Friday's Early Bowl Tips

Friday's Early Bowl Tips
December 28, 2017
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

**Texas A&M vs. Wake Forest**

Belk Bowl History

-- The Wake Forest Demon Deacons (7-5 straight up, 8-3-1 against the spread) of the Atlantic Coast Conference meet the Texas A&M Aggies (7-5 straight up, 7-4-1 against the spread) of the Southeastern Conference in a Power 5 matchup at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C. for the Belk Bowl. If you've always wondered, Belk is a department store chain primarily in the Southeastern part of the United States, and the company signed an extension to the original three-year deal which now will run through 2019.

-- The Demon Deacons fired out of the chute with four straight victories, and three covers in a row, routing FCS Presbyterian, Boston College on the road and Utah State at home. They faced a difficult trip to Appalachian State on Sept. 23, but passed that test with a 20-19 win, although it marked their first non-cover of the season. The Deacs were tripped up at home on Sept. 30 as a seven-point underdog, 26-19, losing for the first time against Florida State. They put up a valiant effort the following week on Oct. 7 at Clemson, but slipped up 28-14. The season looked to be getting away from them a bit with a 14-point loss at Georgia Tech on Oct. 21, but they recovered for wins down the stretch against Louisville, at Syracuse and, perhaps most impressively, against North Carolina State, to finish two games over .500. They also covered four of their final five outings.

-- Wake Forest ranked 28th overall in the nation in total yards with 450.8 per game, and they checked in 35th with 266.6 passing yards per outing, which posting a respectable 184.2 yards per game on the ground to rank 45th. The Deacs were 30th in scoring with 33.7 points per game, and their field-goal percentage ranked ninth (86.4 percent) overall. On the defensive side of the ball, Wake struggled. They allowed 444.2 yards per game to check in 107th in the nation, while yielding 252.6 yards per game through the air to finish 104th in the country. Somehow, some way they had a bend, but don't break defense, allowing 26.3 points per outing to check in a middling 63rd in scoring defense.

-- On offense, it starts with senior QB John Wolford, who completed 63.7 percent of his pass attempts for 2,792 yards, 25 touchdowns and six interceptions. He also was a dual-threat quarterback, running 125 times for 615 yards and a team-high 10 rushing touchdowns. It's amazing with the press many QBs like Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, etc. receive, not as many are discussing Wolford. He appears to have the tools to succeed at the next level. WR Greg Dortch was his top target, gathering 53 balls for 722 yards and a team-high nine scores. WRs Tabari Hines (45-625-5) and Scotty Washington (36-573-2) were impressive at times, and TE Cam Serigne (35-444-8) has NFL-level ability, too.

-- Texas A&M was rather marginal on both sides of the ball this season. They weren't great, but they weren't bad in any one area, either. The Aggies checked in 79th in total yards with 389.6 per game, they were 65th in passing yards per game (230.6), 73rd in rushing yards (159.0) and 44th in scoring offense (31.1 PPG). On defense, they were a rather ordinary 64th in the country allowing 388.7 yards per contest, they were 66th against the pass (223.6), 66th against the rush (165.1) and they yielded 28.7 points per showing to finish 81st in the land. Perhaps the mediocrity is a big reason Kevin Sumlin was jettisoned, and the team made a hiring splash by bringing over Jimbo Fisher from Florida State.

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-- QB Nick Starkel appears to have as firm of a grip on the starting job as he has had all season. He completed 57.0 percent of his attempts for 1,294 yards, 10 touchdowns and five interceptions while posting 9.1 yards per attempt. QB Kellen Mond was not nearly as effective, although it's likely he sees some time in this game. He completed 51.5 percent of his passes for 1,375 yards, eight touchdowns and six interceptions. He also ran for 340 yards and three scores. RBs Trayveon Williams and Keith Ford were effective at times, but Williams managed just 4.4 yards per carry. He posted a team-high 733 yards and seven scores, while Ford was the hammer on short-yardage and goal-line situations. He averaged 4.0 yards per tote with 11 touchdowns. There doesn't appear to be another Mike Evans in the wide receiver group, although WR Christian Kirk is the best of the lot with a team-best 730 yards and seven scores. WR Damion Ratley is the deep threat with 23.2 yards per game, totaling 603 yards and six scores. WR Jhamon Ausbon finished with a respectable 459 yards on 38 grabs. WR Camron Buckley is a red zone threat, converting three of his 13 catches for scores.

-- In the kicking game, Daniel LaCamera showed he has a lot of leg, hitting a 52-yard field goal this season. He posted 17 field goals and 44 extra points this season.

-- Wake enters this game on a roll against the number. They're 4-1 ATS over the past five overall, 4-1 ATS in their past five non-conference games, 8-2 ATS in the past 10 against teams with a winning overall record and 4-0 ATS in their past four neutral-site games. They have also covered in each of their past four bowl appearances.

-- The 'over' is 4-1 in Wake Forest's past five non-conference battles, and 4-1 in their past five following a straight-up loss. However, the 'under' is 5-2 in their past seven appearances on a grass surface.

-- A&M has a solid 5-2 ATS mark in their past seven neutral-site games, but that's where the impressive trends end. They're just 3-8 ATS in their past 11 bowl games, 16-37-1 ATS in their past 54 against teams with a winning overall record, 5-16 ATS in their past 21 following a straight-up loss and 0-5 ATS in their past five tries against ACC teams.

-- Wake doesn't have an extensive bowl history, but what they have is very good. They have won three of their past four bowls overall, including a 24-10 win over Connecticut in the 2007 version of this game (then the Meineke Car Care Bowl). Overall they're a respectable 7-4 in 11 bowl appearances.

-- A&M would like to improve on their 17-21 bowl record. They were making inroads with four straight bowl victories from 2011-14, but they dropped the 2015 Music City Bowl against ACC member Louisville, and the 2016 Texas Bowl to Kansas State last season.

-- This will be the first-ever meeting on the gridiron between these institutions.

-- Kickoff is slated for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**North Carolina State vs. Arizona State**

Sun Bowl History

-- In the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas, the North Carolina State Wolfpack (8-4 straight up, 4-7-1 against the spread) from the ACC will square off with the Arizona State Sun Devils (7-5 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) from the Pac-12 Conference.

-- Like A&M above, the Sun Devils are in the midst of a coaching change, as Todd Graham was jettisoned. The team will turn to former ESPN analyst and New York Jets head coach Herm Edwards to lead the turnaround in the desert. Arizona State was adequate enough on offense, but defense is where they'll need the most improvement.

-- Arizona State ranked 38th in total yards (428.3 per game) while finishing 50th in passing yards (247.7) and 49th in rushing yards (180.7). They also managed to stay afloat in the high-flying Pac-12 with 31.9 points per game (40th in the nation). On defense, the Sun Devils were a dismal 110th in the country with 447.2 yards per game allowed, and 118th against the pass (268.1). They weren't as bad against the run, giving up 179.2 yards per game (83rd), but they weren't good, either. Their 31.2 points per game allowed ranked 88th in the country.

-- QB Manny Wilkins led the way with 2,918 passing yards, 17 touchdowns and five interceptions while also amassing 269 yards on the ground with six scores. When he wasn't passing it, he was handing the ball off to RB Demario Richard, who needs just 23 yards to hit the 1,000-yard mark. He also found the end zone 12 times. RB Kalen Ballage, who once made headlines for his NCAA record-tying eight total touchdowns in a single game, rolled for 657 yards and six scores on the ground, and 19 receptions. Through the air, WR N'Keal Harry led Sparky with 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns, while WR Kyle Williams had 59 grabs for 678 yards and six scores.

-- For N.C. State, they piled up 449.2 yards per game to finish 29th in the nation, while also ranking 29th in passing yards per outing (271.5). They were a respectable 51st in rushing yards (177.8) while finishing 49th in points scored (30.6). On defense, it was hard to rush against the Wolfpack, as they boast legitimate NFL talent among their front seven. They allowed just 132.2 yards per game on the ground to finish 28th, while allowing 244.9 yards per game through the air to finish 96th. If you're going to beat N.C. State, it is done via the air. They allowed 24.8 yards per game which was good for 50th in the nation.

-- It all starts with QB Ryan Finley, as he was good for 63.9 pass completions, 3,196 yards, 16 touchdowns and six interceptions. It remains to be seen whether he'll be the next Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson, Mike Glennon, Jacoby Brissett or Erik Kramer, but the Wolfpack certainly have produced some NFL talent at the position. TE Jaylen Samuels found the end zone 11 times on the ground, while RB Nyheim Hines led the charge with 1,040 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. Reggie Gallaspy II also managed to find the end zone five times while totaling 436 rushing yards. In the pass game it is WR Kelvin Harmon who is most dangerous, posting 993 yards. He shared the touchdown lead with four, tying WR Jakobi Meyers and Samuels.

-- The Wolfpack have an impressive 6-2-1 ATS mark over their past nine bowl games, but they're just 1-3-1 ATS across the past five games overall this season and they failed to cover their past four games outside of the conference. The 'under' is 8-1 over the past nine games this season for N.C. State, but perhaps that changes in a bowl. The 'over' is 5-0 in their past five bowl games, 7-0 in their past seven neutral-site battles and 8-2-1 in their past 11 non-conference tilts.

-- AZ State has posted a 7-2 ATS mark over their past nine games, and they're 5-1 ATS in their past six against winning teams. However, they're just 2-6 ATS over the past eight bowl games, 1-4 ATS in their past five neutral-site battles and 0-4 ATS in the past four outside the conference. The 'over' has hit in five of the past six bowl games for the Sun Devils, while going 7-2 in their past nine neutral-site appearances.

-- N.C. State is 16-13-1 all-time in bowl games, and they're a respectable 7-3 over the past 10 postseason appearances. That includes last season's 41-17 thrashing of Vanderbilt at the Independence Bowl. They have never appeared in the Sun Bowl, and this is just their second-ever bowl game against a Pac-12 school. They lost to Arizona in the 1989 Copper Bowl, 17-10.

-- The Sun Devils would like to turn things around in bowl games. They're 14-14-1 overall, but just 4-8 over their past 12 appearances. They lost the Cactus Bowl to West Virginia last season, 43-42. They won their most recent appearance in the Sun Bowl against Duke in 2014, 36-31, and they are 3-0 in their past three appearances in El Paso dating back to 1997. Their only loss in five appearances in the Sun Bowl was to Western Reserve in 1941, and that followed a scoreless tie in the 1940 installment against Catholic University.

-- Kickoff is slated for 3:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

**Kentucky vs. Northwestern**

Music City Bowl History

-- The latest installment of the Music City Bowl at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn. features two more Power 5 Conference teams squaring off. Wildcat pride is on the line, too, as the Kentucky Wildcats (7-5 straight up, 3-9 against the spread) from the SEC battle the Northwestern Wildcats (9-3 straight up, 9-3 against the spread) from the Big Ten.

-- Kentucky limped into this game with three losses in the final four games, and they're a dismal 1-7 ATS over their final eight games. They were outclassed by Georgia, 42-13, back on Nov. 18, and by rival Louisville, 44-17, in the regular-season finale. Still, they're loooking for their eighth win of the season, which would be the most since 2007 when Rich Brooks led them to a 35-27 win over Florida State in the Music City Bowl.

-- UK had trouble putting it together on offense, posting 350.8 total yards per game to finish 105th in the country. They were 99th in passing yards per game (181.1), 57th in rushing yards (169.8) and 84th in total points scored per contest (25.8). On the defensive side of the ball they had their struggles, too. They were a rather marginal 90th in total yards allowed (425.7), while getting dinged for 263.5 yards per game through the air, finishing a dismal 113th in the country in pass defense. They were 62nd in rushing defense (162.2), and a rather poor 80th in scoring defense, yielding 28.6 points per contest.

-- QB Stephen Johnson completed 60.7 percent of his passes for 2,048 yards, 10 touchdowns and four interceptions while rushing for 358 yards and three scores. On the ground, RB Benny Snell Jr. held down the fort with 1,318 yards and 18 touchdowns while gathering 5.1 yards per tote. RB Sihiem King was a decent change of pace back with 4.6 yards per carry and a pair of scores. Senior WR Garrett Johnson was the playmaker on offense, posting a team-best 500 yards and two scores. He was able to post 111 yards and a touchdown in a 40-34 win against fellow SEC bowl team Missouri back on Oct. 7.

-- Northwestern posted 405.2 total yards per game to finish 58th in the land, and they had 244.2 yards per game through the air to rank 52nd in passing offense. They were just 70th in rushing yards per game (160.9) while checking in 52nd in points scored (29.7). The Wildcats were sound in the kick game, hitting at an 85.7 percent clip, 12th in the country. On defense, Northwestern was 37th in total yards allowed (358.8), but the totals were rather lopsided. They ranked 10th in the nation in rushing defense (111.2), but 100th in passing defense (247.6). In points allowed, Northwestern allowed just 19.8 PPG to check in 16th in the country.

-- QB Clayton Thorson completed 60.6 percent of his attempts for 2,809 yards, 15 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He isn't a threat to run the ball. That's the job of RB Justin Jackson, who piled up 1,154 yards with nine touchdowns on 4.5 yards per carry. Jeremy Larkin also did a good job with 391 yards and five scores, posting 5.2 yards per pop. WR Bennett Skowronek led the way with 619 receiving yards, 14.7 yards per catch and five scores. WR Flynn Nagel had the most grabs (46), while managing 474 yards and a pair of touchdowns. WR Macan Wilson is also a threat, finishing with 32 grabs, 446 yard and a score, while TE Garrett Dickerson needs attention in the red zone. He posted 38 receptions, 410 yards and four touchdowns.

-- Kentucky is a dismal 1-7 ATS over the past eight games overall, 0-4 ATS in their past four against teams with a winning record, 0-5 ATS in their past five non-conference games and 0-5 ATS in their past five neutral-site battles. They're also just 1-3-1 ATS across their past five bowl outings.

-- Northwestern has posted an impressive 16-5 ATS mark over their past 21 games overall, while going 4-1 ATS in the past five against teams with a winning record. They're also a respectable 5-2 ATS in their past seven bowl appearances.

-- The 'under' is 5-0 in Kentucky's past five non-conference games and 5-1 in their past six neutral-site games, although the 'over' has hit in four of their past five this season.

-- The 'under' is 4-1 in Northwestern's past five neutral-site games, while going 21-6-1 in their past 28 non-conference contests.

-- Kentucky has dropped three bowl appearances in a row since their 2009 win in the Liberty Bowl against East Carolina. They're 2-2 all-time in the Music City Bowl.

-- Northwestern's bowl history isn't terribly lengthy, and it isn't very good, either. They're 3-10 SU all-time, although one of those wins was last season in the Pinstripe Bowl over Pittsburgh, 31-24. In fact, after a 1-9 SU mark in their first 10 bowls, they have won two of the past three. This is their first-ever appearance in the Music City Bowl.

-- This is the first-ever meeting between these two institutions.

-- Kickoff is slated for 4:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.