NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 16
By SHAWN HARTLEN
Indianapolis at Jacksonville (+6)
Why Colts cover: Have won three of last four meetings in Jacksonville. Road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between the two teams. Indy can clinch a playoff birth with win.
Why Jaguars cover: Would like to spoil Indy's playoff chances. Should shut down AFC's worst rush offense. Colts are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight contests against Jags. Underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the previous eight times this two clubs played.
Total (44): Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Jacksonville.
Baltimore at Dallas (-5)
Why Ravens cover: Have won both previous meetings. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Have NFL's second-best defense. Cowboys running back Marion Barber has been ineffective while battling toe injury.
Why Cowboys cover: Are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Defense has league-high 53 sacks and will pressure rookie QB Joe Flacco.
Total (39.5): Over is 4-0-1 in Ravens' last five road games.
Cincinnati at Cleveland (-3)
Why Bengals cover: Braylon Edwards is a distraction for the Browns after calling out the fans and the media. Cleveland has not scored an offensive TD in over four games. Browns are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games.
Why Browns cover: Have won two of last three meetings. Ryan Fitzpatrick (nine picks in 10 starts) will face a Cleveland secondary that has 22 interceptions on the season. Bengals are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. AFC North and 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
Total (32.5): Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings and 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Cleveland.
New Orleans at Detroit (+6.5)
Why Saints cover: Are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games. Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games. N.O. won't want to be the team that Detroit beats for its first win. The Lions have been outscored by an average of 20.1 points at home this season.
Why Lions cover: Have won last three meetings. Reggie Bush might not play because of a knee injury. Dan Orlovsky (96.8 rating) played well last week against Indianapolis after being injured the last four weeks. Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Total (50.5): Over is 14-4-1 in Saints' last 19 games and 7-2-1 in Lions' last 10 home games.
Miami at Kansas City (+4)
Why Dolphins cover: Have won six of last eight meetings. Have not allowed a TD in three straight games. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Chiefs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games.
Why Chiefs cover: Are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. AFC. Tyler Thigpen has thrown 13 TDs and only four interceptions in his last 10 games. Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
Total (41): Under is 7-1 in Dolphins' last eight games.
Arizona at New England (-9)
Why Cardinals cover: Are 9-4 ATS versus a team with a winning record. High-scoring offense could be a concern for a battered and aging New England defense. Patriots are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games.
Why Patriots cover: Have won last four matchups against Cards. Arizona has allowed 130 points while losing three of their last four games. The Cardinals struggle on the East Coast going 2-19 in their last 21 games there. Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.
Total (43.5): Over is 5-0 in Patriots' last five games.
San Francisco at St. Louis (+ 5.5)
Why 49ers cover: Have won two of last three meetings. Are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings and 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in St. Louis. Rams have lost eight straight games. Shaun Hill has a passer rating of over 96.5 in five of his last seven games.
Why Rams cover: Marc Bulger has thrown for 1204 yards and five TDs in his last five games against San Francisco. Niners could be without running back Frank Gore for the second straight week. Underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
Total (43.5): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Pittsburgh at Tennessee (+1)
Why Steelers cover: Are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. Titans will be without stud defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth who has a knee injury. Tennessee has lost two of its last four games after starting 10-0.
Why Titans cover: Have won three of last four meetings and six of last seven at home against Pittsburgh. Have AFC's best rushing attack. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Total (35): Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
San Diego at Tampa Bay (-3.5)
Why Chargers cover: Have won seven of eight all-time meetings. Are 19-7-3 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog. Once formidable Bucs' defense has allowed 474 yards rushing in the last two weeks with both games ending in losses.
Why Buccaneers cover: Have yet to lose at home this season. Get QB Jeff Garcia back from injury. Chargers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games and 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
Total (42): Under is 4-0 in Buccaneers' last four home games and 4-1-1 in Chargers' last six games overall.
Buffalo at Denver (-7)
Why Bills cover: Get QB Trent Edwards back from injury. Marshawn Lynch had 90 yards rushing (4.7 average) and a TD in his only game against Denver. Broncos are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games and have yet to cover at home this season (0-6-1).
Why Broncos cover: Have won last five meetings. Can clinch AFC West with victory. Jay Cutler blew up Buffalo for 304 yards and a score in his last game against the Bills. Buffalo is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games.
Total (44): Under is 5-0 in Broncos' last five home games and 4-1 in their last five games overall.
Houston at Oakland (+7)
Why Texans cover: Have won all three previous meetings. Coming off big win last week against the then 11-1 Tennessee Titans. Matt Schaub has thrown for 698 yards and three TDs in two games since returning from injury. Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
Why Raiders cover: AFC's fifth-ranked rush offense could punish Houston's 24th-ranked rush defense. Pro Bowl corner Nnamdi Asomugha could limit receiver Andre Johnson.
Total (44): Under is 5-1-1 in Raiders' last seven games and 4-0 in Texans' last 4 games.
N.Y. Jets at Seattle (+5)
Why Jets cover: Have won eight of last nine meetings. Brett Favre is 4-2 against Mike Holmgren since Holmgren coached him in Green Bay. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Fighting for the AFC East title. Are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.
Why Seahawks cover: QB Seneca Wallace hasn't thrown an interception in five straight starts while filling in for Matt Hasselbeck. New York is winless on the West Coast this season. Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.
Total (44.5): Under is 4-0 in Jets' last four games as a road favorite and 5-1-1 in Seahawks' last seven games overall.
Philadelphia at Washington (+5)
Why Eagles cover: Have won three straight games while Redskins are on a three game losing streak. Donovan McNabb has thrown for 741 yards and seven touchdowns in three games since his Week 12 benching. Are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 trips to Washington. Road team is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
Why Redskins cover: Have won two of last three meetings. Clinton Portis has 488 yards rushing and four TDs in his last five games against Philly. Eagles are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
Total (38.5): Under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings and 4-1-2 in the last seven meetings in Washington.
Atlanta at Minnesota (-3.5)
Why Falcons cover: Have won three of their last four games. Minnesota is vulnerable through the air, sporting the NFL's 22nd-ranked pass defense. Michael Turner could find room to run with defensive tackle Pat Williams out due to injury. Vikings are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC.
Why Vikings cover: Have won two of last three meetings. Tarvaris Jackson has thrown five TDs and zero interceptions in two games since Gus Frerotte was injured. Are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Can clinch a playoff spot with win. Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Total (44): Over is 11-5 in Falcons' last 16 vs. NFC and 6-2 in Vikings' last eight games overall.
Carolina at N.Y. Giants (-3)
Why Panthers cover: Have won three of four meetings all-time. Are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games. Giants are reeling, losing two straight contests since running back Brandon Jacobs suffered a knee injury.
Why Giants cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Are 14-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Holding opponents to only 13.9 points at home. Eli Manning threw for three TDs and no interceptions in their last meeting.
Total (39): Over is 5-0 in Panthers' last five vs. NFC and 4-1 in their last five games overall.
Green Bay at Chicago (-4)
Why Packers cover: Are 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings in Chicago. Are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. NFC North. Ryan Grant has rushed for 248 yards (6.4 yards per carry) and two TDs in his last two games against the Bears. Pounded the Bears 37-3 in Week 11.
Why Bears cover: Have won two of last three meetings. Kyle Orton is 14-2 as a starter at home. Green Bay's banged-up defense has allowed an average of 26.3 points over its last three games, all losses. Will get running back Matt Forte back from injury. Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
Total (42): Over is 9-2-1 in Packers last 12 road games and 20-7 in Bears' last 27 home games.
New Orleans Bowl Preview
by Tom Freese
Troy is 8-4 straight up and a money making 7-4 ATS this year. The Trojans outgained eleven of their twelve opponents on the playing field. Troy scored 33 points a game while allowing just 21 points a game and they have outscored their last three opponents by a combined margin of 100 to 19. Good ATS trends for the Trojans are that they are 5-0 ATS when favored by 3.5 to 10 points, 20-8 ATS their last 28 games and they are 7-3 ATS after allowing less than 20 points in their last game. The Trojans have no bad ATS trends.
Southern Mississippi went 6-6 straight up and 7-5 ATS this year. The Golden Eagles have outscored their last three opponents by a combined margin of 119 to 29. Just a little side bar here, I don't think that any team that doesn't have a winning record should be in a Bowl Game! Good ATS trends for Southern Miss are that they are 4-0 ATS their last four games and they are 5-0 ATS after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their last game. Bad ATS Trends for Southern Miss are that they are 3-9 ATS their last 12 games as underdogs.