Friday Service Plays

DAVE COKIN

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS / MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Take MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

Free opinion is on the Grizzlies laying a small number at home to Charlotte. The Bobcats have been solid as road dogs to be sure, but I like the way Memphis is playing right now and feel they have enough to get it done tonight.

JIM FEIST

SACRAMENTO KINGS / HOUSTON ROCKETS
Take HOUSTON ROCKETS

Houston plays outstanding defense at home, and in to town comes the struggling/rebuilding Kings. Sacramento is on a 2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS run. They are off an ugly 109-77 loss at Portland, and it doesn't get any easier here. Tracy McGrady notched his fourth career triple-double and first this season, Yao Ming scored 32 points and the Rockets beat the Denver Nuggets 108-96 on Tuesday night. McGrady had 20 points and reached season highs in rebounds (14) and assists (10). McGrady has been bothered by a sore left knee all season, but he looked as spry as ever. Houston improved to 70-6 at the Toyota Center when they reach 100 points! Sacramento is 2-10 on the road. Play the Rockets.

Marc Lawrence

Play On: Wake Forest

In a season filled with good basketball teams, the Deacon Demons continue to fly under the radar despite its 9-0 start. 2nd year head coach Dino Gaudio lead Wake to a 17-win effort last season and returns all 5 starters from that squad. Picked to finish behind North Carolina, Duke and Miami in the ACC this season, they have served notice they will be a force to be reckoned with once conference play starts next month. They have knocked off Richmond in each of the last 15 games in this series and are 5-1 ATS on this floor. Toss in the Demons’ 23-3 ATS mark in SU non-conference road wins and we have no reservations about laying the points here tonight.

Jimmy The Moose

Chicago Blackhawks at Calgary Flames
Prediction: Chicago Blackhawks

Blackhawks playing very well right now have won 5 straight and 6 of their last 7 games. Chicago has won their last 4 vs. Western Conference opponents. In their last 4 games following a win they are 4-0. This will be Calgary's 3rd game in 4 nights and in their last 6 times in this situation they are 1-5. The Flames have lost 3 of their last 5 games. Chicago has won 5 of their last 7 trips to Calgary. Play on the Chicago Blackhawks +.

Bobby Maxwell

Milwaukee +2' at NEW YORK

A couple reasons to take the Bucks in this one - they absolutely own the Knicks and New York is coming off a long road trip to the West Coast and it's always the smart play to go against a team returning home from a long cross-country road trip.

Milwaukee has beaten New York twice already this season and three straight dating back to last year. And amazingly, they have held the Knicks to less than 90 points in each win this year. The Bucks are coming off their fourth loss in six games after losing 93-88 to the Sixers on Wednesday, but that was their fifth game in eight days. Now they've had a night off to rest a bit and get ready for the Knicks.

Bucks' star Michael Redd had just six points in their loss Wednesday and that's bad news for New York. I've said it before, a star player doesn't like to have an embarrassing performance and they usually respond with a huge night next time out. He's averaging 24.5 points per game in the previous four before the Wednesday loss.

New York lost in Los Angeles, 116-114 to the Lakers on Tuesday and had to travel cross country to get back home. They will look good in the first half, but look for Milwaukee to come on strong in the second half. Grab the points and play the Bucks tonight.

4♦ MILWAUKEE

Big Al Mcmordie

Cleveland Cavaliers at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers

Reason: At 10:35 pm, our member selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers who have been "road warriors" under coach Mike Brown. Indeed, since January 2007, Cleveland is a powerful 46-20 ATS on the road provided the Cavaliers are NOT favored by 3 or more points. This game has opened up with Cleveland installed as a 1-point underdog, so our 46-20 angle applies. Take Cleveland to get the $$$ tonight.

Scott Spreitzer

Toronto Raptors at Oklahoma City Thunder
Prediction: Toronto Raptors

A couple of nights ago, I played against Toronto and we cashed with the Mavericks. I mentioned Toronto's weakness at times has been their work on the glass. Their weakness played into Dallas' rebounding strength. But that problem will definitely NOT rear it's ugly head against the Thunder, who at 2-24 SU, can't do anything right. The Thunder are winless at home in over six weeks and have no one to match up with the duo of Jermaine O'Neal and Chris Bosh. By the way, Bosh had a horrible night against the Mavs, shooting just 6-of-20 and finishing with only 12 points. Expect a huge bounce-back on Friday. OKC heads into tonight's homer with a 3-9 spread mark at the Ford Center and they're 0-3 ATS in games against the Atlantic Division. It's a shame Kevin Durant is "stuck" in the land of the Thunder. The Raptors get just what the doctor ordered to snap their three game skid and I expect them to take full advantage. I'm laying the points with Toronto.

Brian Hansen

Anaheim Ducks at Edmonton Oilers
Prediction: Edmonton Oilers

After going more than five weeks without a regulation road loss earlier this season, the Ducks are still seeking their first point away from Anaheim this month. It may not get any easier as they open a five-game road trip without starting goaltender Jean-Sebastien Giguere in a city where they've had little success lately; expect the Oilers to bounce back in a big way tonight! The Ducks have lost four of their last five overall games against the Oilers, and have dropped 14 of 16 games in Edmonton since 1999-2000; expect more of the same tonight! Look for the OILERS to improve to 6-4 their last 10 when playing against a team with a winning record!

Matt Fargo

Charlotte Bobcats at Memphis Grizzlies
Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies

Here we have a middle of the road team from the Eastern Conference against a middle of the road team from the Western Conference. The dominance of the latter makes them a play at home and especially with such a short number. Memphis has been playing its best basketball of the season of late, going 4-1 over its last five games with the lone loss coming against New Orleans. The Grizzlies are sitting in 10th place in the conference standing and while a playoff berth is unlikely, they are not out of it.

Charlotte meanwhile is sitting in 14th place in the Eastern Conference and because of the conference being so average, it also remains in the playoff hunt but must get by six teams to do it which is highly unlikely. The Bobcats are coming off a win in their last game but it took overtime and it was at home. That victory snapped a seven-game losing streak and now it will try to put a run together the other way but they are just 1-9 on the road this season. That one victory took overtime to get it done in Indiana.

Prior to the loss against the Hornets, Memphis had won four straight games at home and this young team is starting to show signs of coming together. As a matter of fact, during its recent 5-2 run, both of those losses came against New Orleans. Memphis is 3-13 against the top teams in the NBA, ranked 16th or higher but it is 6-3 against the rest of the league. Charlotte is 5-4 against the bottom half in the NBA including a 1-3 record on the road. In those 10 road games, the Bobcats have been outscored by six ppg.

Charlotte has actually struggled pretty poor against the ?bad? teams in the league as it is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games against teams winning below 40 percent of their games. Meanwhile, Memphis is 5-2 in its last seven games against teams with the same parameter. The Bobcats are 8-23-2 ATS against teams from the Southwest Division and while it can be argued that most of those losses have come against the other four ?top? teams, they are 1-4 ATS in the last five against Memphis as well. 3* Memphis Grizzlies

SPORTS ADVISORS

L.A. Lakers (21-3, 11-13 ATS) at Miami (12-12, 8-15-1 ATS)

The Lakers open a four-game road trip with a stop at the American Airlines Arena in South Beach for a meeting with the slumping Heat.

Los Angeles has won four straight and seven of its last eight, but the Lakers have struggled at the betting window, going 0-7 ATS since December 5, all as a double-digit favorite. They beat the Knicks 116-114 on Tuesday but came nowhere near covering as a 13-point home chalk. The Lakers are 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS) on the highway this season, and the last time they hit the road they fell 113-101 in Sacramento as 11½-point favorites.

Miami has dropped three straight, including two in a row in front of the home fans, most recently falling 98-83 at home to the Bucks on Monday as a 3½-point chalk. The Heat are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games, and they are just 4-8 ATS in Miami this season. Star Dwyane Wade leads the NBA in scoring at 28 points a game, but he’s averaged just 17.7 points during his team’s three-game losing streak.

Los Angeles has won three straight over the Heat and gone 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings dating back to 2003. Last season, the Lakers got a 104-94 win in Miami as 7½-point favorites, then blew out the Heat 106-88 in Los Angeles as a 14-point chalk. Los Angeles’ Lamar Odom had 15 points, 18 rebounds and six assists last time he was in Miami, and he’s averaged 13.3 points, 15 boards and 5.7 assists in three games against his former team.

In addition to their 0-7 overall ATS rut, the Lakers are on a bevy of negative ATS trends, including 3-15 against the Eastern Conference, 0-5 when getting two days off and 1-4 on Fridays. Meanwhile, the Heat haven’t been very good at the betting window either, going 19-41 ATS in their last 60 home games, 3-13 ATS in their last 16 when getting three days off, 1-9 ATS in their last 10 at home against teams with a winning road record and 1-4 ATS in their last five against the Western Conference.

For Los Angeles, the over is on runs of 4-1 overall, 9-2 against the Eastern Conference, 8-3 following a straight-up win and 15-7 on Fridays. The Heat are on “over” streaks of 5-2 at home and 6-1 against Pacific Division teams, but the under is 20-8 in their last 28 games after a straight-up loss. In this rivalry, the under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings overall and 4-0 in the last four in Miami.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

Utah (16-11, 15-12 ATS) at Detroit (14-9, 11-12 ATS)

The Jazz will try to make it seven in straight wins over the Pistons when they visit the Palace at Auburn Hills for a showdown with Detroit.

Utah has won six straight (5-1 ATS) and eight of nine SU and ATS against Detroit dating back to 2004. The Jazz went to Detroit last season and got a 103-93 win as a one-point favorite, then followed that up with a 103-95 home win as a two-point chalk. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings, and Utah has cashed in each of its last four trips to Detroit.

The Jazz snapped a two-game losing streak with Wednesday’s 103-92 road win in New Jersey, cashing as 2½-point favorites. Utah, which rallied from a 27-7 first-quarter deficit against the Nets, is in the midst of a five-game Eastern Conference road trip and has cashed in five of its last six on the highway after starting the season 2-5 ATS on the highway.

Detroit has rattled off three straight wins (2-1 ATS) after a three-game SU and ATS losing streak in early December. On Wednesday, the Pistons downed Washington 88-74, cashing as a 9½-point home chalk. Allen Iverson had 28 points and six rebounds in the victory, giving him his first back-to-back 20-plus point games since joining the Pistons. Detroit is just 4-7 ATS in its 11 home games this season.

Utah is on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 6-2 as an underdog and 6-1 when playing on a day of rest. Detroit is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 against the Western Conference, but the Pistons are on ATS slides of 3-10 against the Northwest Division, 2-5 as a favorite and 2-5 on Fridays.

For the Jazz, the over is on streaks of 4-0-1 overall, 4-0-1 as an underdog and 6-0-1 against the Eastern Conference. Conversely, Detroit is on “under” streaks of 11-3 overall, 7-2 at home, 8-3 as a favorite and 4-0 against the Western Conference and 5-1 following a spread-cover. In this series, the over is 5-0 in the last five meetings overall and 4-1 in the last five clashes in Detroit.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH

Cleveland (21-4, 20-5 ATS) at Denver (17-8, 15-9-1 ATS)

The marquee game of the night comes from the Pepsi Center in Denver, where the Nuggets welcome the Cavaliers in a showdown of two of the hottest teams in the NBA.

Cleveland has won 12 of its last 13 SU and ATS, and after having its 11-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in Atlanta, the Cavs bounced back to blow out Minnesota 93-70 on Wednesday as a 10-point road chalk. LeBron James scored 32 points against the Timberwolves, he’s averaging 27.3 points per game this season and he’s the only player in the NBA averaging more than 20 points, six rebounds and six assists per contest.

Denver had a four-game winning streak snapped Tuesday in Houston, falling 108-96 as a four-point ‘dog. The Nuggets had previously won seven of eight (6-2 ATS), including four of five at home (3-2 ATS). Since the arrival of Chauncey Billups, Denver is 16-5 (12-8-1 ATS), and the team’s once porous defense is now holding the opposition to 42.7 percent shooting, third best in the NBA behind Boston and Cleveland.

George Karl’s Nuggets had won five straight (4-1 ATS) in this rivalry until they went to Cleveland on Nov. 13 and fell 110-99 as seven-point ‘dogs. However, Denver has won three in a row over the Cavs in the Mile High City (2-1 ATS), including last season’s 122-100 blowout win, easily cashing as an eight-point favorite. The chalk is 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head battles.

Cleveland is on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 35-17 overall, 5-1 on the road, 6-0 against the Western Conference, 20-8 against the Northwest Division, 20-8 when getting a day off and 19-7 after a spread-cover. Denver is just 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven against the Central Division, but otherwise the Nuggets are on ATS upswings of 16-5 on Fridays, 35-17-1 against the Eastern Conference and 6-1-1 after a non-cover.

The Cavaliers are on “under” runs of 8-3 overall, 9-3 against the Northwest Division, 20-9-1 against the Western Conference and 7-3 after a straight-up win. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are on “over” streaks of 9-3 overall, 7-1 at home, 20-7 against the Central Division and 8-2 in Friday contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

John Ryan

New Orleans at Louisiana Monroe
Prediction: New Orleans

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on New Orleans (CBB) AiS shows a 79% probability that NO will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 41-14 for 75% since 2002. Play against a home team off a road loss by 10 points or more facing an opponent off a road win scoring 85 or more points. Here is a second system that has gone 48-18 ATS for 73% since 2002. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road win and with just one or fewer starters returning from last season. Louisiana Monroe is just 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans has shot over 50% in their last 2 games and have had just 1 game shooting under 35%. LM has shot under 35% in 5 games and has not shot better than 50% all season. The highest they have shot is 43.5 against Steven F. Austin and they only defeated them by 2 points. In their last game they shot a horrid 27.1% and allowed 53% shooting to LA-Lafayette. Take New Orleans.

Larry Ness

Dallas Mavericks @ New Jersey Nets
PICK: New Jersey Nets

The Nets host the Mavs in a game which features New Jersey's new PG, Devin Harris (23.8-6.3 APG), matching up with the player the Nets sent to the Mavs in exchange for him, Jason Kidd (9.3-6.4-8.2). I've often said, the Nets likely wouldn't re-do that deal, if Dallas were also to throw in Nowitzki (26.4-9.2). This marks the first time Kidd will be back in New Jersey since the trade. Dallas is 12-3 SU since losing five in a row from Nov 7-14 and has 'owned' New Jersey in recent years, having won 14 of the last 16 meets with the Nets. Meanwhile, while the Nets have done fairly well on the road (8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS), they've struggled here at home (4-8 SU and ATS). New Jersey's home struggles were never in better evidence than Wednesday night, when they blew a 22-point lead by giving up 72 points in the second half of a 103-92 loss to the Jazz. Carter (22.5-4.6-4.8) and Harris can sure put points on the board plus the Nets do have a reasonably deep team. Yi (10.1-6.1) has been fine, while Pac 10 rookies Lopez (9.9-7.4) from Stanford and Anderson (7.5-4.1) from Cal, have been solid additions. Dooling (8.4) has played well in the backcourt and Simmons (7.8-4.3) isn't bad at small forward. However, the Nets are hoping that Boone can get back to form soon. The 6-10 power forward started strong this year but he's done little since returning from an ankle injury on Dec 12. He's gone scoreless in two of his four games back, totaling 11 points and 15 rebounds in the four games. The Mavs are playing better these days but Howard (19.1-7.0) has only been back for two games and is not yet 100 percent. A few years back, the Mavs were known for their depth but that's no longer the case. While the Mavs have won 12 of 15, they are a much less impressive 8-7 ATS in that span, including a a 1-5 ATS slide over their last six games. I'm taking the home dog in this one, as Jason's "return to the Meadowlands" ends in a New Jersey win (or at least a cover).

Info Plays

3* on New Orleans -1

Reasons why New Orleans covers the spread Friday

1.) New Orleans lost last year’s meeting in this in-state rivalry, so you can bet they will be looking for payback. LA-Monroe is down this season, so payback shouldn’t be a problem here. After posting a 10-21 record last season, LA-Monroe is off to an atrocious 2-7 start. They haven’t even been completive lately, either.

2.) LA-Monroe is 0-5 in their last 5 games, scoring just 59.4 PPG and yielding 81.4 PPG. That means they are getting outscored by 22.0 PPG and those numbers are the reason New Orleans is showing so much value tonight as the road favorite. New Orleans has won their last 2 road games and they will be hungry to get a little payback on the road this season against their rivals to cap off a third-straight road win.

3.) System Play. We’ll Play Against - A home team (LA-MONROE) - off a road loss by 10 points or more against opponent off an road win scoring 85 or more points. This is a 41-14 ATS System hitting 74.5% over the last 5 seasons. We’ll also Play On - A road team (NEW ORLEANS) - off an road win scoring 85 or more points, playing only their 3rd game in a week. This is a 45-17 ATS System hitting 72.6% over the last 5 seasons. New Orleans is playing solid basketball right now, while LA-Monroe has to be lacking confidence after getting blown out in 5 consecutive games. LA-Monroe is 1-11 ATS off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. LA-Monroe is 0-9 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Traditionally, this team has had a hard time bouncing back after a road loss. Bet New Orleans on the road.

Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on Kings/Rockets UNDER 200.5

Houston is a half court offensive team which uses lots of shot clock on most possessions. It is also a solid defensive team only allowing 90.2 ppg at home this season. With the Rockets controlling the tempo at home tonight, I like this one to go under the number. Houston is 13-4 UNDER in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The score in these spots has totaled just 181.8 ppg. Houston is also 19-8 UNDER in home games after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite over the last 2 seasons with the score in these spots totaling just 186.6. Odds makers have set the bar too high.