Getting a game plan for betting the NFL preseason
By David Jones
One-hundred and eighty-eight days. That’s much time will have passed since Super Bowl XLIII when the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans take the field on Sunday in the Hall of Fame game.
While fans tolerate the preseason because of the football drought, sharp bettors cherish it.
Here are few ways to be successful betting the exhibition calendar:
New sheriff in town
Since new head coaches are stepping into losing situations, there is a view that these new leaders will try to establish a winning mentality right out of the gate.
First year coaches went 9-8 against the spread last season and 15-14 in 2007. Obviously the stats aren’t overwhelming but in most cases, new sideline bosses like to win their first game, even if it’s an exhibition.
The chaos theory
Clubs with starting quarterback battles are perceived by many to have some value in the preseason. The idea is that these squads will be more aggressive with their offense to give them the best opportunity to evaluate who will start at the most important position on the field.
The seven squads that had some starting quarterback questions heading into the 2008 preseason went 12-16 ATS.
Numbing numbers
Even trends over multiple seasons can be a little shaky. In 2006-07, unders went 21-9-3 in the first full week of the pre-season (Hall of Fame games included). Last year, the majority of the games went over the total with 10 of the 17 contests yielding 35 or more total points.
The game plan
The preseason is about evaluating personnel while avoiding injuries. The regular season is about winning. So, handicappers must adjust accordingly.
During the regular season, coaches say little in their encounters with the print and broadcast media. They give generic answers about the upcoming game and will avoid giving their foes any bulletin board material to use.
Usually, the status of injured players is the most important topic of these media sessions. However, the coaches rarely add much to the widely available injury reports that are distributed by the league. In the regular season, the best available players will play.
This is not the case in the preseason.
The comments of coaches this time are usually more helpful to handicappers than the predictable quotes from the regular season. Before each preseason game, the head coach will usually inform the media of how much the first, second and third string units will play in the upcoming contest.
There are also some other subtle concepts to consider that are less obvious than new coaches or starting quarterback battles. There are teams that have a returning head coach but are breaking in a new coordinator on offense or defense.
What about teams that have a battle going for the backup quarterback spot? With the established starting QB exiting by halftime in three of the four pre-season games, the teams looking to fill the important backup spot are likely to be more aggressive in the passing game to find a reliable No. 2 signal-caller.
The preseason is bizarro world to the regular season. Last year’s Detroit Lions are the perfect example. They went 4-0 in August and became the first team to ever go 0-16 in the regular season.
All you need is a plan. Other factors you may want to consider is coaching philosphy, trick plays, Fisher is well known for doing things out of the ordinary, Belichick too. Some other coaches may throw in a wrinkle after a year or two in the league. New head coaches will be very basic.
Another insight is the fact that a team performed poorly last year, and will try to win in any opportunity the following year, hence, the Detroit Lions, St. Louis Rams, Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland Browns, and Seattle Seahawks. All these teams have new head coaches, Oakland is classified as new, even though Cable did coach 3/4 of the year, it wasn't his set up to start the year.
Depth at quarterback plays a big part. Situations arise when the starter has to play longer due to injuries sustained by back-ups. Fewer quarterbacks can be an advantage if a guy is allowed to establish a rythem on offense.
The best information I get, is from the team's local newspaper, and yes it is a pain to pull up 32 newspapers a day, but you can get a feel for what the teams are going to do, and put yourself on the right side more times than not.
Another thing is line movement. A half point will keep you from from winning if you wait. Look at the game ahead of time so you can get the better line.
The best information I get, is from the team's local newspaper, and yes it is a pain to pull up 32 newspapers a day, but you can get a feel for what the teams are going to do, and put yourself on the right side more times than not.
Great write up vegasflyer and I agree with you 100% about gathering all the info you can,if you can stay ahead of the guy making the lines especially if you concentrate on one conference etc you have a distinct advantage cause you have more info than him more than likely. I am lucky and have a job with lots of downtime and I spend the majority of it searching the web for all the info I can find.
Here is some great links to find most major newspapers.
Links to coverage for all 30 MLB teams
http://www.1918redsox.com/pedro/papers.htm
Various Newspapers
Thanks Blade, I am always looking for ways to cut my research down. I had my operation finally in May, after the botched one in December. I have had alot of time off to research each team in the NFL, and I have worked as hard as I ever had on any season. This I would say, I have never been more prepared going in to a season than this year. I released my handicapping book in July at the Gamblers Book Shop, here in Las Vegas. They have podcasts of several well known gamblers on their website at gamblerbookshop.com and every kind of football, blackjack, poker, any subject to do with gambling there. I am looking forward to a great season. Also, I just wanted to say that you do a great job on this site, and I look forward to your commentary this year. Mike
I know the Gamblers Book Shop well I went there many times when I lived in Vegas but that was the old location off of Charleston and congrats on the book. Go ahead and throw a link up for the book if you want others might be interested in buying it.
I actually have this book from there ;D
The Las Vegas Linemaker, It's available at vegasflyer.net or the Gamblers Book Shop, for some reason I couldn't insert the image, but you can see it at either place. Blade, I'll pick up a copy of your book, when I go back up to the book shop. They moved off of Tropicana.
You know Howard Schwartz that owns the book store. He told me some crazy guy tried to kill him after he had locked up the store, and was getting into his car. I think they put him in some kind of psych ward or something. He said he was glad to move to the new location. And also thanks for the links, again. I have a few different ones too. So If I catch some info that the others don't have, I'll drop you a line. Mike
The book contains power ratings for each team, an adjustment and statistical page for every game,opening odds to win division,conference,make the playoffs, and win the Super Bowl. Includes opening lines for September 13th. Also has last 3 years of power rating performance for each team,quarterback ratings,offensive and defensive rankings and alot more. Its a great book to make your own line, and gives you another tool against the spread. Charts are color-coded for ease of use. 70 pages, binded, 2009.
http://www.gamblersbook.com/product.php?productid=18232&cat=0&page=1
Here you go and congrats on the book. 😉
That isn't my book I bought it when I broke into the business in Vegas
Thanks, I was hitting the insert image, but it wasn't doing anything. I should of just copied and pasted it. I will put a link to your website on my front page, as you do a really great job through out the season, actualy all year. Mike
To post a pic right click over the image and click on proprieties then copy address,then hit insert image icon which is second one on the middle row then insert address between the two insert images icon.