Games of the Year, Part I
By Brian Edwards
As is its custom this time of year, The Golden Nugget in Las Vegas has released early numbers for college football’s Games of the Year stretching from Week 1 until the final weekend of the regular season.
On that note, let’s start with Week 1 that has games from Thursday through Monday. South Carolina will play host to Conference USA power Southern Miss at Williams Brice Stadium on Thursday night. The Nugget has opened the Gamecocks as 14-point favorites.
This is a pivotal year for Steve Spurrier, who probably has his best shot at winning the SEC East with Florida, Georgia and Tennessee breaking in new starting quarterbacks. Fourth-year junior QB Stephen Garcia will be the key. He needs to stay healthy for 12 games and perform at an All-SEC level.
But Garcia needs help. Most importantly, the Gamecocks need to get decent offensive line play for the first time in several years. Spurrier’s offense needs to have an effective running game in order for his play-action plays to function at a high level. To the rescue, perhaps, could be Palmetto State product Marcus Lattimore, a five-star RB who could start right away as a true freshman.
Also on Thursday, Utah will play host to Pitt as a 3 ½-point favorite. The Utes, who are coming off a 10-3 campaign, return eight starters on offense but just four on the defensive side of the ball. The Panthers, who also finished 10-3 in 2009, bring back five starters on offense and six on defense.
Remember, in Urban Meyer’s last game as coach at Utah, the Utes beat Pitt down by a 35-7 count in the 2004 Fiesta Bowl. That’s the only previous head-to-head meeting between these programs.
On Saturday of Week 1, North Carolina and LSU will take over the Georgia Dome. The past two years, Alabama has beaten Clemson and Va. Tech in Atlanta in SEC-ACC clashes. The Crimson Tide destroyed the Tigers 34-10 as a 4 ½-point underdog in 2008, and also took the cash in a 34-24 win over the Hokies as a 6 ½-point ‘chalk.’
The Nugget has made the Tar Heels the three-point favorites. They might have the most impressive numbers in terms of returning starters, bringing back 10 on offense and nine on ‘D.’ Nevertheless, I still feel like LSU has better overall talent, and I wouldn’t be surprised if when September rolls around, we’re looking at a pick ‘em or perhaps the Tigers as the short favorites.
With that said, I give UNC a huge head coaching advantage with Butch Davis matching wits with Les ‘The Mad Hatter’ Miles. Speaking of ‘The Hat,’ it should be interesting to watch what goes down from Ann Arbor to Baton Rouge this season.
We know Rich Rodriguez is on a boiling hot seat and, to a lesser extent, Miles is on somewhat shaky terms, especially when thinking about his debacle of a coaching performance in last year’s inexplicable loss at Ole Miss. (To be clear, that’s not a shot at the Rebels. The loss was inexplicable only in terms of the kindergarten-like clock-management decisions made by Miles.)
The question is this: Are the Wolverines still as bullish on Miles, an alumnus who played and coached under the ultimate Michigan Man, as they were in 2007? The answer is probably no, but I still don’t know that that’ll prevent Michigan from pursuing Miles, especially after all the turmoil under R-Rod, a ‘stranger’ to the Michigan way.
Another interesting Week 1 matchup will be at Papa John’s Stadium, where Charlie Strong and Joker Phillips will make their head-coaching debuts (I discount Strong’s one-game stretch as Ron Zook’s interim replacement at Florida). The Golden Nugget has Kentucky as a seven-point road favorite at Louisville.
As if Oregon St. doesn’t have enough competition on its Pac-10 slate, the Beavers aren’t afraid to take on the nation’s premier ‘mid-majors.’ In fact, Mike Riley and Co. will go on the road to face TCU and Boise St. this season. In Week 1, the Horned Frogs have been tabbed as 10 ½-point favorites vs. Oregon St. at Cowboys Stadium.
Finally, on Monday at FedEx Field in Washington D.C., Virginia Tech and Boise St. will square off in what is a must-win for the Broncos, who return every key player from last year’s 14-0 squad with the exception of second-team All-American cornerback Kyle Wilson. The Nugget opened Chris Petersen’s squad as a 2 ½-point favorite.
The oddsmakers are obviously showing Boise St. a bunch of respect here, especially when considering the cross-country trip. Frank Beamer’s team has eight starters coming back on offense, including veteran QB Tyrod Taylor and two of the country’s best RBs in Ryan Williams and Darren Evans.
Before Evans tore his ACL last August, he ran for 1,265 yards and earned second-team All-ACC honors in 2008. All Williams did last season was rush for 1,655 yards while averaging 5.6 yards per carry.
Week 2 begins on Thursday in Starkville, where Mississippi St. will host Auburn in the SEC opener for both schools. The Tigers are seven-point road favorites. If this line remains the same, maybe gamblers should look at the Bulldogs as home underdogs? I say that because I love to fade a team that has a quarterback making his first career road start. That’ll be the case for Cam Newton, Auburn’s juco transfer QB who started his career at Florida before getting booted from the program.
Week 2 features a slew of intriguing non-conference games like FSU at Oklahoma (-10), Miami at Ohio St. (-8), South Florida at Florida (-18), Penn St. at Alabama (-9.5), Oregon (-3) at Tennessee, Michigan at Notre Dame (-7) and Ga. Tech (-7) at Kansas.
The Bulls and the Gators will be colliding for the first time, while PSU and ‘Bama haven’t met in 20 years. The Seminoles haven’t faced the Sooners since OU beat FSU 13-2 for the national title in the 2000 Orange Bowl. Likewise, the ‘Canes haven’t played the Buckeyes since Ohio St. beat UM in double overtime for the 2002 BCS championship.
As usual, Florida and Tennessee will steal the spotlight in Week 3. The Gators are nine-point favorites for their trip to Neyland Stadium (AKA: Swamp North). UF has beaten UT five straight times and 18 of the last 24.
Other Week 3 games include Ga. Tech at UNC (-4.5), BYU at FSU (-7), Nebraska (-4.5) at Washington and Texas (-7) at Texas Tech.
For the Thursday night game of Week 4, Pitt will play host to former Big East rival Miami as a one-point home favorite at Heinz Field. Both schools will have an open date the prior week.
Arkansas is getting a bunch of respect from The Nugget with its numbers. For example, the Crimson Tide is only favored by 3 ½ for its trip to Fayetteville on Sep. 25. Staying with the Razorbacks, they have 10 starters returning on offense and seven on defense.
Ryan Mallett, who threw for 3,624 yards with a 30/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2009, is a darkhorse Heisman Trophy candidate. The transfer from Michigan has all of his skill players back, so Bobby Petrino’s offense should be a high-functioning machine. However, the defense has to rapidly improve if the Hogs are going to be any sort of factor in the SEC West.
South Carolina will play a crucial road game in Week 4 when it invades the Loveliest Village on the Plains. Auburn has been tabbed as a 3 ½-point home favorite vs. the Gamecocks. These schools haven’t met since a memorable Thursday game in 2006 when second-ranked Auburn escaped Columbia with a 24-17 victory as a 13 ½-point favorite.
Boise St. hasn’t tasted defeat on the smurf turf in the regular season since 2001. The Broncos have never lost at home on Chris Petersen’s watch. They are 14-point favorites for their Week 4 showdown vs. Oregon St., which lost 42-14 in its last venture to Bronco Stadium in 2006.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
More Week 4 numbers: West Va. at LSU (-6), California at Arizona (-4), Va. Tech (-2.5) at Boston College and Oklahoma (-10) at Cincinnati.
I was a guest on The Paul Finebaum Show discussing these Games of the Year on Friday. You can listen to the clip from Hour 1 on 6/18/10 by going to this page. Congrats to Paul, whose show is now on XM channel 143 from 2:00-6:00 Central.
No Clemson lines were released due to the uncertain status of QB Kyle Parker, who was recently taken in the MLB Draft and is believed to be considering all his options at this point.
Like Clemson, there are no lines for USC games. The reasoning for this is potential transfers. Remember, the NCAA ruled that all juniors and seniors can leave the Trojans for another school without being forced to sit out a season.
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Games of the Year, Part II
By Brian Edwards
Picking up where we left off in our prior discussion, we move to Week 5 of the college football regular season. The Red River Rivalry will take center stage on this first weekend of October, with the Golden Nugget making Oklahoma vs. Texas a pick ‘em game.
The Longhorns lost four-year starting QB Colt McCoy, but we saw Garrett Gilbert grow up before our eyes in last year’s BCS Championship Game vs. Alabama. Gilbert was unexpectedly thrown in the fire early in the first quarter and predictably, he looked like a deer in headlights against the nation’s fiercest defense.
By the time he was intercepted on a shovel pass that Marcell Dareus returned for a touchdown on the last play of the first half to give ‘Bama a 24-6 lead at halftime, the game seemed over. Find me the person that gave Texas a chance to rally and win outright against the Crimson Tide with Gilbert at the wheel with an 18-point deficit, and I’ll point that same person to a great beachfront property I’ve been sitting on in Kansas.
In other words, Mack Brown’s team had no shot in the second half. In fact, oddsmakers made ‘Bama a nine-point favorite in the second half when it was already up by 18. That equated to the Tide laying 27 points for the game.
Nevertheless, Gilbert found Jordan Shipley for a 44-yard scoring strike to cut the deficit to 24-13 late in the third quarter. With 6:15 remaining, Gilbert connected with Shipley again for a 28-yard touchdown pass. Next, he zipped a pass to Dan Buckner for the two-point conversion and all of a sudden, ‘Bama’s seemingly insurmountable lead had been trimmed to 24-21 with an eternity left in the final stanza. All of a sudden, a true freshman QB was on the cusp of leading the most improbable comeback in BCS Championship Game history.
Alas, it was not to be. The rally fell short. However, Brown found himself his QB of the future and you know the experience will make Gilbert a lot better player in 2010 when he becomes the starter.
Oklahoma’s Landry Jones was also put in the lineup prematurely in 2009. As a redshirt freshman, he suddenly became the starter when Sam Bradford went down in a Week 1 loss to BYU. Jones acquitted himself fairly well, throwing for 3,198 yards with a 26/14 touchdown-interception ratio.
Nick Saban’s team will play host to Florida at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Oct. 2. The Nugget opened the Tide as a three-point home favorite against the Gators, who haven’t been to Tuscaloosa since getting run out of the building by a 31-3 count in 2005. Unfortunately, most refer to that contest as “The Prothro Game” because ‘Bama’s dynamic wide receiver and punt returner sustained a grotesque career-ending injury.
UF will be looking to avenge a 32-13 loss to Alabama in the 2009 SEC Championship Game at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. Urban Meyer’s team returns six starters on offense and five on defense. The head coach will turn to John Brantley as his new signal caller during the sixth season of his tenure in Gainesville. Brantley, a third-generation Gator who has patiently waited his turn, finds himself in a similar position as Tee Martin did at Tennessee 11 years ago.
Remember, Martin took over for Peyton Manning and promptly led the Vols to an unbeaten season and national title. Brantley, a fourth-year junior, could’ve been a starter at just about every other school in America last season. He’ll be surrounded by speed galore, including RB Jeff Demps, utility man Chris Rainey and WR Deonte Thompson.
Alabama has eight starters back on offense but just two on defense. Nevertheless, bettors shouldn’t look at Saban’s defense as a ‘rebuilding’ unit. Dareus is one of the country’s premier defensive linemen and LB Dont’a Hightower is set to return from a knee injury suffered in a 35-7 home win over Arkansas last season.
Other Week 5 matchups include Penn St. at Iowa (-3), Tennessee at LSU (-9), Stanford at Oregon (-6), Ohio St. (-17) at Illinois and FSU (-10) at Virginia.
In Week 6, The Nugget has tabbed Florida as a nine-point home favorite vs. LSU. Georgia is a seven-point home ‘chalk’ vs. Tennessee. On that note, let’s touch on the Vols and Dawgs.
This is a huge season for Mark Richt who, to his credit, has embraced and joked about his ‘hot-seat status’ in recent months. In other words, he’s taken the exact opposite approach taken by Phil Fulmer and Tommy Tuberville when they were abruptly run out of town in Knoxville and Auburn, respectively, in 2008.
Nobody will dispute that Richt’s tenure at UGA has been a roaring success, especially when comparing it to the time spent in Athens by Ray Goff and Jim Donnan (have you noticed how neither coach has been given another job since?). But the Dawgs took a step back last season and didn’t live up to preseason No. 1 expectations in 2008.
Georgia AD Damon Evans expressed ‘concerns’ about the football program midway through the 2009 campaign, and let’s not forget that Richt was Vince Dooley’s hire, not Evans’s. This space thinks Richt needs to be in the SEC East hunt and cannot get blown out by Florida in order to keep his job.
To be in the SEC East mix, redshirt freshman QB Aaron Murray is going to have to be ‘as advertised.’ Murray, a product of Tampa Plant High School who was one of the most sought-after recruits in the class of 2009, will have one of the nation’s top WRs to look for in A.J. Green. He’ll also have an outstanding tight end in Orson Charles.
Most importantly, the Dawgs will have one of the nation’s best offensive lines. As usual, UGA will also have a slew of capable RBs, including sophomore Washaun Ealey, who averaged 5.7 yards per carry last season as a true freshman.
Tennessee only has nine starters returning (3 offense, 6 defense), is starting over with a new head coach again, needs to find a quarterback and a go-to RB and lost its four leading tacklers. Therefore, the fans in Knoxville, not known for their patience, had better find some because it could be a long year for Derek Dooley and Co.
The FSU-Miami rivalry certainly doesn’t have the luster or the national-championship implications that it once did, but it could play a major role in who wins the ACC in 2010. The Golden Nugget has the ‘Canes installed as four-point home favorites against the Seminoles.
Jimbo Fisher’s first team has nine starters coming back on offense and six on defense. The key is the health of QB Christian Ponder, who sustained a season-ending shoulder injury in a 40-24 loss at Clemson in 2009. Before Ponder went down, he was completing 68.8 percent of his passes with a 14/7 touchdown-interception ratio.
Junior QB Jacory Harris enjoyed some outstanding early-season moments, leading UM to a thrilling 38-34 come-from behind win over the ‘Noles in Tallahassee. He also helped the ‘Canes drill Ga. Tech and upset Oklahoma en route to a 5-1 start. However, things went south in ACC play and Harris finished the season with 17 interceptions. His consistency must improve for Randy Shannon’s squad to be factor in the ACC race.
Other Week 6 showdowns include Michigan St. at Michigan (-3), UCLA at California (-6), Pitt at Notre Dame (-3), Arkansas (-7) vs. Texas A&M and Alabama (-7.5) at South Carolina.
The Tide could be in a dangerous letdown situation when it faces the Gamecocks, who have an open date the previous week. On the other hand, ‘Bama will be coming off a physical home game vs. Florida. Steve Spurrier’s squad gave Saban’s bunch fits last year, taking the money in a 20-6 loss at Bryant-Denny that was much closer than the final score indicated. South Carolina comfortably covered as an 18 ½-point road underdog.
In Week 7, Arkansas is a three-point road favorite at Auburn. This number caught me by surprise and I would expect the Tigers to be short ‘chalk’ when this game rolls around. The Razorbacks seem to be getting a lot of respect from the oddsmakers in this spot and others. Perhaps they are deserving of such reverence, but this space senses that the Hogs are getting the preseason ink that was lauded upon Ole Miss last year.
Now to be clear, as a Rebel friend of mine (Will Haraway) pointed out last week, Houston Nutt’s team did win nine games last season. But they didn’t meet the lofty expectations that many preseason publications had imposed on them. Bobby Petrino’s team isn’t getting top-10 mentions, but I still need to see it before becoming a believer in the Hogs in 2010.
Nebraska will be looking for revenge when it hosts Texas as a 2 ½-point home favorite. With the Cornhuskers’ looming exit to the Big Ten, this game will take on added significance. Bo Pelini’s team got hosed in the Big 12 Championship Game last season, but it responded by trouncing Arizona 33-0 in the Holiday Bowl.
Nebraska brings back nine starters on offense and six on ‘D.’ After going 10-4 in 2009, expectations are extremely high in Lincoln. All of the ‘Huskers’ skill players are returning, including RB Roy Helu, who rushed for nearly 1,200 yards and scored 10 touchdowns.
Other Week 7 games include Boston College at FSU (-6), Iowa (-3) at Michigan, Missouri at Texas A&M (-4) and Ohio St. (-3) at Wisconsin.
North Carolina will be looking for its fourth consecutive win over Miami when it comes to South Florida in Week 8. The Golden Nugget has tabbed the ‘Canes as two-point home favorites. UNC, which finished 8-5 after dropping a 19-17 decision against Pitt in the Meineke Car Care Bowl, returns 10 starters on offense and nine on defense.
Also in Week 8, Auburn is a one-point home favorite vs. LSU, while Arkansas is favored by 13 against Ole Miss. Alabama is an eight-point road ‘chalk’ for its trip to Neyland Stadium to face the Vols.
In the Big Ten, Iowa is a three-point favorite vs. Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes are going to be strong once again after an 11-2 campaign that was capped with a 24-14 win over Ga. Tech in the Orange Bowl. QB Ricky Stanzi needs to improve on his mediocre 17/15 TD-INT ratio, and he has no excuse not to do so with all of his skill players back in the mix.
Moving to Week 9, the action starts on Thursday when FSU plays at North Carolina St. Raleigh has been a house of horrors for the ‘Noles, especially on Thursday nights. They did escape with a 26-17 comeback victory two years ago, but still failed to cover as 10-point road favorites. On a Thursday in ’06, the Wolfpack beat FSU 24-20 as a 9 ½-point home underdog.
ESPN’s Friday game could be a crucial Big East showdown. West Va. has been made a one-point road favorite at UConn. The Mountaineers, who went 9-4 last year, have seven starters back on offense and nine on defense. The only big question mark is the QB position, where Geno Smith will take over for the departed Jarrett Brown. Smith will be blessed with a pair of big-time weapons in RB Noel Devine and WR Jock Sanders.
The Huskies could be a team to watch. They thumped South Carolina at the PapaJohns.com Bowl in Birmingham to finish ’09 with an 8-5 ledger. Randy Edsall’s team brings back eight starters on each side of the ball.
We mentioned the importance of Georgia’s trip to Jacksonville earlier and it will come in Week 9. The Nugget has installed the Gators as six-point favorites. The Dawgs have lost 17 of their 20 head-to-head meetings against their bitter border rivals to the south.
Other Week 9 matchups are Texas Tech at Texas A&M (pick ‘em), Auburn at Ole Miss (pick ‘em), Michigan St. at Iowa (-7.5), Stanford at Washington (-3), Tennessee at South Carolina (-4) and Oklahoma St. (-1) at Kansas St.
vegasinsider.com.
Games of the Year, Part III
By Brian Edwards
In Part III of our Games of the Year discussion, we move to the first weekend of November. This is Week 10, starting with a crucial ACC contest between Virginia Tech and Ga. Tech. The Golden Nugget opened the Hokies as four-point home favorites for this Thursday night affair.
The Yellow Jackets have won three of their last four head-to-head meetings against Va. Tech both straight up and against the spread. They won by a 28-23 count in last season’s encounter as 3 ½-point home underdogs.
Paul Johnson’s team lost its leading rusher (Jonathan Dwyer), leading receiver (Demaryius Thomas) and best pass rusher (Derrick Morgan), but it otherwise returns most of its nucleus. The Jackets have six starters on offense and eight on defense coming back. Senior quarterback Josh Nesbitt, who had a 10/5 touchdown-interception ratio and rushed for more than 1,000 net yards and 18 TDs, is back to lead Johnson’s flexbone offense.
The SEC West might be decided on Nov. 6 in Baton Rouge. That’s where Alabama is currently listed as a four-point road favorite at LSU. The Tigers gave ‘Bama fits last year before the Crimson Tide pulled out a fortunate cover in a 24-15 victory as a 7 ½-point home ‘chalk.’
Junior QB Jordan Jefferson is going to be the key for Les Miles, who is going into an extremely important season in Baton Rouge. The Michigan job might be open yet again and unlike when Miles had the Bayou Bengals en route to a national title last time around, his exit from LSU might be a mutual thought process if this year doesn’t produce a 10-win campaign.
Only four starters are back on defense, but CB Patrick Peterson is one of the best cover corners in the country. The offense lost bruising RB Charles Scott and go-to WR Brandon LaFell, but Jefferson has two of the most athletic weapons in the SEC in sophomores Russell Sheppard and Rueben Randle.
If Arkansas and South Carolina are in the mix in their respective division races come Nov. 6, then their showdown at Williams-Brice Stadium will be of major importance. The Nugget has made the Razorbacks 2 ½-point road favorites.
We touched on Bobby Petrino’s squad perhaps being a tad overrated in Part II, so let’s talk more about the Gamecocks now. As mentioned in Part I, they need an instant contribution from true freshman RB Marcus Lattimore, who many recruitniks called the premier prep back in the nation from the 2010 class.
The defense figures to be excellent again. Seven starters are back on this side of the ball, including All-American candidates Chris Culliver and Stephon Gilmore, who help give this team what’s most likely the SEC’s best secondary.
Other Week 10 games include TCU (-7) at Utah, Oklahoma (-7 ½) at Texas A&M and North Carolina (-1) at FSU. The Horned Frogs, who went 12-1 last season but saw their unbeaten ledger ruined by Boise St. at the Fiesta Bowl, are a darkhorse national-title contender. They bring back nine starters on offense and seven on defense.
Gary Patterson’s team has all of its skill players returning with the exception of RB Joseph Turner, but Matthew Tucker and Ed Wesley both averaged more than six yards per carry and combined for 12 rushing touchdowns in 2009. I’m personally not very high on QB Andy Dalton, but the senior signal caller had solid numbers last year with a 23/8 touchdown-interception ratio.
The UNC-FSU game could be huge, but I certainly agree with The Nugget making the Tar Heels the short road ‘chalk.’ I have serious doubts about the ‘Noles in Jimbo Fisher’s first year, but the ACC’s Atlantic Division looks extremely weak. Therefore, FSU should be in contention when Butch Davis’s squad comes to Doak Campbell Stadium. The ‘Noles will have a couple of extra days of rest since they play at N.C. St. on a Thursday the previous week.
Texas A&M is returning seven starters on offense and nine on defense. Most importantly, senior quarterback Jerrod Johnson is back. Johnson produced brilliant numbers in ’09, throwing for 3,579 yards with a 30/8 TD-INT ratio. In addition, he scrambled for 759 rushing yards and eight more scores.
The Aggies, who are just 10-15 in Mike Sherman’s first two seasons, have got to get better on the defensive side of the ball. They gave up 47 to Arkansas, 36 to Oklahoma St., 62 to Kansas St., 65 to Oklahoma and 49 to Texas. Obviously, that just isn’t going to get it done.
Moving to Week 11, we have UConn hosting Pitt as a four-point home favorite in the Thursday night game. The Panthers will be breaking in a new QB (sophomore Tino Sunseri), but they have a wild-card Heisman candidate in sophomore RB Dion Lewis. As a true frosh, Lewis rushed for 1,799 yards and 17 TDs, averaging 5.5 YPC. Sunseri also has a go-to wideout in junior Jon Baldwin, who had 1,111 receiving yards and eight TD grabs in ’09.
Utah went into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan in the season opener in 2008. The Utes will try to pull a similar trick at Notre Dame in Week 11. The Golden Nugget opened the Fighting Irish as a 4 ½-point home favorite.
Kyle Whittingham’s squad is coming off a 10-3 campaign and is bringing back 12 total starters (8 offense, 4 defense). When Utah comes to South Bend, it might be in a letdown situation if it beats TCU at home the previous week.
Notre Dame begins a new era under the leadership of Brian Kelly, who takes over a roster with plenty of talent. And that’s the dumbfounding thing about Charlie Weis’s disastrous tenure – he recruited extremely well and played a soft schedule, yet netted horrible results the last three years.
The Irish, who finished 6-6 last season but didn’t go bowling, have five starters back on offense and nine on defense. Dayne Crist is the heir apparent under center, replacing three-year starter Jimmmy Clausen. Kelly has demonstrated an amazing ability of coaching up QBs, as evidenced by the production of the likes of Ben Mauk, Dustin Grutza, Tony Pike and Zach Collaros during his three-year tenure at Cincinnati.
Other Week 11 games include Ole Miss at Tennessee (-5), Georgia at Auburn (-3), Oregon (-2) at California, Miami at Ga. Tech (-3), Penn St. at Ohio St. (-7) and South Carolina at Florida (-15).
The Nittany Lions will be looking to avenge an embarrassing 24-7 home loss to The Vest’s squad as five-point home favorites. They have eight starters returning on offense and five on defense, but must break in a new QB following the exit of Daryll Clark. That job will fall to sophomore Kevin Newsome, who only saw garbage time under center last season.
The Head Ball Coach will be making his third trip back to The Swamp, a name he gave to one of college football’s premier venues during his glorious (7-for-12 in winning SEC’s) tenure from 1990-2001. In 2006, South Carolina completely outplayed UF, the eventual national champ, but lost a 17-16 decision because the Gators blocked a PAT and a field goal late in the fourth quarter. In ’08, Florida destroyed the ‘Cocks by a 56-6 count in the worst loss of Spurrier’s coaching career.
In Week 12, the marquee matchups are Fresno St. at Boise St. (-20), Va. Tech at Miami (-2), Pitt (-3) at South Florida, Ohio St. (-4) at Iowa and Nebraska (-4 ½) at Texas A&M. I don’t fade the Broncos on the smurf turf, but we should note that Chris Petersen’s team could be looking ahead to a trip to Nevada the next week.
Ohio St.’s trip to Iowa City is an extremely difficult spot for the Bucks, who play PSU the prior week and face arch-rival Michigan the following week. Meanwhile, Iowa is coming back home after back-to-back road contests against Indiana and Northwestern. The Big Ten title, a Rose Bowl invite or a trip to the BCS Championship Game could be on the line for the Hawks and Bucks.
The Hurricanes will be in a huge revenge spot when they host the Hokies, who absolutely destroyed UM by a 31-7 in a driving rainstorm when they collided at Lane Stadium in Blacksburg last season. Frank Beamer’s team has emerged victorious from five of the last seven head-to-head meetings against Miami.
Week 13 features a primetime tilt on Thanksgiving when Texas hosts Texas A&M. The Golden Nugget has tabbed the Longhorns as 14-point home favorites. The Aggies took the cash in a 49-39 loss last year as 21-point home underdogs. They have been known to pull upsets in this rivalry game, including wins in ’07 as 13 ½-point ‘dogs and ’08 as seven-point puppies.
On Friday, we have a tripleheader that could have conference-title implications for each game. The Nugget has Boise St. as a 13-point ‘chalk’ at Nevada, while Alabama is favored by 11 in the Iron Bowl that’ll be played in Tuscaloosa. Finally, the Backyard Brawl between West Va. and Pitt in the Steel City is listed as a pick ‘em.
The highlights of Saturday’s contests include Florida (-7) at FSU, Ga. Tech at Georgia (-4), Michigan at Ohio St. (-13 ½), LSU at Arkansas (-6) and Oklahoma (-13) at Oklahoma St. The Seminoles haven’t tasted a victory against UF since the Swamp Swindle, a controversial 38-34 victory in 2003.
During Urban Meyer’s tenure, Florida is 14-1 against its ‘Big Three’ rivals that include FSU, Georgia and Tennessee. The Gators have beaten the ‘Noles six consecutive times with four of those victories coming by 27 points or more. Hello!
Ga. Tech won in come-from-behind fashion in its last trip to Athens. If Georgia doesn’t have at least eight wins going into this rivalry game, Mark Richt’s job could very much be on the line against the Yellow Jackets.
As for Michigan’s Rich Rodriguez, I think he will have already tasted his pink slip by the time the Wolverines get to The ‘Shoe.
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