JIM FIEST
BOSTON CELTICS / GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
TAKE: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Golden Sate is rested and happy to be home after a 5-game road trip. Don Nelson has had no choice but to play all his young guys because of injuries, and it hasn't changed their uptempo pace. The fans will be sky-high for the defending champs coming to town, and the Warriors will run right at the Celtics, who are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. It's also the second of a back-to-back road spot, after playing an emotional game Thursday at the rival Lakers. A good situational spot for the rested home team. Play the Warriors.
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Miami Heat -5
The Heat are a strong 9-5 at home this season and bring a 3-game winning streak into this matchup with a Chicago team that is just 3-12 on the road. Chicago 's road problems have stemmed from a defense that is allowing 105.7ppg on the road this season. Chicago is only 15-30 ATS in road games first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Miami has won 7 of its last 10 games overall and is playing the better ball this season. We'll lay the points with the Heat at home.
Larry Ness
Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Hornets
PICK: New Orleans Hornets
This is not an easy scheduling spot for the Hornets, as they are coming off a Christmas Day shellacking at the hands of the Magic yesterday afternoon plus a 100-87 home loss to the Lakers on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Rockets haven't played since Tuesday's 99-90 loss at Cleveland, where no one has won this year. The Hornets fell behind by 30 points at the half yesterday and lost 88-68 to the Magic, shooting a season-low 33.3 percent (28-for-84) from the floor. The ever-reliable pair of Paul (19.9-5.2-11.4) and West (19.4-7.2) only combined for 25 points, while Peja (13.1) missed his fourth straight game with back spasms. Houston completes a four-game road trip with this game. The Rockets had a four-game winning streak snapped in their last outing, losing 99-90 at Cleveland. The good news was that Rafer Alston (12.1-5.2 APG) scored 20 points in his first game back after missing four with a strained hamstring. However, playing their fourth game in five nights seemed to catch up with T-Mac, as he had just four points on 2-of-7 shooting. McGrady is averaging a modest 16.1 PPG this year, a figure which be the lowest in a season since he left Toronto nine years ago. Over the last eight years (with first the Magic and now the Rockets), T-Mac has averaged between a high of 32.1 PPG and a low of 21.6 (LY). Yao (20.1-9.6) has been healthy this year, Artest (15.5-5.5-3.) has been steady while not causing any problems plus Scola (11.2-7.4) has continued the fine play he showed down the stretch LY. Second-year guard Aaron Brooks is scoring 11.2 PPG (up from 5.2 as a rookie) and after missing the season's first 15 games with inflammation in his left foot, Shane Battier (one of the league's best defenders), is back playing regularly (7.8). Still, I'm going with the Hornets in this one. New Orleans lost its first meeting this season at Houston on Nov 15, 91-82. Paul was held to a season-low 12 points in that game and after losses to the Lakers and Magic, the Hornets need to re-establish some confidence here. I'll make a small play on them in hopes that I'm right.
Matt Fargo
Houston Rockets at New Orleans Hornets
Prediction: New Orleans Hornets
Here we have a couple teams that are coming off losses and the winner comes down to which teams wants it more. While losing at Cleveland, who is 15-0 at home, the Rockets do not have a lot to be angry about so it is not even close to being in desperation mode especially since it had four straight wins prior to that. New Orleans meanwhile has dropped two straight games and both were embarrassing setbacks. The first was a 13-point home loss to the Lakers and the final score was actually closer than the game played out. Yesterday, the Hornets were destroyed in Orlando as the offense managed only 68 points which was a season low by far. Facing a tough Houston defense will make things easier but being back home, where it had won six straight games prior to the Los Angeles game, will help that offense. The Rockets defense has actually not been as good as advertised as they have allowed more points than New Orleans has this season and their 96.8 ppg allowed over their last five games is not very good. That jumps up to 99.2 ppg allowed over their last 10 games after giving up just 91.2 ppg through their first 19 games. This is a revenge spot for the hornets and for Chris Paul who had a bad game, scoring just 12 points on 2-10 shooting while turning it over three times and producing just one steal. New Orleans gets it back here. 3* New Orleans Hornets
Vegas Experts
Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors
The problem if you are the Boston Celtics is that you are going to get everyone's best shot. Normally, they are up to the challenge, but one day removed from having their 19-game win streak coming to an end, on Christmas Day vs. the Lakers no less, is too much to ask. Particularly because they face a Warriors team that will want to run. Boston has covered just three of their previous 10 visits to Oakland to begin with and GS is 11-5 ATS off BB road losses.
Play on: Golden State
SPORTS ADVISORS
Florida Atlantic (6-6, 6-5-1 ATS) vs. Central Michigan (8-4, 5-4-2 ATS) (at Detroit)
Florida Atlantic will try to continue its amazing late-season run when it takes on Central Michigan in the 12th annual Motor City Bowl at Detroit’s Ford Field.
After opening the season 1-5 (3-3 ATS), Florida Atlantic went 5-1 over the last six weeks (3-2-1 ATS) to earn its second consecutive postseason bid. However, the Owls needed to work overtime to seal this bowl berth, beating Florida International 57-50 as a 5½-point favorite in the regular-season finale on Nov. 29. FAU scored 28 fourth-quarter points and got 389 passing yards and five TD passes from QB Rusty Smith in the victory.
Central Michigan ended its two-year reign atop the West Division of the Mid-American Conference, as Ball State took the division crown with a 31-24 win over the Chippewas on Nov. 19 as six-point favorites. The Chippewas then finished the season with a 56-52 loss at Eastern Michigan as a 10-point favorite and are now looking to avoid their first three-game losing streak since 2004.
Florida Atlantic, which finished tied for second in the Sun Belt Conference, two games behind Troy, beat Memphis 44-27 in last year’s New Orleans Bowl, cashing as 3½-point favorites. With that win, Owls coach Howard Schnellenberger improved to 5-0 SU and ATS all-time in bowl games.
This is Central Michigan’s third straight trip to the Motor City Bowl, losing last year’s game 51-48 to Purdue but cashing in as a 7½-point underdog. Butch Jones’ squad is 1-1 SU (2-0 ATS) in this bowl game. Including two Motor City Bowls and two MAC Championship games, the Chippewas have played four times at Ford Field since the end of the 2006 season, going 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS.
This figures to be a high-scoring affair, giving both teams’ explosive offenses and shaky defenses. Central Michigan averages 30.2 points and 427.1 total yards per game, but gives up 30.8 points and 424.2 yards per contest. Meanwhile, the Owls put up 25.2 points and 391.8 yards per game, but allow 29.3 points and 401.5 total yards per outing.
Florida Atlantic is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after a spread-cover and 2-4 ATS as an underdog this season, but the Owls are 5-2 ATS in their last seven after a straight-up win. The Chippewas are on a host of solid ATS streaks, including 29-11-5 overall, 17-6-3 as a favorite and 8-1-2 after a non-cover, but they’re just 1-3-1 ATS as a chalk this season (0-2-1 ATS as a road favorite).
The Owls are on “under” streaks of 7-3 overall, 4-1 in non-conference games and 6-0 as an underdog. Conversely, the Chippewas are on “over” runs of 14-6 overall, 10-2 following a straight-up loss, 6-1 in non-conference games and 7-1 after a non-cover, but the under is 3-1 in their four games at Ford Field going back to 2006.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Houston (19-10, 15-14 ATS) at New Orleans (16-9, 10-13-2 ATS)
The Rockets have won two of three on their current four-game road trip and try to close it out with a victory over the Hornets inside New Orleans Arena.
Houston won and covered the opening two games of the in Minnesota and New Jersey to run its winning streak to four in a row before falling in Cleveland on Tuesday 99-90, narrowly missing out on the money as a 7½-point ‘dog. The offense has been the key to the Rockets’ recent surge, scoring 107 points or more in their last five victories. Over their last 17 games, the Rockets are 12-5 and have scored in triple digits in 11 of those wins.
New Orleans has dropped two in a row (0-2 ATS) after a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS). The Hornets fell 100-87 at home to the Lakers on Tuesday, failing to cash as 2½-point favorites, and then they went to Orlando yesterday and got walloped 88-68 as five-point ‘dogs. They haven’t topped the 100-point mark in seven straight games, dating back to a Dec. 10 win over Charlotte.
The Rockets have won three of the last four meetings (3-1 ATS) in this series, including a 91-82 victory as a two-point home chalk back on Nov. 15. The underdog has had the upper hand in this rivalry, going 10-4 ATS in the last 14 clashes.
Houston is on ATS streaks of 20-7 on Fridays, 7-2 against teams with a winning record and 10-1 the last 11 times it has been a ‘dog of less than five points. New Orleans is just 1-5 ATS in its last six Friday games and 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 against teams with a winning overall record, however the Hornets are on positive ATS streaks of 11-3 against teams with a winning road record and 28-10-3 when playing the second night of a back-to-back.
For the Rockets, the over is on streaks of 21-8 on the road, 8-2 against the Western Conference, 6-1 as underdogs and 5-1 when they get two days of rest. On the other hand, New Orleans is on “under” streaks of 7-0 overall, 4-0 against the Western conference, 7-1 against Southwest Division teams and 5-0 as a favorite. Finally, the under is 4-1 in the last five series clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Dallas (17-11, 13-15 ATS) at Utah (17-13, 16-14 ATS)
The Mavericks will be trying to extend their winning streak to four when they visit EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City to take on the Jazz.
Dallas is on the second night of a back-to-back and comes to Utah off Thursday’s 102-94 win in Portland, upsetting the Blazers as a 4½-point underdog. The Mavs have won two in a row (2-0 ATS) on the highway and three of their last four away from home (3-1 ATS), and they’re 10-4 ATS on the season as a visitor. The Dallas defense has been the key during its three-game winning streak, allowing just 87.3 ppg. Also, the Mavs have limited the opposition to less than 100 points in seven of its last eight contests.
Utah is back home after wrapping up a five-game Eastern Conference road trip with Tuesday’s 94-86 loss in Milwaukee as a one-point favorite. The Jazz went 2-3 (3-2 ATS) on the trip, with wins in New Jersey and Detroit. They gave up 101.2 points a game on the trip, but at home Utah allows just 94.9 ppg.
The home team won all four matchups between these two last year, with Utah going 3-1 ATS, and the host is on a 17-5-1 ATS run in the last 23 meetings. The Jazz are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine series clashes and 5-0-1 ATS when hosting Dallas in Salt Lake City.
The Mavericks are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against Northwest Division teams and 2-5 ATS in their last seven after a straight-up win, but they are on positive ATS streaks that include 8-1 on the road and 4-1 overall. Utah is on a plethora of pointspread runs, including 47-22-2 at home, 37-18-1 against Western Conference foes, 16-6 against the Southwest Division and 7-1 following a non-cover.
For Dallas, the under is on runs of 6-2 overall and 5-1 on the second night of a back-to-back, 14-6 after a spread-cover and 53-24 against Northwest Division teams. The Jazz are on “under” streaks of 9-3-1 overall, 5-0 at home, 4-0 after two days off and 5-0-1 after a straight-up loss. In this rivalry, the under is 9-3 the last 12 meetings in Utah.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and UNDER
Michael Cannon
Florida Atlantic vs. Central Michigan, at Detroit
Take the over tonight in the Motor City Bowl between Florida Atlantic and Central Michigan.
Both teams sport offenses that can score at will, and defenses that struggle to make stops.
The Owls became bowl-eligible by beating Florida International in their season finale, 57-50 in overtime. The Chippewas finished their regular season with a 56-52 loss at Eastern Michigan.
If those trends continue this game could go over the posted total by halftime.
Central Michigan averages 30.2 ppg and 427.1 ypg and allows 30.8 ppg and 424.2 ypg. The Owls averaged 35.6 ppg over their last six games and they allow 29.3 ppg and 401.5 ypg.
The Chippewas are on over streaks of 14-6 overall, 10-2 following a straight-up loss, 6-1 in non-conference games and 7-1 after a non-cover.
Take the over as this one soars past the posted number.
3* OVER
Bobby Maxwell
Minnesota at NEW YORK -6'
NBA Free winner for you tonight as we go with the Knicks at home hosting the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have lost 13 straight games and now they go into Madison Square Garden to play a Knicks team that is starting to figure how to play in coach Mike D'Antoni's style. We'll lay the chalk with New York in this one.
The Knicks have been idle since Sunday when they lost in Boston 124-105 as a 13-point underdog. This team has scored 100 or more points in seven of its last eight games and they had a streak of seven straight spread-covers snapped a week ago.
New York averages 107.2 points per game at home but the problem has been defense as they are giving up 108.2 points per contest in front of the home fans. The good news is the T'Wolves are only scoring 90.8 points per game in the last five.
Minnesota is just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games overall while the Knicks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine overall and 6-2 ATS in their last eight against Northwest Division squads. We love the Knicks in this one to win it by 15 with their high-scoring, attacking style. Play New York.
4* NEW YORK
Drew Gordon
Houston +1 at NEW ORLEANS
While some 'Cappers might be calling for the Hornets to bounce back here at home, I'm not convinced. They looked like absolute garbage last night, and maybe if they were facing a patsy tonight, we could expect a bounce back. But Houston is no patsy, and the fact they're also coming off a tough loss (at Cleveland) means they'll be just as motivated as the Hornets.
Also, while the Hornets played yesterday, the Rockets have been off since Tuesday. They got to enjoy a nice Christmas holiday, while the Hornets were busy getting their asses handed to them by the Magic. New Orleans is just 2-3-1 ATS with no rest, and the fact they're short-handed doesn't help either!
Speaking of short-handed, coach Scott made it clear that he doesn't expect Daniels or Stojakovic back until Sunday. While neither one of those guys are marquee players for New Orleans, we saw what happened against Orlando. I told you in this same spot yesterday that Rasual Butler is too inconsistent to trust in this spot, and what happened? He went 0 for 7 and was invisible for 24 minutes against the Magic (same goes for Chandler, who's hit or miss). Its a ripple effect on down, as the Hornets bench is not playing particularly well.
Finally, the Rockets got embarassed at Cleveland in their last one. McGrady played one of his worst games of the season (just 4 points in 30 minutes), and Yao was hardly impressive (shot just 3 for 10). Both of those players have far better match ups tonight, as Chandler weighs 235 lbs to Yao's 310 lbs, and T-Mac should be just fine against 2nd stringer Devin Brown. In the end, fade the Hornets here, as they've hit a rough patch, and a match up against an angry Rockets team is the last thing they need, even at home.
Take Houston plus the points over New Orleans in this NBA match up.
2* HOUSTON
Sports Gambling Hotline
Philadelphia +7 at DENVER
We will take the points with the Philadelphia 76ers tonight as they take on the slumping Denver Nuggets.
Over their last 5 games, Denver has only been able to win outright once, and they have also failed in 4 of their last 5 against the spread.
Philadelphia has underachieved this season, and they are just 5-8 both straight up, and against the spread away from home, but we get the feeling they are ready to start their after Christmas schedule with a solid effort tonight on the highway.
The Sixers have taken 2 of the last 3 series mettings with the Nuggets both straight up, and against the spread, and we think they will be close in tonight's contest.
Play on Philly plus the points.
2* PHILADELPHIA
Karl Garrett
Toronto at SACRAMENTO +2'
The G-Man stands at 30-14-1 with his comp plays the last 45 days, and tonight I will back the Sacramento Kings at home against the visiting Toronto Raptors.
It's hard for me to back a Toronto team that has played their last 3 away from home before the Christmas break, and will now start their after holiday schedule with a road game in Sacramento!
The Raptors are just 6-9 straight up on the road this year, and their last 2 visits to the Arco Arena have produced losses both straight up, and against the spread.
The Kings spent their previous 4 games on the road, and are now home for this after holiday affair. Of their 7 straight up wins this season the Kings have won 5 of them on their home hardwood.
Take any points they are giving, and roll with Sacto to come through.
2* SACRAMENTO
Lenny Del Genio
Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies
Prediction: Indiana Pacers
We were originally going to release the Pacers in this game as a premium selection, but injuries tempered our enthusiasm. Still, we are getting points against a terrible, 9-19 Memphis Grizzlies team that has dropped four straight, three of which came by double-digits. Indiana might be a fellow last-place team, but that?s because they?ve faced one of the toughest schedules in the league. Remember that this team beat the Celtics and the Lakers OUTRIGHT. We remember the win over the Lakers as we had the Pacers in that game! Indiana averages eight points per game more than does Memphis, has the best scorer on either side (Danny Granger) and has the rebounding edge as well. The Grizzlies are just 1-5 ATS as a home favorite this season. Take Indiana.
Tom Freese
Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Boston Celtics
Boston is 31-14-1 ATS when playing with no rest and they are 22-6-1 ATS away vs. teams with a losing home record. The Celtics are 13-6 ATS their last 19 games overall and they are 20-8 ATS vs. Western Conference foes. Golden St is 11-24 ATS their last 35 home games and they are 0-8-1 ATS their last 9 games vs. winning teams. The Warriors are 0-6 ATS on Friday and they are 1-6-1 ATS their last 8 games overall. PLAY ON BOSTON -
Jimmy Boyd
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver Nuggets -6.5
No Melo tonight for Denver, but no Brand for 76ers either and the Nuggets have more horses to turn to to make up production than does Philly. Denver has dropped 4 of 5 SU and ATS, but this team is rested and at home where it is 10-4 SU and a respectable 8-5-1 ATS this season. Philly, which is averaging only 91.4 ppg on the road, is not a team built to run and gun and that gives the Nugs the big edge. Denver is averaging 105.4 ppg at home this season. The Nuggets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home meetings with the 76ers and Denver is 15-3 ATS in home non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. Lay the number.
John Ryan
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers
Play: Tampa Bay Lightning +135
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Tampa Bay (NHL) – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 39-30 making 35.2 units since 1996. Play on road teams against the money line off a road win where they shut out their opponent and with a losing record in the first half of the season. Here is a second system that is a slight variation and has gone 45-39 making 31.3 units since 2002. Play on road dogs against the money line off a road win by 2 goals or more and with a losing record in the first half of the season. Florida in a poor role for this game noting they are 7-12 against the money line (-10.8 Units) in home games against terrible defensive teams that are allowing 3+ goals/game over the last 2 seasons; 6-22 against the money line (-20.4 Units) off a home win where they shut out their opponent since 1996; 9-23 against the money line (-21.6 Units) after 2 straight wins by 2 goals or more since 1996. Take Tampa Bay.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Philadelphia 76ers +6.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Philadelphia 76ers – AiS shows a 78% probability that the 76ers will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. Denver is in a poor role for this game and the 76ers are playing their best team basketball of the season. Denver is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. The 76ers last loss was against Boston and they actually led 39-37 at one point. They are not going to be a World Championship contender, but they could make a run for one of the remaining playoff positions. 76ers are 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Carmelo Anthony is out of tonight’s game due to a lingering elbow contusion and is not expected back until Sunday’s game against the Knicks. Supporting this graded play is a money line system that has gone 191-158 making 36 units since 2002. Play on road teams versus the money line being called for 21 or less fouls/game on the season and in the first half of the season. Take the 76ers.