Give & Take at the Books
By Micah Roberts
The Las Vegas Sports Books struggled on Saturday with a lot key favored teams covering, making it their least profitable Saturday of the season after five weeks. In Pro Football, the books had gone 1-2 against the Public through the first three weeks, but week four started out great.
“We did really well in the early games with teams like the Titans and Ravens not doing well, said MGM-Mirage Race and Sports Director Jay Rood. “But in the late games with favorites like Saints and 49ers coming through, we gave some of it back.”
Over at the Las Vegas Hilton, Executive Director Jay Kornegay had similar results.
“We lost a little on Saturday and won a little on Sunday.” said Kornegay. “I wouldn’t call it a push, but overall we were slight winner.“
The encouraging note for the books is that the two teams that had been virtual bet against all season, the Browns and Buccaneers, covered their spreads despite losing.
The downside is that a team like the Saints continues to roll, much to delight of the betting public who throw the Saints on just about every parlay ticket because the perception has been that they’ll win and cover no matter what the spread is.
What’s even worse for the books is that teams like Oakland, Kansas City and St Louis are being bet against by the public just because they continue to cash against them every week. Why would you stop betting against them?
“We’re not going to over-adjust too much on the big favorites," Kornegay said. “History tells us that at some point these bad Pro Football teams will be competitive and will cover balancing out some opinions. Most of our Public action on these games doesn’t come until Saturday’s and most of the sharp players don’t like laying the big numbers like the public does, so we’ll just watch and make subtle adjustments on the big numbers.”
The biggest numbers of the week are all going against the dregs of the NFL with the Vikings laying -10 at the Rams, Philly -13.5 at home against Tampa Bay, the Giants -15.5 at home versus the Raiders, and the Steelers laying -10.5 at the Lions. While the wise guys won’t play those favorites, the public will and if all four of those get there this week, it’ll be a tough week five for the books.
The Saints have a bye week, but the Colts will likely be that other public team they jump all over this week after winning convincingly the last two weeks and covering three straight. This week the Colts are laying -4 at the winless Titans, a tough game, but nevertheless, one that will still be bet by most of the public.
College Football Line Move of the Week
The best move came early and often on Michigan State at home against Michigan. The original line had Michigan favored by -1, but quickly moved to State being favored until it eventually closed with the Spartans being a -4 point favorite.
This was one of the strongest plays by a top service which cased the initial movement and it came through with a 26-20 win in overtime, but not without causing some sweat thanks to more late game heroics by Michigan Freshman QB Tate Forcier who tied the game with seconds left. In the end, it was Forcier who forced an errant intercepted pass in overtime that doomed Michigan.
Because Michigan failed to tackle following the OT interception, State ran it right in 25 yards out for the clinching score meaning that all the late followers of the service play got paid too because most of them laid -3.5 or -4, when the suggested send was laying up to -2.5. It was likely State was just lining up for the game winning field goal when the Wolverines true weakness, tackling, exposed themselves again.
Big Game Under the Lights In Baton Rouge
This week we get another chance to watch a Top-5 team fall out again, which will be the sixth time this season. The No. 1 ranked Florida Gators travel to Baton Rouge to face LSU for what is sure to be an epic battle and help shape the face of the 2009 season between the two teams that have the last three National Championships.
The winner of the game will be in the driver’s seat of the SEC and if the winner is LSU, things could get real interesting just because LSU has a much tougher road ahead of them. Following Florida, the Tigers have to play Auburn and then they have two tough road games later in the season at Alabama and Mississippi.
Florida’s road gets much easier if they are able to dispose of the Tigers this week with only a road game at South Carolina presenting any real danger. They don’t have to play either Alabama or Mississippi on their schedule unless it’s in the SEC Championship game.
The big story coming into the game is the status of Tim Tebow after suffering a concussion in Florida’s win at Kentucky last week. Team officials have been quiet about all reports which causes some concern, but it would be a major shocker if he didn’t play.
The Books are using caution in their approach of the game offering the Gators a -9 point road favorite as a circle game taking limited wagers.
“I would expect Tebow to play, but not be 100%,” Kornegay said.
Since 2000, the two teams have played to a near stalemate with Florida holding a 5-4 lead. Over the same time span, each team has won two BCS Titles and three SEC Titles. Needless to say this game is huge and it will be interesting to see what side the bettors, both public and sharp, lean towards.