Garbageman's AI Predictions

oops, sorry about that bro, thanks for the relocation!

Posted by: @the-trashman

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oops, sorry about that bro, thanks for the relocation!

All is good.  I'm looking forward to how well it does. Stay with it and give it time

 

Hey trash good luck my brother on ur new endeavor if there is anything I can help us out with feel free to ask brother 

Appreciate the positive vibes guys.  I'm actively expanding my knowledge of AI and how to use it.  The interaction with GPT on building a custom program is quite interesting.  The AI consistently does things I tell it not to do, you have to be extremely specific on instructions.  I fed the custom GPT no less than 15 websites to research in order to predict games, including all stats, injuries, trends, weather, etc.  For some reason it likes to search particular sites only.  It's a work in progress but its interesting to work with.

As far as last nights results, it predicted both of the sides correctly and both totals wrong.  Let's see how it does with tonight's predictions.... 

MAC Football Predictions - November 8, 2023

1. Ohio Bobcats at Kent State Golden Flashes

• Kickoff: 7:00 PM ET
• Location: Dix Stadium, Kent, OH
• Weather: 65°F, cloudy with scattered showers, 10-15 mph winds which could impact the passing and kicking game.

Team Analysis:

• Ohio (5-3, 3-1 MAC):

  • Offense: Ohio averages 26.5 points per game, with QB Parker Navarro leading a balanced attack (14 TDs to only 5 INTs). WR Coleman Owen is coming off a standout game and provides a reliable target in the passing game. RB Anthony Tyus III has 610 rushing yards and 5 TDs, helping Ohio control the clock effectively​
     

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  • Defense: Ohio’s defense ranks as one of the better units in the MAC, allowing just 18.9 points per game (ranking in the top 30 nationally). They’ve been effective in limiting both rushing and passing yards, particularly against weaker offenses like Kent State’s.

• Kent State (0-8, 0-5 MAC):

  • Offense: The Golden Flashes struggle significantly, averaging only 15 points per game (near the bottom nationally). QB Tommy Ulatowski has had limited success with a low 11.7 QBR and only 6 passing TDs. RB Ky Thomas is the team’s main rushing threat, but he’s struggled behind an inconsistent offensive line​
     

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  • Defense: Kent State’s defense is ranked last in the FBS, allowing 46.6 points and 602 yards per game. They are weak against both the run and pass, creating minimal pressure and struggling to force turnovers, which makes it difficult to stop Ohio’s balanced offense.

Injury News:

• Ohio: No major injuries reported.
• Kent State: Injuries and lack of depth have plagued them, contributing to their defensive struggles.

Home Field Advantage:

• Kent State typically sees modest home support at Dix Stadium. While they may gain some comfort playing at home, their defensive and offensive struggles make it hard for them to capitalize on this advantage.

Prediction: Ohio should dominate this matchup by controlling both the ground and air. Kent State’s inability to stop the run or contain playmakers like Tyus and Owen will likely result in Ohio pulling ahead early. Weather conditions may slightly limit passing, but Ohio’s ground game should secure a comfortable win.

• Score Prediction: Ohio 34, Kent State 10

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2. Northern Illinois Huskies at Western Michigan Broncos

• Kickoff: 7:00 PM ET
• Location: Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo, MI (Western Michigan’s home field)
• Weather: Mostly clear, 40°F, light winds (5-10 mph), minimal weather impact expected.

Team Analysis:

• Northern Illinois (4-5, 3-2 MAC):

  • Offense: NIU averages 24.2 points per game. QB Rocky Lombardi has provided stability with 1,799 passing yards, 9 TDs, and 5 INTs. RB Antario Brown (914 yards, 7 TDs) is the team’s primary offensive weapon, and NIU relies heavily on his productivity to control the clock and sustain drives​
     

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  • Defense: NIU’s defense is a strong suit, ranking in the top half of the MAC, allowing only 22.7 points per game. They’re particularly adept at containing explosive plays, which will be key against Western Michigan’s rush-heavy offense. Their defense ranks well against the pass, allowing them to stack the box more comfortably against WMU’s run game​​.

• Western Michigan (4-6, 3-3 MAC):

  • Offense: The Broncos score 27.4 points per game, largely due to a strong running game led by RB Jalen Buckley (886 yards, 9 TDs). QB Hayden Wolff is efficient, completing 67.3% of his passes with 8 TDs and 3 INTs, though his role is mostly to complement the run​
     

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  • Defense: Western Michigan’s defense has struggled, allowing 32.3 points per game and ranking among the lower defenses in the MAC. They have trouble against both the run and pass, which could spell trouble against NIU’s balanced offense.

Injury News:

• Northern Illinois: No significant injuries reported among key players.
• Western Michigan: No significant injuries reported, but defensive inconsistencies remain a challenge.

Home Field Advantage:

• Waldo Stadium has been a favorable environment for Western Michigan, where they have shown improved defensive intensity and offensive productivity. While this home field is advantageous, NIU’s defense may counteract the crowd energy by containing Western Michigan’s offense early.

Prediction: NIU’s defensive advantage and balanced offense should allow them to control the game. Western Michigan’s defense may struggle to contain both NIU’s passing and running options, and the Broncos’ offense may find limited success against NIU’s stout front. With NIU able to limit explosive plays, they should be able to edge out Western Michigan, though it could be close.

• Score Prediction: Northern Illinois 27, Western Michigan 23

Florida Atlantic (FAU) vs. East Carolina (ECU)

Kickoff: 8:00 PM ET
Location: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC
Weather: Clear skies, around 61°F, winds 3-5 mph.

Team Breakdown:

Florida Atlantic Owls (FAU)

• Offense: FAU has averaged 24.0 points per game, which ranks 108th nationally, and 367 total yards per game. The Owls’ offensive production has been inconsistent, struggling on the road. QB Cam Fancher has passed for 1,460 yards this season, with 6 TDs and 6 INTs. His completion rate sits at 59.2%, highlighting some accuracy challenges under pressure. Fancher’s dual-threat capabilities add a layer, with 367 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs this season.
• Key Players:
  • RB CJ Campbell: FAU’s most reliable weapon on the ground, with 506 rushing yards, averaging 5.2 yards per carry, and 8 TDs. He also contributes in the passing game, with 253 receiving yards, making him a versatile option.
  • WR Omari Hayes: Leads FAU’s receiving corps with 444 yards and 2 TDs, averaging 63.4 yards per game.

East Carolina Pirates (ECU)

• Offense: ECU scores an average of 30.4 points per game, ranking 63rd. They are more consistent at home and show versatility in their offensive strategy, alternating between the passing and running game effectively. QB Jake Garcia has thrown for 1,426 yards but has struggled with turnovers, registering 12 INTs against 8 TDs.
• Key Players:
  • RB Rahjai Harris: Leads the rushing attack with 561 yards and 4 TDs, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. His ability to gain tough yardage keeps drives alive, especially on 3rd downs.
  • WR Winston Wright and Chase Sowell: The primary receiving duo, with Wright posting 344 yards and 4 TDs, while Sowell leads with 553 yards and 2 TDs.
• Defense: ECU allows 28.4 points per game, ranking 86th, and has struggled to create pressure in the backfield. Defensive back Omar Rogers has been a key contributor with 37 tackles and an interception.

Key Trends:

• FAU Trends: FAU has covered the spread in only three of their last eight games. Their road performances have been mixed, often struggling to establish offensive rhythm.
• ECU Trends: ECU is stronger at home, where they perform better offensively. They have covered the spread 3-3-1 this season, with a strong 2-1-1 record ATS in home games.

Matchup Analysis:

• Offensive Edge: ECU has the advantage here due to a more balanced and higher-scoring offense.
• Defensive Challenges: Both teams have struggled defensively, but ECU’s ability to create turnovers might tip the scales slightly.
• Home-Field Advantage: ECU’s performance at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium has been markedly better than on the road, adding an advantage.

Prediction:

Score Prediction: East Carolina 33, Florida Atlantic 24
ECU’s offensive edge and home-field advantage should lead them to victory, capitalizing on FAU’s inconsistent offense and turnover issues.

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Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina

Kickoff: 8:00 PM ET
Location: Brooks Stadium, Conway, SC
Weather: Clear skies, around 55°F, minimal winds at 3 mph.

Team Breakdown:

Appalachian State Mountaineers

• Offense: App State’s offense ranks 32nd nationally with 436.5 yards per game, scoring 26.9 points per game. They have a dynamic passing game, averaging 283.8 yards through the air (20th). QB Joey Aguilar has had a productive season, throwing for 2,270 yards, 18 TDs, and 10 INTs. He completes 56.5% of his passes but tends to take chances downfield.
• Key Players:
  • QB Joey Aguilar: His ability to stretch the field will challenge Coastal’s secondary, which ranks 67th in pass defense but is frequently tested due to a porous front seven.
  • WR Kaedin Robinson: Leads with 764 receiving yards and one TD, averaging 15.9 yards per catch.
  • RB Ahmani Marshall: Adds depth to the running game with 354 yards and 3 TDs, averaging 4.8 yards per carry.
• Defense: The Mountaineers have struggled defensively, allowing 34.4 points per game. LB Kyle Arnholt and DE Santana Hopper have been standouts, though the defense ranks 120th in points allowed.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

• Offense: Coastal Carolina scores 30.9 points per game, with a balanced attack of 386.0 yards per game (44th in points per game). QB Ethan Vasko has 1,401 passing yards, 9 TDs, and 4 INTs. RB Braydon Bennett has been efficient on the ground, with a high 6.5 yards per carry.
• Key Players:
  • QB Ethan Vasko: Known for his efficiency and ball control, Vasko provides stability at QB.
  • RB Braydon Bennett: Leads the backfield with 391 yards and 7 TDs, offering a power-running option that can exploit App State’s weak run defense.
  • WR Jameson Tucker: Primary deep threat with 414 yards and 4 TDs, averaging 18.8 yards per reception.
• Defense: Coastal Carolina’s defense ranks 114th, allowing 32.4 points per game and struggling against both the run and the pass. LB Shane Bruce is their top tackler with 59, and the defense has seen challenges with consistency, allowing over 210 rushing yards per game.

Key Trends:

• App State Trends: App State has been reliable in late-season games, covering the spread in five of their last six November matchups.
• Coastal Carolina Trends: Coastal has struggled against the spread, covering only once in their last six games. However, they perform better in high-stakes home games.

Matchup Analysis:

• Offensive Edge: Both teams are offensive powerhouses, but Appalachian State’s aerial attack might be better positioned to exploit Coastal Carolina’s weak secondary.
• Defensive Edge: Neither team has a clear defensive advantage, though Coastal’s ability to stop the run has been especially weak, which App State could capitalize on.
• Home-Field Advantage: Coastal Carolina has a strong home crowd, which has helped them stay competitive, particularly in close games.

Prediction:

Score Prediction: Appalachian State 34, Coastal Carolina 30
With both defenses vulnerable, this game is likely to be high-scoring. Appalachian State’s ability to exploit Coastal’s defense and slightly better recent form gives them an edge, even on the road.

Game Overview Bengals v Ravens

Kickoff: 8:15 PM ET
Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Weather: Clear skies, around 55°F, light breeze (3-5 mph).

This AFC North matchup between the 6-3 Ravens and the 4-5 Bengals could shape playoff trajectories, with the Ravens holding the lead in the division and the Bengals battling to stay in contention. The last meeting in Week 5 was a high-scoring thriller, with Baltimore narrowly winning 41-38 in overtime.

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Team Analysis

Baltimore Ravens

• Offense: Baltimore has the highest-scoring offense in the NFL, averaging 31.4 points and 445.9 yards per game. Their balanced attack ranks third in passing (254 YPG) and first in rushing (191.9 YPG), making them challenging to defend​

  • Key Player: Lamar Jackson – Jackson has 2,379 passing yards with 20 TDs against only 2 INTs, and 505 rushing yards, making him a dual-threat. He is averaging a career-best 68.2% completion rate and has a passer rating of 123.9 on deep throws (15+ yards).
  • Key Weapons: RB Derrick Henry (averaging 116.9 rushing yards per game) and WR Zay Flowers (654 yards, 3 TDs) keep defenses on their toes, both with big-play ability and red zone efficiency.

• Defense: Baltimore’s defense is somewhat contradictory – they rank first in rush defense, allowing just 75.7 yards per game, but their pass defense ranks last, allowing 280.9 passing yards per game. Despite this, they have managed to limit scoring effectively, giving up 24.3 points per game.

  • Key Players: Roquan Smith leads with 86 tackles, while Kyle Van Noy provides pass rush pressure with seven sacks. Baltimore’s secondary has struggled, so pressure on Burrow will be essential to cover this weakness​

Cincinnati Bengals

• Offense: Cincinnati averages 26.2 points per game and is led by QB Joe Burrow, who is coming off a stellar performance against the Raiders with 251 passing yards and 5 TDs. The Bengals rank 7th in passing (236.3 YPG) but only 27th in rushing (94.2 YPG), making them one-dimensional.

  • Key Player: Joe Burrow – Burrow has 2,244 yards, 20 TDs, and 4 INTs on the season, performing particularly well on third downs. Without Tee Higgins, Burrow will lean heavily on Ja'Marr Chase, who has 717 receiving yards and 7 TDs this season​
  • Key Weapons: WR Ja'Marr Chase – The league’s second-leading receiver, Chase averages 6.1 catches per game, often seeing double coverage yet still making big plays. RB Chase Brown has stepped up in the run game but will face a stiff test against the Ravens’ elite run defense​
     

• Defense: Cincinnati allows 25.2 points per game, with significant issues against the run (130.4 YPG allowed). Pass rusher Trey Hendrickson has been a standout, with an NFL-leading 11 sacks, but the Bengals’ secondary has been inconsistent. They must find ways to slow Jackson’s dual-threat capabilities​

   

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Key Matchups

1. Lamar Jackson vs. Cincinnati Pass Defense: Jackson has been excellent on deep throws and quick escapes. The Bengals will look to disrupt him with Hendrickson’s pass rush and try to force quick throws.

2. Ja'Marr Chase vs. Ravens Secondary: Chase has exploited Baltimore’s secondary before, and without Higgins, he will be Burrow’s go-to target. Baltimore’s defensive backs need a game plan to limit Chase’s impact.

3. Ravens Rushing Attack vs. Bengals Run Defense: Baltimore’s run game, led by Derrick Henry, has been one of the best, and they’ll look to exploit the Bengals’ porous run defense. Cincinnati must stack the box and take risks in coverage to avoid being overrun.

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Injuries

• Bengals: WR Tee Higgins (quad) is questionable, which would significantly impact the passing game. The Bengals rely heavily on Higgins for additional big plays opposite Chase​
• Ravens: No significant offensive injuries, though their secondary depth has been tested in recent games​
   

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Trends and Series History

• Ravens Trends: Baltimore is 6-3 ATS, covering four of their last six as favorites. They are 9-1 on the over this season, with their offensive potency driving high-scoring games​
   

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• Bengals Trends: Cincinnati is 5-4 ATS, 6-3 to the over, and has struggled against top-tier teams. They’ve covered in only one game as underdogs by 6 points or more​.
• Series Trends: Baltimore leads the recent rivalry, having won three of the last five matchups. High scoring has defined recent meetings, with the last matchup totaling 79 points​
   

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Prediction

Score Prediction: Ravens 34, Bengals 28

Summary: Baltimore’s balanced, high-powered offense should keep the Bengals’ defense under constant pressure. Lamar Jackson’s dual-threat capabilities and Derrick Henry’s power running could overwhelm Cincinnati’s struggling run defense. While Burrow and Chase are capable of explosive plays, the absence of Tee Higgins could limit options in critical moments. The Ravens’ home-field advantage and the Bengals’ recent struggles against elite opponents make Baltimore the favored choice.

Expect another high-scoring affair, with the Ravens controlling the tempo through their ground game and Jackson’s versatility.