Games to Watch - Week 4
By Chris David
Week 4
Miami, Fl. at Virginia Tech
Skinny
All eyes will be on the ACC this Saturday when No. 9 Miami, Fl. (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) visits No. 11 Virginia Tech (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) in a huge conference battle. After holding off Florida State (38-34) on Labor Day and then defeating Georgia Tech (33-17) last Thursday, the Hurricanes have been put back on the map. A large part of Miami's success is attributed to sophomore QB Jacory Harris (656 yards, 5 TDs), who's spread the ball to 12 different players this year. Even though Miami's defense held the Yellow Jackets to 228 yards, it's tough to gauge how good this unit is just yet. Virginia Tech might not be a good barometer either, considering its offense barely beat Nebraska 16-15 last week in Blacksburg. QB Tyrod Taylor (44.4%, 192 yards) looked horrible except for two plays, one being an 81-yard mistake by the Cornhuskers' defense and the other the game-winning TD to win the game. The Hokies' defense only gave up 15 points but the run defense (200 YPG) has been hit harder than expected this year. In Week 1, Alabama pounded V-Tech for 498 yards, including 268 on the ground. It seems as if Miami's offense is geared toward Harris and his arm, but Randy Shannon might want to establish the run if he wants to escape with a road victory.
Gambling Notes
A handful of offshore outfits opened this game as a pick 'em but Miami was quickly steamed up to a three-point road favorite by the sharps. The Hurricanes are definitely the public darlings right now and the victory over FSU is getting more credibility now after the Seminoles thrashed BYU on the road last weekend. Miami won last year's battle 16-14 between the two teams, but Virginia Tech had won four of the previous five. The Hokies have also gone 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, plus total players should note the 'under' is on a 5-1 run in this series. Frank Beamer and V-Tech don't lose often in Blacksburg, especially not as underdogs either. In the last three instances, the Hokies are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS, and two of the covers came against the 'Canes. Randy Shannon is 2-2 both SU and ATS as a road favorite in his two years at Miami. The look-ahead angle could be in play for Miami, since Oklahoma will be invading South Beach next Saturday. Was the Hurricanes' win over G-Tech that impressive? Was Miami lucky to beat FSU on the road? Is V-Tech overrated this year? Those questions will be answered for gamblers soon enough.
California at Oregon (ABC-Regional, 3:30 p.m.)
Skinny
Is this the year for head coach Jeff Tedford and California (3-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) to shine on the national stage? The Golden Bears have looked great so far but the next two weeks will be very telling for the school. Running back Jahvid Best (412 yards, 9 TDs) appears to be an early favorite for the Heisman, but his chances will be measured on his team's success. Best and company head to Oregon (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) this week before a big home battle next Saturday against USC. The Golden Bears offense is averaging a conference-best 488 YPG and the attack is very balanced behind a very efficient gunslinger in Kevin Riley (65%, 698 yards, 5 TDs). After getting humbled by Boise State 19-8 in Week 1, Oregon has bounced back with a pair of victories at home, including a 31-24 win over then No. 18 Utah last Saturday. The Ducks almost blew leads of 14 and 18 points due to four turnovers and some untimely penalties. Plus, QB Jeremiah Masoli (45.3%, 379 yards) looked shaky for the Oregon offense, completing just 4-of-16 passes. Masoli has had more success running the football this year, racking up 145 yards and four touchdowns. Cal's secondary is one of the better units in football and most would expect Tedford to put eight in the box against a Ducks attack that is ranked 116th in passing offense with zero touchdowns in three games.
Gambling Notes
California has owned this series lately, winning and covering three straight against Oregon. In 2008, the Golden Bears dropped the Ducks 26-16 as 2 ½-point home favorites. The game was played in a rainstorm and the field was a complete mess due to the awful weather. Cal opened as a seven-point road favorite and most sportsbooks moved the number down to 6. Despite beating Minnesota last week on the road, Jeff Tedford and the Bears were just 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS outside of Berkeley last year. Catching points in Eugene for the Ducks doesn't happen often, the last time coming in 2005 when USC (-21) steamrolled Oregon 45-21. Lastly, turnovers are impossible to handicap but certain tendencies make you worry about Oregon, who's coughed up the ball eight times this season. Meanwhile, Cal has only turned it over once and they've notched seven takeaways. Will the Golden Bears get caught looking ahead to the Trojans, who look ripe for the taking?
Other Games to Watch
South Florida at Florida State
Not only were the Seminoles playing their third game in 12 days, they were playing on the road in a hostile setting against what was thought to be a quality BYU club. Bobby Bowden's team stepped up and thrashed the Cougars 54-28 in wire-to-wire fashion. Now they catch an unbeaten South Florida team, which just lost its starting quarterback Matt Grothe (knee) for the season. B.J. Daniels, a redshirt freshman, will make us find out if USF's success was a system or Grothe.
Indiana at Michigan
Indiana is 3-0 and we're talking football in Bloomington, not basketball. The Hoosiers will find out how good they are on Saturday when they battle Michigan in the Big House, where they've lost 15 straight. The Wolverines are laying three touchdowns in their homecoming battle at most outfits. On deck for Michigan is its intrastate rival Michigan State. Look ahead?
Southern Miss at Kansas
If you don't know who Damion Fletcher is, then tune into this game this weekend. The Southern Miss running back is a beast and could very well help the Golden Eagles come out of Lawrence with a win. It will take more than Fletcher's skills, in particular the Southern Miss defense. Last week, the unit was torched by UVA and now they face Kansas and the aerial attack of Todd Reesing.
North Carolina at Georgia Tech
Is Butch Davis and North Carolina overrated? The Tar Heels haven't exactly looked like a powerhouse in wins over UConn (12-10) and ECU (31-17). The Yellow Jackets were humbled last Thursday to Miami and their top running back is banged up as well. Last year, UNC won 28-7 in Chapel Hill but it was outgained (423-314). What was the difference? Three big turnovers…
TCU at Clemson
The Mountain West Conference took it on the chin last week as both BYU and Utah lost key non-conference battles. The Horned Frogs are still considered the class of the conference and already beat an ACC school (UVA, 30-14) on the road this year. This one could be ugly, considering Clemson's offense isn't clicking, evidenced by six field goals against Boston College.
Pittsburgh at N.C. State
The Panthers continue their four-game set against non-conference opponents and most would agree that the Wolfpack are their toughest test to date. Pittsburgh has a steady QB in Bill Stull (540 yards, 6 TDs) and a dynamic RB Dion Lewis (398 yards, 5 TDs) too. After putting up 3 points against South Carolina, N.C. State posted 65 and 45 against a pair of Subdivision teams. QB Russell Wilson tossed 8 TDs in the wins and appears to have gotten his confidence back.
Florida at Kentucky
After defeating Tennessee 23-13 last week, Florida didn't earn a lot of respect from its faithful or gamblers either. The Gators will look to win their 23rd straight game in a row against Kentucky. The Wildcats have a few playmakers on their squad but back-to-back games against Florida and then Alabama spell trouble for Rich Brooks' team.
Iowa at Penn State
Gamblers backing Penn State (0-3 ATS) haven't been treated nicely at the counter this year. Iowa upset Penn State 24-23 last year at home, which crushed the Nittany Lions' national championship hopes. It should be crazy on Saturday but Joe Paterno needs his offense to catch up with the defense.
Arizona State at Georgia
The Bulldogs dominated the Sun Devils 27-10 last year with a balanced attack (461 yards) through the air and ground. Georgia QB Joe Cox (738 yards, 8 TDs) has led the offense to 41 and 52 points in the team's last two wins but the defense has also surrendered 78 points. ASU hasn't played anybody yet, but UGA could be looking ahead to its battle against LSU next Saturday.
Texas Tech at Houston
The Red Raiders looked decent in their 34-24 road loss to Texas last week but they better get ready for another team in the Lone Star State that is on the rise. Houston has had extra time to prepare for this game and a win here would make a strong case for the Cougars to run the table and perhaps be the first CUSA team to garner an at-large BCS berth.
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