Brian Hansen
Chicago Blackhawks at Colorado Avalanche
Prediction: Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche (14-13-1) have enjoyed an offensive resurgence with four or more goals in four of the past six games, and they matched a season high Tuesday with a 6-1 victory over Los Angeles; expect more of the same tonight! In fact this is a bad spot for Chicago which is a horrible 0-4 after a non-conference game; play on COLORADO!
PRICELESS PICKS
1 Unit on Portland Blazers -9.5
The 15-9 Blazers will take it to the 4-17 Clippers tonight. After getting beaten by nine points in Utah last night, we fully expect the better team to bounce back on its home floor. Portland is 7-1 at home this season while LA is only 2-7 on the road. I'm not too worried about Portland playing back-to-back as this young team is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 0 days rest and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Lay the points.
Matt Fargo
New Orleans Hornets @ Boston Celtics
Pick: Boston Celtics -6.5
Boston just keeps rolling along and it is out proving that is was not a one-hit wonder last season. The Celtics are coming off a blowout win in Washington last night and that was with a pretty big marquee game on tap for tonight so it is obvious the Celtics are doing the right thing and focusing one game at a time. In comes a tough opponent tonight but the Celtics have had little trouble dealing with the elite teams as they are 5-1 ATS against teams that are outscoring opponents by three of more ppg.
New Orleans got off to a very slow start this season as it went 5-5 through its first 10 games but it has since won three straight games and seven of its last eight dating back to mid-November. That streak looks nice but the Hornets have played no one for the most part as five of those wins came against Oklahoma City (twice), Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis and Charlotte while another came against Phoenix who was without Steve Nash. New Orleans is just 3-3 against the league’s top ten teams.
Conversely, the Celtics are 4-1 against the top ten with the lone setback coming against Denver and the Nuggets are proving they are a force to be reckoned with. The home team won both meetings in this series last season with the Celtics victorious by 20 points at home with both teams being at full strength. Boston outrebounded the Hornets 40-29 and outscored them in the paint 56-30. In the game in New Orleans, the Celtics won that rebounding battle as well 44-29 but 20 turnover did them in.
That rebounding advantage was big and it will be big again as Boston falls into a great situation based on the rebounding advantage. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are outrebounding opponents by three or more per game after three straight games outrebounding opponent by five or more. This situation is 84-45 ATS (65.1 percent) since 1996 including a solid 26-8 ATS (76.5 percent) over the last five seasons. Boston does not let up and continues its torrid dominating run. 3* Boston Celtics
John Ryan
Georgia Southern at Drake
Prediction: Drake
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Drake (CBB) AiS shows a 74% probability that Drake will win this game by 12 or more points. Based on the summary projections Georgia Southern is in a series of poor roles while Drake is in a series of superior roles. Georgia Southern is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when they attempt 10+ less free throws than their opponents in a game over the last 2 seasons; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they allow 81 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Drake is 42-16 ATS (+24.4 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game since 1997; 27-8 ATS (+18.2 Units) when they make 46% or more of their three point attempts in a game since 1997; 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when they grab 9 to 13 offensive rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons; 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) when they grab 10+ more rebounds than their opponents in a game since 1997; 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) when they score 81 or more points in a game since 1997; 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 55-24 ATS for 70% since 1997. Play on a favorite that is an average shooting team hitting 42.5-45% facing an average defensive team allowing a 42.5-45%; good rebounding team sporting a differential of +3 to +6 reb/game facing a poor rebounding team with a differential of -3 to -6 reb/game. Finally, Drake is an impressive 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams attempting <=18 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons. Take Drake.
Boston Bruins vs. Atlanta Thrashers
Play: Atlanta Thrashers +153
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Atlanta (NHL) – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 124-125 making 55.2 units for 50% since 1996. Play against any team against the money line that is a hot team having won 15 or more of their last 20 games and is a tired team when playing their 3rd game in 5 days. Atlanta has done very well against superior opponents. Note that they are 41-57 against the money line, but has made +21.6 Units versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 0.5+ goals/game since 1996. Atlanta is 33-44 against the money line (+10.7 Units) after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games since 1996. Take Atlanta.
Ben Burns
Boston Bruins at Atlanta Thrashers
Prediction: Atlanta Thrashers
I feel that the Thrashers are offering solid value here and that they've got a realistic shot at scoring the upset. Boston finally lost last game, falling 3-1 vs. Washington. Most will feel that the 'mighty Bruins' aren't capable of losing two in a row. However, a closer look shows that Boston is just 19-30 since 2006 after scoring one goal or less in its previous game. The Thrashers already lost a close one (5-4) at Boston earlier and they also play at Boston again on Saturday. They really don't want to lose all three of those games and that means that they better bring their best effort tonight. The Thrashers have won three of the last four as a host in this series, most recently recording a 5-0 victory. Consider Atlanta
Tom Freese
Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Over
Sacramento is 19-7 OVER their last 26 road games and they are 13-3 OVER vs. winning teams. The Kings are 18-6 OVER as underdogs of 11 or more points and they are 10-4 OVER on Friday. Los Angeles is 9-1 OVER vs. losing teams and they are 8-2 OVER their last 10 games overall. The Lakers are 8-2 OVER off an ATS loss and they are 21-6-1 OVER their last 28 games with the Kings. PLAY ON 'OVER'
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Hornets/Celtics OVER 188.5
Boston has gone over the number in 4 of its last 5 games and New Orleans is 4-0-1 over in its last 5 games. Both of last seasons matchups between these two teams easily made it over with totals of 204 and 219. Boston hardly broke a sweat last night and the Hornets have not been challenged in three straight games so I expect these teams to have tons of energy on the offensive end. Boston is 7-0 OVER after playing a game as a road favorite this season, with the average score totaling 208.4 points in these spots. Boston is averaging 100.9 ppg at home and the Hornets are scoring 97.7 on the road. I like this one to go over the number by 7-10 points.
Matty O'Shea
I'm going with the Hornets +7 on Friday against the mighty Celtics.This is a tough spot for Boston playing consecutive nights on national TV, and the defending champs are just 2-4 ATS in six previous back-to-back situations this season.Sure, they have won 13 in a row overall, but New Orleans matches up very well against them and has actually won three of the last four meetings
VEGAS EXPERTS
Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavs
Our favorite team is back in action tonight. The Cleveland Cavs play the 2nd game of a home and home tonight with the Sixers, bringing in a 12-0 SU home record (10-2 ATS). This year, the team is 16-2 vs. the number when favored. Of course, they have won and covered each of their last 10 games, which includes a NBA record-setting 9 straight wins by 12 or more points. Shockingly, LeBron and company have covered seven straight as double-digit home chalk.
Play on: Cleveland
Jrtips
TORONTO vs. NEW JERSEY
The Toronto Raptors finally got a win for interim coach Jay Triano in their last game and Chris Bosh showed signs that he is starting to break out of his offensive funk. Tonight's game against the New Jersey Nets might be what he needs to end it altogether. Bosh scored a career high 42 points in a wild overtime loss to New Jersey last month and will look to lead the Raptors to their first road win in more than three weeks against the Nets. Jason Kapono had a season-high 25 points and Bosh added 21 points and 10 rebounds in a comfortable 101-88 win over the Pacers Wednesday. In last months game at home against the Nets (11-9 in which the raptors lost 129-127, along with Bosh's 42 points, Andrea Bargnani scored a career-high 29 and Jose Calderon had 26 points and 15 assists.The Nets got 30 points from Devin Harris and 39 from former Raptor Vince Carter. Carter is second on the Nets with 22.3 points per game behind Devin Harris who is averaging 24.8 points and has reached the 30-point mark seven times after not doing it at all in his first four seasons. He had 32 on Wednesday against New York but it wasn't enough to keep New Jersey from a 121-109 loss.The Nets allow 103.3 ppg, second-most in the East behind the Knicks so look for another high scoring game tonight as both offensives are playing well without much defense to go with it. 206 Points is a low total for these two teams.
TAKE OVER 206 TORONTO/NEW JERSEY
Jeff Benton
Today's Play
Did it once again last night, as the Saints-Bears game got “over” the total thanks to overtime, giving me my eighth consecutive free-play winner! Not only that, but I’m now 13-2 with freebies over the last 15 days! Let’s keep the streak going Friday, as we’ll take the big points with the Kings against the Lakers.
Obviously, Los Angeles (18-3) is vastly superior to Sacramento (6-16). And no doubt the Lakers are in revenge mode after losing up at Sacramento on Tuesday 113-101 as an 11½-point road favorite, and with their talent, they could easily blow the Kings off the court in a big way tonight. However, the Lakers can’t be trusted to cover this kind of number right now, in large part because Phil Jackson’s team has stopped playing defense. L.A. has given up more than 100 points in five of its last six games, surrendering an average of 106.5 ppg during this stretch. Hence the reason Kobe and the boys are just 1-5 ATS during this six-game stretch, including four consecutive non-covers as a double-digit favorite.
Now, the Kings have their own defensive issues, which is why prior to Tuesday’s stunner over the Lakers they had lost eight straight games, including five by double digits. However, one of those double-digit defeats was a 118-108 loss at the Lakers on Nov. 23, and Sacramento easily cashed as a 17-point underdog in that one.
The Kings are now 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a dog of 11 points or more, while the Lakers are just 2-6 ATS when laying that kind of chalk. Also, Sacramento has cashed in five straight games against Pacific Division foes and 13 of its last 18 when playing on two days’ rest.
Again, I wouldn’t be totally stunned to see the Lakers roll by 20-plus here, but with the way they’re going right now, this number is just way too big. Play the road pup.
3♦ SACRAMENTO KINGS
Matt Rivers
13-6 run after the Jazz on Thursday!
For Friday take the Spurs at the Target Center.
Like I always say, laying points on the road is never the key to the mint but the way San Antonio has picked things up of late I can't help but think they are going to win in blowout fashion today.
Greg Popovich' squad had a ton of issues beginning the season whether it be injuries, shoddy play or what but now things are clicking perfectly and all of a sudden the Spurs are right there in contention despite the 1-5 or whatever start to the season.
With the big three around in Duncan, Ginobili and Parker you know there is a ton of professionalism so being on the highway with this team is not the end of the world.
Minnesota has some decent young players and especially so in a beast in Al Jefferson but the Timberwolves lost out in a star in OJ Mayo in that Kevin Love deal and have been fairly wretched for the entire season.
Look for San Antonio's defense to dominate as it usually does and in the end another win and cover.
Jake Timlin
Your Friday selection is the Boston Celtics.
Anytime you can get the Celtics at home minus less the ten points I say jump all over Boston. I mean give that Boston is off to a franchise best 21-2 straight up this season and a solid 12-1 straight up at home I don’t see the Celtics losing at the Garden tonight. Now with that can the Celtics cover the number? Well thanks to having covered 4 of their last 5 games and all as a 8 point favorite or larger I like the Celtics changes tonight, especially once you factor in the Celtics 20 point blowout last season at home against New Orleans. Meanwhile, for the Hornets while they have turned things around tonight is their first road game this month it will show in a negative way if you ask me. Flat out Boston is going to be pumped about tonight’s game and with that I see them rolling by at least ten points. Take the Celtics minus the points!
LARRY NESS
Chicago Bulls @ Memphis Grizzlies
PICK: Memphis Grizzlies
Derrick Rose has more than lived up to expectations for the Chicago Bulls in his first season. He was the No. 1 overall pick in this summer's draft, after leading Memphis to a 38-2 season as a freshman. The Tigers lost a memorable overtime 'heartbreaker' to Kansas in the national championship game. Rose averaged 14.7-4.5-4.9 as a freshman and through the first 21 games of his rookie season with the Bulls, is averaging 18.3-3.8-6.1. The people of Memphis probably aren't very surprised and they will likely welcome him back tonight, as he makes his first appearance in Memphis as a pro. However, that's not to say the fans will be rooting for him. The Bulls won 49 games two years ago but lost 49 last season and will take a 10-11 record into tonight's game. Gordon (20.2-3.5-4.0) joins Rose in the backcourt, which is fairly strong (even with Hinrich out) now that Larry Hughes (13.2) is playing better (and seems to be healthy). Deng (13.9-5.0) is coming around, Gooden (12.9-9.2) is nothing if NOT steady and I've always liked Nocioni (9.0-3.9). Still, the Bulls are off back-to-back wins for just the second time this year and have struggled on the road this year, going 3-8 SU while allowing 103.8 PPG. The Grizzlies are just 7-15 this year but have won three of their last four. Mayo (20.8-4.2) is the only rookie scoring more than Rose this year and Gay (19.6-5.3) is having a superb third season. Then there is Pau Gasol's younger brother Marc, who looks like a player, averaging 111.5 PPG and 6.8 RPG. The Grizzlies are a respectable 5-5 SU at home this year and have won six of seven homes games against the Bulls here in Memphis, since moving from Vancouver. I'm taking the small home dog.
Lenny Del Genio
Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers
Cleveland's incredible 10-0 SU/ATS run has to come to an sooner or later right. Well, while handing them their first outright home loss of the season might prove too daunting for the Sixers tonight, covering this 10.5-point number should be no issue. That stayed within that same number two nights ago in Philly. The big reason to look at the visitor tonight is that the Cavs will be without G Boobie Gibson and C Zydrunas Ilgauskas. That and the Sixers are 35-19 ATS Away off a loss. Take Philadelphia.