Georgia's 2009 schedule analysis and forecast
By The Prez
Georgia was the preseason No. 1 team in the country last year and everything seemed in place for the Dawgs to be in the national title race: a future NFL franchise QB in Matthew Stafford, an All-American-caliber running back in Knowshon Moreno and a super-freshman WR in A.J. Green.
But injuries played a huge role in Georgia’s disappointing season. The Dawgs lost three games and their defense was shredded in all three, allowing 41 points to Alabama, 49 points to Florida and 45 to Georgia Tech. The unit also allowed 38 points against Kentucky and LSU.
A 24-12 win over Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl assured Georgia double-digit wins for the sixth time in the last seven seasons. But it also was the end of Stafford’s and Moreno’s career as both headed off to the NFL draft. And that probably means a bit of rebuilding this year.
Georgia finished last season at No. 16 in the AP poll and that’s about where many experts have them pegged in 2009 preseason polls. The Dawgs return 13 total starters.
Here’s Georgia’s 2009 schedule:
September 5 at Oklahoma State
September 12 vs. South Carolina
September 19 at Arkansas
September 26 vs. Arizona State
October 3 vs. LSU
October 10 at Tennessee
October 17 at Vanderbilt
October 31 vs. Florida (Jacksonville)
November 7 vs. Tennessee Tech
November 14 vs. Auburn
November 21 vs. Kentucky
November 28 at Georgia Tech
Georgia’s over/under regular-season wins this year is 8.5 and I think the Dawgs fall just under that number (remember, any bowl wins don’t count). Fifth-year senior Joe Cox, he of the 33 career passes, takes over for Stafford. Caleb King should get most of the carries in place of Moreno, and he has a high ceiling. The good news is that eight guys who have started games on the offensive line are back this year, so that unit should be a source of strength a year after it was a soft spot.
The schedule is brutal, so winning more than eight games seems unlikely.
Kudos to Georgia for opening with such a tough game. The Cowboys will be a preseason top-10 team with one of the best offenses in the country. Can’t imagine this revamped UGA team winning in Stillwater.
There really isn’t a gimme game in all of September, although I think Georgia does finish the month 3-1.
LSU should be a much better team this year. The Tigers allowed 52 points in a home loss to Georgia last year. But Georgia has had LSU’s number of late, winning three in a row in the series. Call it a close win for the Dawgs.
But that Tennessee game a week later will be a bit of a trap. The Vols will get their first big win under Lane Kiffin. Vandy should then pose few problems and Georgia gets two weeks to prepare for its showdown with Florida.
The Gators had no trouble in this game last year and won’t again – there’s just too much talent on that team. UF will probably clinch the SEC East in this game.
Look for Georgia to get back on track with three straight home wins to start November. The Yellow Jackets in the season finale have arguably the best running attack in the nation. They gouged Georgia for 409 yards rushing last year and get the game in Atlanta in 2009.
That’s loss No. 4 for the Dawgs, which means a 10-win season won’t be in the cards this year.
Georgia is +500 at BetUS.com to win the SEC East and +800 to win the SEC title. Putting money down there is just throwing it away, especially with the Gators in the same division.