Teddy Covers
NBA - Wizards
Foots - Maryland
Over Connecticut
Penn St
Patriots -13.5
FERRINGO FOOTBALL
COLLEGE BOWL SELECTIONS
3.5-Unit Play. Take #406 Boston College (-4) over Michigan State (5 p.m., Friday, Dec. 28)
Note: Play for 3.0 or 2.5 Units at -4.5 or -5.0 or higher, respectively.
The Spartans had a chance to spring an upset over a deflated Boston College team but now that time is over. Michigan State lost two defensive starters for this game and I think that shows that they aren’t as focused as they should be. Boston College’s seniors are the winningest group in school history and I think they go out on top. The Eagles can stop the run, neutralizing MSU’s strength, and I don’t think MSU can stop Matt Ryan. The Spartans are just 7-19 ATS on grass and 7-16 ATS in nonconference games. Boston College is 6-1 ATS in bowl games and 15-6 ATS against teams with a winning record. They are so much better than the Spartans that it is sick, and only a severe mental letdown by B.C. can prevent a blowout here.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #410 Oregon State (-5) over Maryland (8:30 p.m., Friday, Dec. 28)
The ACC stinks. If you want a decent system for this bowl season I say bet against the Big 10 and ACC blindly for the rest of the season. I'm not kidding. These conferences were awful in nonconference play, have been terrible in bowl games over the past two years, and are perpetually overrated. I think this game is going to be a blowout as a pretty tough Beavers team is able to overpower the Terps.
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 56.0 Mississippi State vs. Central Florida (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
2-Unit Play. Take #416 Mississippi State (+130) over Central Florida (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
3-Unit Play. Take #416 Mississippi State (+3) over Central Florida (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
I think we have two physical teams here and two teams that will be trading blows all afternoon long. UCF isn’t going to be able to run on a tough SEC team the same way they rolled over CUSA foes. The ‘under’ is 7-1 in UCF’s last eight games and 11-5-1 in nonconference games. The ‘under’ is also 23-9-1 after an MSU loss and 4-1 overall for the Bulldogs.
2-Unit Play. Take #458 Kentucky (-9) over Florida State (4 p.m., Monday, Dec. 31)
Note: Play up to -9.5. No play at 10.0 or higher.
I think this one is fairly obvious. I like the Wildcats in this one before whole FSU Suspension Fiasco and I don’t think the line here has properly adjusted. Kentucky beat a better Clemson team last year in their bowl game and this year they should handle the undermanned Seminoles. UK was terrible the last month of the year, but a closer look reveals that their losses were to powerhouses Tennessee (by 2), Georgia (by 11) and LSU (by 6). Two of the losses came in overtime. The ACC stinks and I think the Cats win this one by double digits.
3.5-Unit Play. Take #454 South Florida (-6) over Oregon (2 p.m., Monday, Dec. 31)
The Ducks are really on tilt. Since losing Dennis Dixon this team has gone in the tank and I just don’t trust Brady Leaf (or whoever else is quarterbacking the Ducks) in this one. This USF team is battle hardened and they have faced the type of speed they’ll be matched up against in the Sun Bowl. Oregon is 1-3 ATS in its last four bowl games and 1-5 ATS in December. USF is on a 14-6 ATS run and are 5-1 ATS in nonconference games. I think the Bulls drive the final nail in a once promising Oregon season.
4-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #468 Florida (-3.5) over Michigan AND Take #472 USC (-6.5) over Illinois
2-Unit Play. Take #472 USC (-13.5) over Illinois (5 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 1)
The Big 10 stinks. I think both of these games are going to be ugly, ugly blowouts as the Florida and USC programs are just head and shoulders above either UM or Illinois. Also, there is no doubt that Urban Meyer and Pete Carroll will have far superior game plans with the extra preparation time. All in all I think this is one of my favorite plays of the bowl season.
3.5-Unit Play. Take #466 Missouri (-3) over Arkansas (11:30 a.m., Tuesday, Jan. 1)
I think the Tigers are the better team here and that we’re getting a bargain with this spread. If it had been -7 we would have likely stayed away here. But Arkansas has had a lot of trouble with pass-happy teams this year, losing to Alabama, Kentucky, and Tennessee this season. Missouri has lost to only Oklahoma and has handled other BCS bowl teams Illinois and Kansas. I think the Tigers make a statement and avoid the letdown. Mizzou is 8-1 ATS after a loss of 20 or more points, 11-3 ATS overall, and 5-1 ATS in neutral site games. The Hogs are just 2-5 ATS in nonconference games and just 2-5 SU in their last seven bowl games.
7-Unit Play. Take #474 Georgia (-7.5) over Hawaii (8:30 p.m., Tuesday, Jan. 1)
I think this one gets ugly. I have nothing but confidence that Mark Richt, the master motivator, will have his Bulldogs ready to roll in this one. Hawaii is just 7-18 ATS against teams with a winning record and this game reminds me of when Boise State came to Athens in 2005 and got hammered by 35 points. Hawaii is 4-7 ATS as road dogs
4-7 as road dogs and is 10-15 ATS off the islands since 2003. Georgia is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 bowl games and 3-2 ATS in its last five. I think they dominate this one from start to finish and position themselves in the preseason Top 5 for next year.
4.5-Unit Play. Take LSU (-4) over Ohio State (9 p.m., Monday, Jan. 7)
LSU isn't as good as it thinks it is. But they are still better than Ohio State. I do see a defensive struggle but I think that the difference - just like in last year's blowout - will be the speed of the Tigers. The Buckeyes simply do not matchup against that type of speed and athleticism in the Big 10. Ohio State has virtually no wins that impress me other than a blowout at Penn State. But even the Lions proved that they aren't very good. The Buckeyes simply don't deserve to be in this game, and are not in the same class as LSU. The Tigers will not blowout OSU like Florida managed to last year but this will be a convincing victory for the SEC.
NFL SELECTIONS
2.5-Unit Play. Take Chicago (+2) over New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 40.0 New Orleans at Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)
Fade the "Must Win" teams in Week 17 - especially ones that are favored at home. The Saints do not play any defense at all, making them a dicey bet at any time. They had trouble in the slop of Soldiers Field last January and I think they will struggle again this year. I think both teams are going to move the ball and I know the Bears have enough pride to play this one for a win and end a long season on a positive note.
2-Unit Play. Take Carolina (-2.5) over Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)
The Bucs are going to be resting just about every key player and are already looking ahead to a matchup with the Giants next weekend. Carolina has been improving over the past month and these guys are still playing (and coaching) for their jobs next year. This is a divisional game so there is definitely extra motivation on the side of the Panthers to lay one on Tampa Bay.
2-Unit Play. Take San Francisco (+10) over Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)
Fade the "Must Win" teams in Week 17. The Browns are desperate but they don't stop people. San Francisco stunned Denver in Mile High to close out last year and I think they could do the same in this situation. The Browns have to be feeling a bit down after last week's crushing loss at Cincinnati. The Niners are playing better and I don't see them rolling over in this one.
2.5-Unit Play. Take Houston (-6) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 30)
The Texans have had the Jags' number over the past three years when the two teams are playing straight. Now mix in the fact that the Jags will likely be resting their key parts in order to gear up for the postseason and Houston could hang a big number up. The Texans are looking for the franchise's eighth win of the season and that's a mark that means something to them. I think they get their win by pulling away late and laying a big one on a division rival.
1-Unit Play. FIRST HALF: Take New England (-9.5) over New York Giants (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
Note: If the Patriots do not cover this halftime number I, personally, will be doubling down on either the third quarter line or the second half line. I just don't see a scenario where the Pats don't destroy the G-Men, who don't have the corners to slow down the N.E. offense. Have to play it by ear.
Even if the Giants play their starters, their secondary will get shredded by the New England attack. The Pats will enter this game motivated and will try to put this one away early. They know they will have two weeks before their next game and they do not want to face the wrath of Belichick of they play a sloppy game. The Pats are going to put a bow on their perfect regular season and there really isn't much New York can do about it.
STRIKE POINT
2-Unit Play. #410 Take Oregon State -5 over Maryland (12/28 - 8:30 pm)
This game is just a mismatch, particularly with the Terps' inability to establish a consistent pass attack and the Beavers' top ranked run defense. Maryland will be forced to throw the ball because Oregon State has been stellar against the run, and OSU is just as efficient in taking the ball away against the pass. The Beavers do well to make turnovers into points and that gives them a definite advantage. Here we'll see a double digit victory by the team playing arguably the best football finishing the regular season. Oregon State will keep it going with a nice win.
Kelso
10 units BC -5 v. Mich St
10 units TCU -6.5 v. Houston
10 units Md/Oreg ST UNDER 47
3-5 in Bowls and -34 units in Bowls
Red Zone Sports
Under Maryland/ore State Huge
Insider Sports Report
4* Maryland +4.5 over Oregon St. (NCAAF)
Range +6 to +2.5
4* Michigan St./Boston College (NCAAF) UNDER 56.5
Range 58.5 to 54.5
3* T.C.U. -6 over Houston (NCAAF)
Range -4.5 to -8
Elite Sports Picks
Michigan St./Boston College (NCAAF) UNDER 56.5
Discount Sports Picks
10* Maryland/Oregon St. (NCAAF) UNDER 47
5* Michigan St. +4.5 over Boston College (NCAAF)
Erik Scheponik
Texas Bowl @Houston, TX
TCU vs. Houston
This year?s Texas Bowl is aptly named, and shoulddraw a nice little turnout with two solid instateprograms doing battle here. Houston HC Art Brileswill not coach the Cougars here, as he leaves forBaylor. Briles turned the UH program around,leading the team to 4 bowl games in his 5 years,after they made only 2 in the previous 15 years. Hisexciting offense did not skip a beat despite losingKevin Kolb to the Philadelphia Eagles after lastseason. This year?s offense. Led by redshirtfreshman QB Case Keenum, was the best of Briles?tenure here, scoring 36 points per game, andranking 4th in the nation at 513 yards per game. Itwill be interesting to see how this team, and mainlythis high-powered offense responds, as they will becoached by cornerback coach and recruitingcoordinator Chris Thurmond for the bowl game.TCU had some injuries to key players early on bothsides of the ball early on and that contributedgreatly to an unimpressive 4-4 start. However, theygot somewhat healthy and finished strong, going 3-1SU/ATS down the stretch, including a respectable27-22 loss at BYU, and a 37-0 massacre of NewMexico. The college football coaching carousel hassomehow avoided Gary Patterson again thus far,and although it wouldn?t shock me if he wassnatched up late in the game, he is, for now, stayingput. Patterson?s program is built on defense, andthis year is no different, as TCU ranked 16thnationally in total defense (320 ypg) and scoringdefense (19ppg). The Horned Frogs held the bowlteams on their schedule to only 4.3 yards per play, anumber surpassed by only USC and Ohio St. Bycomparison, UH allows 6.0 ypplay to thebowlers ontheir schedule.This would be an interesting chess match if ArtBriles were on the Houston sideline. However, he?snot, and therefore I have to side with TCU. The UHspread offense uses tons of misdirection andspecializes in mismatches and getting theirplaymakers in space. The quarterback looks to thesideline on most plays, and then makes the call. Icannot fathom Keenum getting the same input fromthe sideline now that not only Briles, but BOTH OFHIS OFFENSIVE COORDINATORS are now at Baylor.Patterson and his DC Dick Bumpus will have theirrugged defense prepared here, and despite theirtalent, I?m not sure the Cougars offense will be ableto adjust with their current coaching situation.TCU should improve to 4-2 SU, 4-1-1 ATS in bowlsunder Patterson.
TCU by 11.
THE SUNSHINE FORECAST
Friday, December 28, 2007
Michigan State(+3) vs. Boston College [Champs Sports Bowl]
Power Rating Projection:
Michigan State 28 Boston College 27
Statistical Projections
Michigan State 27
Rushing Yards: 131
Passing Yards: 228
Turnovers: 1 Boston College 33
Rushing Yards: 116
Passing Yards: 329
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Michigan State 30 Boston College 29
Texas Christian(-3?) vs. Houston [Texas Bowl]
Power Rating Projection:
Texas Christian 32 Houston 24
Statistical Projections
Texas Christian 30
Rushing Yards: 157
Passing Yards: 241
Turnovers: 2 Houston 21
Rushing Yards: 149
Passing Yards: 206
Turnovers: 3
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas Christian 34 Houston 27
Maryland(+4) vs. Oregon State [Emerald Bowl]
Power Rating Projection:
Oregon State 26 Maryland 24
Statistical Projections
Maryland 22
Rushing Yards: 80
Passing Yards: 221
Turnovers: 2 Oregon State 23
Rushing Yards: 163
Passing Yards: 187
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Oregon State 26 Maryland 24
BRW Sports Advisors
TCU vs Houston
TCU -4
Stan Sharp
Michigan St
Maddux
Tcu -6.5
Mike Volpe is 10-2 overall in bowl games (sides and totals) and up +34 Units
Champs Sports BowlDecember 28, 20075 PM ET on ESPNMichigan State Spartans (O/U 57) versus the Boston College Eagles -4 Another game where the books are begging you to bet the favorite. Boston College has a ten win season going and Heisman candidate Matt Ryan at QB. The Spartans are only 7-5 but played a hell of a schedule. Michigan State beat Bowl teams, Penn State, Purdue and lost three heart breakers to Bowl bound Michigan (By 3 points), Wisconsin (by 3 points ) and #1 Ohio State (by 7)
5 * Play on Michigan State Spartans +4 10)
Texas BowlDecember 28, 20078 PM ET on NFL NetworkHouston Cougars (O/U 62) versus TCU Horned Frogs -3.5 TCU looks to redeem a disappointing season with a Bowl win over in state rivals Houston. The Cougars face a rough road against one of the Nations best defenses.Look for a low scoring TCU Cover and win
3 * Play on the TCU Horned Frogs -3.5
4* Bonus Play on the UNDER 62
Emerald BowlDecember 28, 20078:30 PM on ESPNMaryland Terrapins (O/U 48.5) versus Oregon State Beavers -4.5 On paper this game looks like a mis match. The Oregon State Beavers roll into the post season winners of three straight and six of their last seven games. The Terps did not even break .500 going just 6-6. But the Terps have lost only one non conference game against the spread and the PAC 10 is just horrible as favorites in Bowl games. Going for brokeOn this one as I will take the Terps OUTRIGHT for a 5* Play
5* Play on Maryland +160
3* Bonus Play on the OVER
Northcoast Infomercial
Totals POW
Arizona over
Scott Spreitzer
3* UConn -4
Billy Coleman
4* Pacers under 200
Pointwise Phones
3* Mich. St.
4* Air Force, Fresno St., South Florida
3* Wake Forest, Oklahoma, Colorado
2* Hawaii, Kanas
INDIAN COWBOY
Siena +2 POD
Marist +5
Mich St./BC over 56.5
Maryland +5
Maryland/Ore. St. over 47
M. Cannon
Lost 50 dime on ASU last night...
30 Dime –
TCU
Take Tcu minus the points over Houston in the Texas Bowl.
Much has been made about West Virginia’s Rich Rodriguez leaving for Michigan, and Houston can certainly relate.
Coach Art Briles left the Cougars for the Baylor job and current assistant Chris Thurmond will assume the responsibilities.
But it won’t be an easy task, as Briles took his top two offensive assistants with him, and Thurmond will have to find a way to keep the players motivated as they wait for Kevin Sumlin to come onboard.
Houston was all about offense this year, but they’re going to face a Tcu defense that held seven opponents to season-low – or second low – yardage totals. The Horned Frogs are a much more physical group at the line of scrimmage than the Cougars have faced this year.
Tcu’s offense also picked up steam down the stretch, scoring 138 points in the last four games.
Tcu is 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in bowls since 1998.
Houston is 0-5 SUATS in bowls against an opponent off a SU win.
The fact the Cougars played the weakest schedule of all the bowl teams doesn’t help them now that head coach Briles has jumped ship.
Take Tcu minus the points as they grab the win and cover in the Texas Bowl.
10 Dime –
MICHIGAN STATE
Take the points with Michigan State today over Boston College in the Champs Sports Bowl.
There should be a significant emotional advantage for the Spartans. First of all, they never expected to be here in the first place. They rallied down the stretch under first-year coach Mark Dantonio, winning convincingly at Purdue then coming back from a 17-point deficit to beat Penn State in the finale.
Those wins secured the Spartans spot in this bowl and they are motivated about it.
Michigan State is also well represented by its fans, while Boston College doesn’t receive much support on the road from its faithful.
The other aspect of this game is how disappointed Boston College must feel going from National Championship aspirations in early November, to playing in a pre-New Year’s Day bowl game. It’s no secret they had their sights set on a bigger goal and they could fall victim to the letdown factor here.
Big 10 bowl dogs are 20-9-1 ATS against an opponent off a SU loss.
Take the points with Michigan State as they keep it close against Boston College.
MAGIC
Take the Magic as the small road chalk tonight over the Heat.
Stan Van Gundy knows Pat Riley more than anybody in the league, having been his former assistant and the ex-head coach of the Heat.
Van Gundy would like nothing more than to exact some revenge here on this floor, especially after the Magic buried the Heat, 120-99, at home last month.
The Magic have the motivation and matchup edges to cover this small number fairly easily.
It’s Miami’s third game in four nights and Shaquille O’Neal will have to deal with Dwight Howard all by himself, since Alonzo Mourning is out.
Take the Magic as the small road chalk as they grab the easy win and cover.
ALEX SMART (comp)
Oregon State -4.5
The Oregon State Beavers [8-4, 6-3 Pacific-10 Conference] and the Maryland Terrapins [6-6, 3-5 Atlantic Coast Conference] will meet for the first time ever when they do battle in the 2007 version of the Emerald Bowl. Oregon State enters into this game on a roll winning 6 of their L/7 games with the only loss coming to conference power house USC with their star RB Yvenson Bernard(1037 Yds, 12 TDs) out because of injury. Their opponents Maryland are no slouches either, and have wins against top tier programs Boston College and Rutgers this season. Bottom line: These are two pretty good teams, but Im a fan of the Beavers HC Mike Riley , who have never lost a Bowl game with a 6-0 record, as the top guy in with his current team and as and as the offensive cooridnator with the USC Trojans. Final notes & Key Trends: Oregon State is ranked 12th in the NCAA in total defense, allowing 313 yards per game , while ranking first in the nation against the run,allowing just 2.1 YPC. The Terps are 9-21 ATS L/30 away from home, against rush Ds, that allow 120 yard per game or less.
BrandX confirmed! He is 10-1 in Bowl Games. Rating is 1* to 5*
5* Michigan State +4
5* Maryland ML (+160)
4* TCU Under 62
3* Maryland OVER
3* TCU