Drew Gordon
Friday Picks:
1. 200,000* Texas Christian
2. 50,000* Magic
3. 50,000* Butler
1. Texas Christian- It maybe cliche, but the fact of the matter is "offense wins games, but defense wins championships." That statement couldn't be more true in tonight's Texas Bowl, as Houston beings their high-octane attack to the table, but they've yet to see a defense like the Horned Frogs and I say they get exposed by TCU in this one.
Let's start with defense, as the Horned Frogs are anchored by their D-line, featuring star DT Blake and less-publisized, but still talented Ortiz, allowing 109 rushing yards per game on only 3.0 yards per carry! The Horned Frogs secondary has benefited from the D-line's ability to pressure, allowing 211 passing yards on an excellent 12 TD to 16 INT ratio. Cougars are as balanced as any team in the NCAA offensively, but as you can plainly see, so is the Horned Frogs defense.
Probably the most significant factor in my siding with TCU is that 3 of Houston's coaches, including heach coach Briles and both OCs, bolted for Baylor and will not be available tonight. Besides the obvious emotional tail-spin the Cougars must be going through, the fact DC Thurmond has said he may hire a coach to help him through the bowl game, immediately tells me he's in over his head. One has to wonder: Will the Cougars attack have the same bite without either of their offensive coordinators?
Finally, while the Horned Frogs offense is still a bit raw behind QB Andy Dalton, it helps that RB Joseph Turner is coming off the best game of his life (on the road no less), rushing for 226 yards and 4 TDs at San Diego State! Look for heavy doses of Turner again tonight, as the Cougars defense is below average at best, allowing almost 30 ppg on 365 yards of total offense. Once they establish the run, Dalton will be free to operate without impunity. End result: a solid win and cover for this Horned Frogs squad!
Take Texas Christian comfortably over Houston as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Magic- While Orlando isn't playing at the level they were in November, they're still a far superior team to the Heat, especially now that Alonzo Mourning is done for the year. Mourning was the Heat's only true defensive option against Dwight Howard. He'll have his way with O'Neal, who's laziness on both ends of the court is reaching epic proportions.
Unless you've been living under a rock, you know the Magic have been a cash-machine on the road, going 15-3 ATS on the season. They capable of imposing their will on opposing teams thanks to Howard, who is the best bigman in the NBA right now. Double him and Lewis and Turkoglu will destroy your defense from the perimeter.. Its a formula that used to work for Shaquille back when he gave a damn.
As good as the Magic have been on the road, the Heat have been almost as bad at home, going 4-9 SUATS in Miami. In fact, the Heat are an atrocious 7-19 ATS over their last 26 home games, and I don't see that trend turning around any time soon. Dwayne Wade cannot carry this offense all by himself, and the Heats lack of a 3-point threat has teams playing "packed-in" preventing Wade or Shaq from using space.
Finally, consider the Van Gundy factor, as no one knows this Heat team better. You have to believe he wants to win this game BAD, and knowing that will only motivate himself and his players more. The Heat meanwhile are busy losing to teams like the 76ers, which should say a lot about their competitiveness right now!
Orlando adds another notch to their road ATS record, as they get the solid road win and cover tonight in Miami.
Take the Magic over the Heat in this NBA match up.
3. Butler- Salukis are a better offensive team at home, but when I say "better," I mean they're better than below average. Its no secret Southern Illinois relies on their defense to make up for offensive deficiencies, but in this case, they're in over their heads against a strong Butler team tonight.
Almost polar opposites, the Bulldogs live and die by their rock-solid perimeter attack, hitting almost 41% of their 3-pointers on the season! Salukis will be hard-pressed to limit the Bulldogs, especially the way they've been playing defense of late, allowing opponents to shoot 46% from the field and 36% from 3-point over their last 5 games... Nowhere near good enough to win this game.
Also important to note is the return of the Bulldogs best 3-point shooter, F Peter Campbell. He's seen limited action in two games back, but should be ready to rock and roll tonight. There's no question the Bulldogs offense suffered in his absence, as his 46% shooting from beyond the arc, coupled with his size (6'7) were srely missed.
Finally, make mistake, Butler isn't afraid of the highway, going 10-4 ATS over their last 14 road games. What's been more impressive is their defense in hostile territory, limiting opponents to just 49 ppg. Bulldogs are simply the more polished team on both ends of the floor. While I expect the Salukis will keep this game competitive on their home floor, at some point they'll hit a dry spell, and that's when the Bulldogs capitalize.
Take Butler over Southern Illinois in this college hoops match up.
Wolkosky Milan
351-277-14 last one hundred twenty four days
21-8-1 last six days!
3-2 Yesterday
Today:
10* MICHIGAN STATE +5
10* MSU/BC UNDER 57½
10* TCU -6
10* MARYLAND +5
10* SACRAMENTO -3½
10* HOU/MEM UNDER 194
10* WAS/NJN OVER 190
Lenny Del Genio
20* Bowl Blowout of the Month (9-1 FB Run)! - Friday
Play on Boston College at 5:00 ET
When trying to see how teams match up against each other, the first stat we look at is rushing yards. While Boston College doesn't run much (107 yards per game), that weakness is masked by quarterback Matt Ryan and the passing offense (330 yards per game). One thing Boston College does do well is stop the run, only allowing 68 rushing yards per contest, and 2.2 yards per rush. This is in big contrast with Michigan State, who allows 134 rushing yards per game and an even worse 193 rushing yards per road game and 4.7 yards per carry. The Spartans have a balance offensive attach, rushing for 200 yards per time out with 226 passing yards. We don't think Michigan State will be able to run the ball here, thus forcing their scoring unit out of sync. Boston College has two less losses on the season (3 to Michigan State's 5), and have faced better competition (Golden Eagles beat Virginia Tech and Clemson on the road while the Spartans best win was against Penn State). Look for the Eagles to jump out to an early lead by controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and for the defense to hold on for the easy win. Play on Boston College.
20* Emerald Bowl Winner (9-1 FB Run)!
Play on Maryland at 8:30 ET
8-4 Oregon State is a decent favorite against 6-6 Maryland, but we like the Terps chances to pull the mild upset here. While Maryland hasn't had a superb season, we're a bit impressed with their ability to play up to their opponents. The Terrapins have had some big wins this year. They won by ten at Rutgers as big 17.5-point dogs back in late September, beat Georgia Tech at home, beat Boston College by a touchdown and shutout NC State 37-0 when they needed a win to become bowl eligible. All of those wins came in the underdog role. Now they'll face an Oregon State team that has won and covered six of their last seven, but we feel that gives us some line value here. Oregon State's wins have come against some inferior opponents. Starting with the most recent wins, they beat a depleted Oregon team, took care of business against the Washington twins, were dismantled by USC, and then beat Stanford. That schedule doesn't really make us too nervous. With both teams offenses and defenses being virtually equal, we'll take the points with the team that has been better tested, and has shown they can rise to the occasion. Play on Maryland.
Cash & Profit Experts
CFB
Michigan St +5
Oregon St -4.5
NBA
Milwaukee /chicago Under 191
Orlando -3.5
Wayne Root
Chairman - Mich St
Millionaire - Houston
Money Maker - So Carolina (hoop)
No Limit - Maryland
Keith Martin sports (16-8-1 college totals)
Santa Clara Over 112.5
Southern Illinois Over 118
LARRY NESS
L. Ness' Weekly Wipeout Winner -CFB (67% BKB run TY!)
My Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Butler at 9:00 ET.
It would be easy to focus on these set of facts regarding Southern Illinois. The Salukis are 16-1 at home since the start of last season, as well as an incredible 82-4 at SIU Arena since the start of the 2001-02, posting a 35-3 mark against non-conference opponents. That includes a 71-56 victory over then-No. 24 Saint Mary's on Dec 11. However, that would only be telling HALF the story. There is no denying that the Salukis have won five of the last six Missouri Valley Conference titles but they are just 5-5 this year, with some notable "bad losses." They lost to USC 70-45 on a neutral court, at Charlotte, St Louis and Western Michigan, scoring 56, 51 and 41 points, respectively. They also lost at home to then-No. 15 Indiana, 64-51. Clearly, the Salukis are having trouble shooting the ball. SIU is not deep plus features just two 6-7 players inside. While Shaw (13.7-5.4) and Falker (12.9-7.0) are effective players, the team's lack of offense is 'killing' them TY. In comes Butler, one of the nation's top defensive teams, allowing just 57.3 PPG! Butler is 11-1 (lone loss was 43-42 at Wright State on Dec 8). While some teams have fattened up on easy early-season schedules, Butler already boasts victories over Virginia Tech, Texas Tech, Ohio State and Florida State. Most impressively, Butler has played just three games on its home court TY. Graves (16.8) and Green (14.7) are a deadly backcourt duo plus 6-7 senior Campbell (11.7-3.2) is back in the lineup (missed three games), joining 6-7 freshman forward Howard (11.5-5.3). Throw in swingmen Betko (6.9) and Streicher (5.8) and the Bulldogs are one heckuva a team. If that's not enough, the 17th-ranked Bulldogs have the extra motivation of trying to avenge last season's loss to Southern Illinois. Butler had a 22-game homecourt win streak before Southern Illinois ended that with a 68-64 win at Hinkle Fieldhouse last Feb 17. Home court or not, SIU is in over its head here! Weekly Wipeout Winner on Butler
Brandon Lang
FRIDAY
15 DIME - TCU
10 DIME - Butler
5 DIME - Michigan State, Ole Miss and Lakers
JASON BELL
THREE 2000* BOWL LOCKS
Michigan State +5.5 over Boston College
TCU -6 over Houston
Maryland +5 over Oregon State
Jimmy Kruger
TCU -6 over Houston - Bronze 3*
Maryland +5 over Oregon State - Bronze 3*
Bob Balfe
College Football
Boston College -5 over Michigan State
BC could be playing in a lot bigger bowl game, but didn't play to well down the stretch, but this is Matt Ryan's last game and he will want to improve his draft status with a big win today. Mich State has a few linebackers who will miss this game which will make it easy for BC to run and throw all day. Boston College is the better team and should roll.
Houston +6.5 over TCU
This line keeps moving due to the success of the Mountain West in bowl games so far this week. First, TCU is not one of the better teams in that conference and their road defense is pretty bad. Houston's defense stinks, but their offense is awesome. I just cannot see them getting crushed in this game and 6.5 is just way to many points for a TCU team that puts up 26pts a game.
Maryland +5 over Oregon State
Usually teams that travel far to bowl games do well. I guess it goes under the theory if we are coming out all this way we better try to win. Oregon State has a few skill guys banged up and their good run defense will be tested by Maryland huge offensive line. The Terps beat a couple of good teams this season playing smash mouth football. Look for the Terps to get the outright victory.
(All hoops wagers should be 1/3 of your average football wager)
NBA Basketball
Magic -3.5 over Heat
College Basketball
Southern Illinois +1 over Butler
Kendall Holiday
Sport: College Football
Game: TCU Horned Frogs @ Houston Cougars - Friday December 28, 2007 8:00 pm
Pick: 3 units (Free Play) ATS: TCU Horned Frogs -6.5 (-108)
TCU has a lot going for it in this bowl game as they are the better team from the better conference, and they still have their HC, and OC's. Houston was shunned by HC Art Briles, who unexpectedly left with the OC's for Baylor at the end of the season. Houston has been a spread attack offense, and it will be interesting to see if the coaches departure has an effect on their offensive output this evening. One thing is for sure, in order to stop a spread, you need to be able to pressure the QB, and have athletic linebackers who can defend the short routes in pass plays. TCU possesses these and then some and has a significant advantage statistically on defense in this football game. This is also the most healthy TCU will have been since the beginning of the season and we look for them to get it done in Houston today
NORTHCOAST
Late Phone Selections:
3* TCU -6 vs Houston (Texas Bowl) @ 8 pm ET
(System 1: Houston 36.5 pt play #23 of 32 and System #2 TCU 6.5 pt play #29 of 32)
Top Opinions
Over 57 Michigan St/Boston College (Triple Play) Marquee Totals Play
Under 47 Maryland/Oregon St (Double Play) Marquee Totals Play
Maryland +5 vs Oregon St (Emerald Bowl) @8:30 pm ET
(System 1: Maryland 80 pt play #11 of 32 and System #2 Maryland 43 pt play #7 of 32)
Regular Opinions
Michigan St +5 vs Boston College (Champs Sports Bowl) @ 5 pm ET
(System 1 Boston College 26 pt play #25 of 32 and System 2 Boston College 9 pt play #26 of 32)
Under 57.5 TCU/Houston (Single Play) Marquee Totals Play
BURNS
B. Burns' #1 NBA Total of the Week (31-8 L39 NBA Totals!)
I'm playing on the Lakers and Jazz to finish UNDER the total.
These teams have played a pair of high-scoring games against each other already this season. While those results have helped cause tonight's number to be even higher than it was for either of the first two meetings, I'm expecting a much lower-scoring contest. The Jazz managed only 90 points last time out, combining with Dallas for 189. That result brought the UNDER to 7-2 their last nine games. The Lakers come off a high-scoring game. However, that wasn't a typical day or a typical opponent as the game came on Christmas Day and the opponent was Phoenix, the highest-scoring team in the league. Including the Phoenix result, the Lakers have still seen the UNDER go 5-3 their past eight games. Note that the the other two of those games which finished "over" both had combined scores of 207 points or less. In other words, both those games would have still fallen beneath tonight's larger number. While Kobe and co. can certainly put up the points, the Jazz have been playing low-scoring games when matched up against high-scoring teams. In fact, the UNDER is 9-3 the last 12 times that Utah faced a team which averages 99 or more points per game. Looking at the last 20 times that the Jazz traveled here and we find that the over/under lines ranged from a low of 182 to a high of only 205.5. Look for tonight's final combined score to stay below tonight's bigger number, with the UNDER improving to 6-2 when the Jazz have played on a Friday night this season. *Total of the Week
B. burns' 2-Game NBA/CBB Friday POWER Report
This 2-Game card includes a play on SOUTHERN ILLINOIS and a play on the OVER in the Suns/Clippers game.
I'm playing on SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. Butler has gotten off to another impressive start this season. However, this is no ordinary venue. The Bulldogs were beaten by the Salukis at Butler last season. Tonight, in their first game following Christmas, they travel to the SIU Arena where the Salukis are an awesome 82-4 since the start of the 2001-02, posting a 35-3 mark against non-conference opponents. That includes a 16-1 mark the last 17 here with the lone loss coming vs. an Indiana squad which was ranked #15 at the time. In their most recent game here, the Salukis knocked off a solid Western Kentucky team by 10 points. Their previous home game came against #25 St. Mary's and the Salukis won by 15. Despite those victories and their extremely impressive home record in recent years, the Salukis find themselves listed as very slight underdogs. That's worth mentioning as we find the Bulldogs at a money-burning 9-16 ATS (10-15 SU) the last 25 times that they were listed as road favroites of three points or less (or pick'em) including a 2-4 SU/ATS mark in that role the past two seasons. On the other hand, the Salukis are a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times they were listed as underdogs of four points or less, winning all four games outright. Look for them to continue their homecourt dominance tonight, improving to 8-0 SU/ATS the last eight times that they played a home "lined" game on a Friday Night. *Friday Night Blowout
I'm playing on the Suns and Clippers to finish OVER the total. These teams played a relatively low-scoring game last night. However, that was at LA where the Clippers were able to slow things down, not that it did them much good! With tonight's game at Phoenix and with the teams playing back to back games, I expect the Suns to really push the tempo. Prior to last night's 196 combined points, the Suns had seen their previous three games average a whopping 225 points, each of them producing a minimum of 213. For the season, their home games are averaging 213.8 points. Note that the Suns have seen the OVER go 10-7 the last 17 times that they played the second of back to back games. The most recent two times they played a home game, after playing the previous night, resulted in combined scores of 228 and 217. Meanwhile, we find the OVER at 3-0 the last three times that the Clippers played the second of back to back games and a highly profitable 7-1 the last eight times that they played a road game, following a game the previous night. While the last series meeting here in Phoenix slipped below the total (finished with 207) the OVER remains a profitable 11-5 the last 16 times that the Clippers traveled to Phoenix. I'm expecting another high-scoring affair this evening with the OVER improving to 4-1 the last five times the Suns were listed as home favorites of 12.5 or more points. *Friday Night Shootout
Alex Smart
Michigan State +5.0 / 2 units
Houston +6.0 / 2 units
Fairfield +1.0 / 2 units
EZ Winners
2 STAR: (508) MEMPHIS (+1) over Houston
(Risking $220 to win $200)
2 STAR: (517) MINNESOTA (+9) over Portland
(Risking $220 to win $200)
2 STAR: (519) PHILADELPHIA (+3.5) over Sacramento
(Risking $220 to win $200)
2* ND St -4'
2* Sac State +10
PPP (Joe Gavassi):
3* Maryland under
2* TCU
2* Maryland
1* Michigan St.
Russ Culver college football
407) TCU -6
405) Michigan State +200
409) Maryland +190
408) TCU-Houston UNDER 57 1/2
410) Maryland-Oregon State UNDER 47
Rocketman CBB
Rocketman Sports plays are rated 1-5 units!
CBB St Joseph's @ Siena 7:00 PM EST
Play On: 3* St Joseph's -1 1/2
Siena is allowing 77.6 points per game overall this year. St Joseph's is 59-39 ATS on the road last 98. ST JOSEPHS is 35-19 ATS in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days since 1997. ST JOSEPHS is 69-45 ATS in road games after playing a game as favorite since 1997. SIENA is 6-17 ATS after 2 straight games making 78% of their free throws or better since 1997.
We'll play St Joseph's for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky