all on the Utah side and that is the reason for the delayed line coming out. Toronto is coming off a rout in Denver and not on the right side. It was bad enough to get head coach Sam Mitchell fired despite winning the NBA Coach of the Year award just two seasons ago. It has definitely been an up and down season for the Raptors but something says they put together a solid effort tonight before heading back home.
We saw it with the Wizards last week and that was a team playing bad coming out and playing one of its best games of the season with its new coach. The Wizards easily won over Golden St. and that was with a situation where they actually liked their old coach. Toronto is the same way but this is about the players and they go out to prove that they can win. The NBA is a very egotistical league and players can step up when they want to and this is one of those spots.
Utah has been struggling with a 3-3 record over its last six games as injuries are playing havoc with this lineup. The most shocking thing is that all three of those losses took place at home after starting the season 8-0 and after last year going 37-4 at EnergySolutions Arena. Injuries have no doubt played a role but losing to Chicago, New Jersey and Miami in pretty inexcusable. They may get some help back tonight but this team is far from 100 percent.
Over the last three seasons, Utah is just 13-27 ATS against teams with losing records but not having lost more than 40 percent of their games. Playing down to the competition is a big part of that and the Jazz have not fared well against the Eastern Conference, going 2-7 ATS in their nine games this season. Most shocking is that those seven losses against the number were also straight up losses. Toronto is going to bring it tonight and we should see its most inspired effort of the season. 3* Toronto Raptors
Tom Stryker
East Carolina vs. Tulsa
Play: Tulsa -11.5
If this game was being played in any other stadium, I would be a little nervous about lying close to two touchdowns with Tulsa. However, in the friendly confines of H.A. Chapman Stadium, the Golden Hurricane has been a force. Tulsa has won 10 straight in its own backyard including its last seven by an average of 40.7 points per game!
Offensively, Tulsa has been outstanding. The Golden Hurricane is averaging 49.3 points and 578.9 total yards per game. The man that makes this unit click is quarterback David Johnson. Ranked No. 1 nationally in passing efficiency (192.4), Johnson has pitched the pigskin around for 3,671 yards or an average of 305.9 passing yards per game. East Carolina’s defensive front four is solid. However, given time to throw, Johnson should pick apart a Pirates secondary that has surrendered an average of 196.8 yards per game.
If you want to beat the Golden Hurricane, you better be able to put points on the board. ECU has struggled to do that this season. Currently ranked 80th in scoring offense (23.5 ppg) and 78th in total offense (340.8 ypg), the Pirates may not be able to find the endzone enough times to match Tulsa point-for-point. If East Carolina turns the football over in this contest and gives the Golden Hurricane’s offense more touches, the Pirates will be in serious trouble.
Respect is certainly given to an ECU team that has recorded a solid 7-1 ATS record in its last eight priced as a double-digit underdog. However, the Golden Hurricane has been unstoppable at home and they’ve cashed 12 of their last 16 in their own backyard coming off a momentum building straight up win. Take Tulsa!
Tony George
Missouri vs. Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma -16.5
It boils down to Oklahoma who was given the nod by the BCS point system to represent the South division of the Big 12 after walking through both Okie State and pounding Texas Tech into the ground. OU is playing as good of football as any team in the USA right now, and I agree with the call for them to represent the South.
Mizzou on the other hand was dealt back to back fatal blows early on this season with a home loss to Okie State following by a good Ol fashion woodshed beating from Texas and they have not been the same since. Take into account other than Arkansas and Kansas LAST YEAR Mizzou has no quality wins over a ranked opponent with this highly touted team, and they are off a devastating loss week to Kansas, who threw it all over them at will at Arrowhead stadium. I do respect the MU program, but without a defense, you cannot win big games, just watch last weeks game film.
Missouri biggest issue here in terms of competing is 2 fold. QB Daniel has proven to be less than effective with the pressure on him, and OU can get to the passer. The major issue for Mizzou is no pass rush, and when you give OU quarterback Sam Bradford all day to throw and then pound RB Murray at a weak front four, it makes it a total mis-match up front, and with the skill players and excellent coaching OU has, I sniff a blowout. Many think that Mizzou with nothing to lose here will play wide open and compete in their backyard, I beg to differ. Oklahoma beat them twice last year both in convincing fashion. I see a better OU team this year than last year with a national title on the line while Mizzou simply cannot trade punches on offense to match what OU will put up.
Oklahoma 52 Mizzou 28
Dunkel
NCAAF
Game 109-110: Navy vs. Army
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 85.474; Army 75.905
Dunkel Line: Navy by 9 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Navy by 11; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Army (+11); Over
Game 111-112: Pittsburgh at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 95.412; Connecticut 92.176
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 50
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 2 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+2 1/2); Over
Game 113-114: South Florida at West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 85.325; West Virginia 98.580
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 13; 52
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 7; 47
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-7); Over
Game 115-116: Washington at California
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 70.012; California 106.521
Dunkel Line: California by 36 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: California by 35 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: California (-35 1/2); Over
Game 117-118: USC at UCLA
Dunkel Ratings: USC 118.648; UCLA 89.926
Dunkel Line: USC by 28 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: USC by 33; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (+33); Over
Game 119-120: Arizona State at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 92.864; Arizona 101.448
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 8 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Arizona by 10 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (+10 1/2); Under
Game 121-122: Cincinnati at Hawaii
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 92.403; Hawaii 87.733
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (+7); Under
Game 123-124: Arkansas State at Troy
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 75.200; Troy 88.759
Dunkel Line: Troy by 13 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Troy by 11; 54
Dunkel Pick: Troy (-11); Over
Game 125-126: Western Kentucky at Florida International
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 65.483; Florida International 78.935
Dunkel Line: Florida International by 13 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Florida International by 8; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida International (-8); Under
Game 127-128: East Carolina at Tulsa
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 84.452; Tulsa 93.708
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 9; 73
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 12 1/2; 65 1/2
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (+12 1/2); Over
Game 129-130: Boston College vs. Virginia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 97.699; Virginia Tech 92.671
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 5; 44
Vegas Line: Pick; 39
Dunkel Pick: Boston College; Over
Game 131-132: Alabama vs. Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 107.067; Florida 120.543
Dunkel Line: Florida by 13 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Florida by 9 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-9 1/2); Under
Game 133-134: Missouri vs. Oklahoma
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 102.897; Oklahoma 122.076
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 19; 85
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 17; 79
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-17); Over