From Rags to Riches
By Scott Spreitzer
People talk about parity all the time in pro football. "True" parity does not exist, because you have some good teams and some bad teams. Several coaches are proven winners. Several others are so new to the field that they have not established yet whether they can win or not. There are not 32 starting caliber quarterbacks to fill out the 32 teams. So, there are differences.
But, teams are more evenly packed in this sport than in college football, or even pro basketball, where you would figure there would be plenty of talent to go around. And, there is a clear driving force that keeps teams at the bottom motivated to work there way back toward the top.
I was thinking about that the other day when looking over the 2009 prospects for the worst teams in 2008. There are seasons where you can tell that a disaster is imminent. A bad coach has not been fired yet. Management is stubbornly sticking with a quarterback with proven limitations. Ownership refuses to loosen the purse strings in a way that would bring in a superstar talent. Handicappers should be aware that seemingly all of last years worst teams are in position to improve this season.
Let us take a look. Here is a list of all the teams who finished at 6-10 or worse in 2008. There is a total of nine. That tells you something interesting right there. Fully 23 of the league is 32 teams were within a game of .500 or better! Any team with a flat tire saw the rest of the league race by them.
GREEN BAY (6-10)
The Packers were disappointed with their record, but had very good stats for a 6-10 team. In fact, they had the stats of a playoff contender. Teams typically play to their stats rather than having their stats adjust to match their record. They also have a head coach and quarterback who learned from their mistakes in 2008. I would not be surprised to see this team compete for the NFC North title.
JACKSONVILLE (5-11)
A traditional power kind of hit a wall because of injuries, and what were reported to be attitude problems in the locker room with certain personnel. Those players are no longer with the team, so many expect the Jaguars to look like their usual selves this coming season. Based on prior form this decade, 5-11 was an aberration.
OAKLAND (5-11)
Oakland changed coaches a month into the season, and showed improvement under Tom Cable. They will either have a young quarterback who is maturing with experience, or will go with a veteran in Jeff Garcia who is better than a 5-11 quarterback. It might be a baby step forward rather than a big leap. But, you could see potential improvement here.
CINCINNATI (4-11-1)
The Bengals lost star quarterback Carson Palmer to injury last season. They are clearly better than 4-11-1 when he is healthy. This is also a team with some chemistry issues that may have been dealt with. Maybe it is going to take a coaching change to really turn things around completely. In terms of 2009 expectations, these guys will be better just by staying healthy.
CLEVELAND (4-12)
The last five teams on the list all went 4-12 or worse last year, and all changed head coaches. That right there is a good indicator for improvement. If the prior coach was in over his head, that is not an issue any more. If the prior coach simply lost his players, they are likely to go all out for the new guy because they want to keep their jobs. In the case of the Browns, they also had the worst quarterback play in the league last year. Mathematically, they have to improve in that area as well.
SEATTLE (4-12)
The Seahawks were a perennial playoff team that was ravaged by injuries last year, just as a veteran coach was in his lame duck season before retiring. There will be a new coach, more healthy bodies, and much more intensity this season.
ST. LOUIS (2-14)
The Rams were just going through the motions most of last season. Now the former defensive coordinator of the NY Giants is in charge of the team to make sure that does not happen. Injuries were also a big deal with this franchise last year. One of the biggest causes of bad seasons is injuries. One of the main reasons those teams bounce back the following year is that they are healthier, and the bad injury luck is hitting other franchises.
KANSAS CITY (2-14)
Another new head coach who came from a successful staff. Plus the Chiefs are very likely to have much better quarterback play.
DETROIT (0-16)
It is obviously impossible to get WORSE than 0-16! The Lions will be better this year by definition.
It is not really going out on a limb to say that teams who finished 2-14 or worse are going to get better or that traditional playoff teams who had an off year are going to bounce back. But, this is what handicapping is all about! It is not going out on a limb, it is realizing the common sense stuff that the public is missing. Las Vegas lines are based on public perceptions and you can make good money by exploiting what they are not thinking about!
*Teams like the Lions, Chiefs, and Rams will not get much respect in the line early in the season even though they have made clear improvements. They were 4-44 combined last year, and the public just will not bet on teams like that!
*Teams like the Seahawks, Jaguars, and Bengals will not be priced like playoff contenders even though they were all playoff contenders before injuries and chemistry issues set in.
*Teams like the Packers and Browns may be much more competitive than the final standings from last year would suggest.
We need to be thinking about issues like this now so we are ready to hit the ground running when the season starts in a few weeks. Vegas lines are often the softest right out of the gate. And, that is because the public is making bad early season bets based on old perceptions!