GMAC Bowl: Troy Trojans vs. Central Michigan Chippewas
The Troy Trojans and the Central Michigan Chippewas will both be gunning for a victory when they meet at Ladd Peebles Stadium in the GMAC Bowl.
Oddsmakers currently have the Chippewas listed as 3½-point favorites versus the Trojans, while the game's total is sitting at 63.
Troy scored 24 points in the fourth quarter to roar past Louisiana-Lafayette 48-31 in Week 13. Troy covered the 10.5-point spread, and the 79 points sailed OVER the posted total of 58.
Central Michigan roared out to an early lead en route to a 20-10 victory over Ohio in Week 14. Central Michigan failed to cover the 13.5-point spread, while the 30 points went UNDER the posted total of 57.
Team records:
Troy: 9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS
Central Michigan: 11-2 SU, 9-3 ATS
Troy most recently:
When playing on turf are 9-1
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing outside the conference are 3-7
After playing Louisiana-Lafayette are 5-0
Central Michigan most recently:
When playing on turf are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing outside the conference are 4-6
After playing Ohio are 2-3
A few trends to consider:
Troy is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Troy's last 7 games
Troy is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
Central Michigan is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
Central Michigan is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Central Michigan's last 7 games
TROY (9 - 3) vs. C MICHIGAN (11 - 2)
Top Trends for this game.
TROY is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TROY is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
TROY vs. CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Troy is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
Troy is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Central Michigan is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Central Michigan is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
Troy vs. Central Michigan
Troy
9-1 Over as an underdog
3-12 ATS Away off BB ATS wins
Central Michigan
19-6 ATS off an Under
7-0 Under as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
What Bettors Need To Know: GMAC Bowl
By ADAM THOMPSON
Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Troy Trojans (+3, 63)
If you like vertical passing games, you’ll love the GMAC Bowl, which features two quarterbacks who combined for nearly 7,000 yards this season. Central Michigan (11-2) takes on Troy (9-3) in the game before “The Game”.
Line movement
Central Michigan’s spread has fallen from -4 in opening lines to -3.5 and -3, while the total opened at 63.5 points and has dipped just slightly.
Weather/location report
Monday in Mobile, Ala., is expected to be sunny, but with a high of just 45 degrees. While the cold could be beneficial for Central Michigan, the GMAC Bowl is being played less than three hours from Troy’s campus, potentially providing a quasi-home game atmosphere.
The LeFevour Show
Stop Central Michigan’s offense, and you stop Central Michigan. The Chippewas scored 20 points or more in all 11 of their wins and scored 29 or more eight times, but was held to 10 and six points in their two losses (to Arizona and Boston College, respectively).
Which means, stop quarterback Dan LeFevour. The GMAC Bowl marks the end of the magnificent career LeFevour, the all-time FBS leader in TDs with 148.
Compared as a small-school Tim Tebow, the 6-3, 240-pound LeFevour this season threw for 3,043 yards, 27 TD and six INT while also leading the team rushing with 701 yards and 14 TD.
LeFevour’s three-step drop style forces defenses to get to him fast.
His favorite target is playmaking wideout and returner Antonio Brown, who gained 1,020 as a wideout and is a constant threat on returns.
The Levi Show
Troy’s Levi Brown threw for 3,862 yards and 22 TD and leads an offense that ranked No. 3 nationally averaging 478 total yards. The Trojans scored 40 or more points in six of their final eight games.
Troy’s offense is as explosive as they come. The Trojans had a whopping 30 scoring drives of two minutes or less. It has also been bolstered by the emergence of freshman running back Shawn Southward, who took over the starting duties late this season, but rushed for 140 yards on 19 carries in a win over Western Kentucky on November 7.
Coaching change
Central Michigan goes into the game without a head coach, as Butch Jones accepted the opening at Cincinnati. Assistant Steve Stripling was named interim coach for the bowl game. Stripling was the associate head coach-defense and worked mostly with the defensive line. How that will alter the team’s gameplan – if at all – remains to be seen.
Defensive stance
Despite the offensive accolades that Central Michigan is given, its defense actually ranked No. 1 in the MAC in points allowed (17.2), was second in yards allowed (326.7) and the passing defense was solid (207.4). The unit ranked 17th nationally.
Troy’s defense, meanwhile, did just enough in a weak Sun Belt to win. The Trojans were especially poor against the pass, allowing 277 yards per game through the air.
Inexperience in the defensive backfield is a big reason. Senior corner Jorrick Calvin, the only returning starting DB from last year, hasn’t played this season due to academics.
Injury report
Slowing Central Michigan’s passing attack was going to be hard enough as it was, but Troy senior DB Courtland Fuller tore his ACL in the season finale against Louisiana-Lafayette and is out.
Central Michigan comes into the game healed.
Grades report
Troy sophomore wideout Chip Reeves, who had 22 catches for 363 yards, was declared academically ineligible last week.
A common foe
The two teams have one similar opponent. Troy opened its season by losing at Bowling Green 31-14, while Central Michigan won at Bowling Green 24-10 in MAC play.
The Sun Belt was widely regarded as the worst Division-I conference in the nation. Troy passed right through its league schedule, but did not fare well at all in its three non-conference games, all blowout losses.
Central Michigan, also went unbeaten in its conference, but also knocked off Michigan State 29-28 in non-conference play.
Other trends and notes
Troy has won at least a share of the last four Sun Belt championships. Central Michigan has won three of the last four MAC titles.
The over is 10-1 the last 11 games Troy has been underdog.
Troy is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games.
Central Michigan is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games on grass, but Troy is 7-2 ATS on grass in its last nine games.
The under is 4-0 in Central Michigan’s last four games as a favorite at a neutral site.
GMAC Bowl Preview
By Judd Hall
Most people are writing off the GMAC Bowl as a pee-wee bowl looking to get attention before the national championship game. What people aren’t realizing is that the battle between Central Michigan (11-2 straight up, 9-3 against the spread) and Troy (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) on ESPN at 7:00 p.m. EST is between two of college football’s most consistent programs.
If you need some coercing from the sportsbooks to believe that this is a decent matchup, then they’ll happily oblige. The betting shops have made the Chippewas three-point favorites with a total of 63. The combined score mark makes sense, but the spread is indicative of a standard number between teams that are awfully close.
Central Michigan has been the class of the Mid-American Conference by winning three of the last four league championships. Of course, it helps to have one of the nation’s best quarterbacks over the last four years under center.
Dan LeFevour has completed 67 percent of his passes for 240.6 yards per game and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of nearly 3:1 during his four years in Mount Pleasant. Plus, we can’t forget to mention that he is the Football Bowl Subdivision record holder for touchdowns scored with 148. CMU’s signal caller brings his career to a close by ranking seventh nationally in pass efficiency with a 154.0 rating, while connecting on 71 percent of his throws for 3,043 yards and 27 scores to just six interceptions.
LeFevour also has two of the more accomplished receivers in the college game with Antonio Brown and Bryan Anderson. Brown is picking up around 10.5 yards per catch with nine scores to his credit. Anderson, a senior wide-out from Rockford, Michigan, is averaging 12.3 YPC and has found his way to the end zone six times.
Something else that leads you to believe that the Chippewas should have success against a Troy secondary that has surrendered 277.8 YPG through the air, which ranks them 116th nationally. Even if the Trojans shut down the aerial assault, they have to account for LeFevour’s ability to run. CMU’s signal caller has gained 701 yards on the ground with 14 scores.
Even though Central Michigan’s offense appears to have a great matchup against the Trojan’s defense, bettors aren’t so convinced. According to Sportsbook.com, 51 percent of the money they’ve seen come in has been on Troy to cover as a pup.
Maybe gamblers have had their ass bitten one too many times by the MAC. The teams of the Mid-American Conference has shown that they known how to burn up a bankroll by going 1-15 SU and 3-13 ATS in their last 16 bowl games.
We should mention that the MAC has been more competitive in the year’s bowl season. The league has gone 0-4 SU and ATS, but could easily be 3-1 SU and ATS. Temple choked in the second half against UCLA (21-30), Ohio landed just short against Marshall (17-21) and Bowling Green lost to Idaho on a ballsy two-point conversion (42-43) in the final seconds of regulation. Only Northern Illinois showed they had no business making it to a bowl game when they got demolished by South Florida in the International Bowl from Toronto.
The Trojans don’t much love, but you can’t deny what they’ve done in the Sun Belt Conference. Troy has taken at least a share of the league championship in the last four seasons.
Troy isn’t a slouch when it comes to throwing the ball as they’ve averaged 331.0 YPG through the air to rank fourth nationally. That attack rests solely on the shoulders of Levi Brown. All this senior gun slinger has done in 2009 is connect on 65 percent of his pass attempts for 3,868 yards with 22 scores and nine picks. Also, Brown has proven to be one of college football more efficient passers, as evidenced by ranking 13th in the nation with a pass efficiency rating of 149.4.
Brown’s top target this season has been Jerrel Jernigan. The junior receiver has made 62 catches this season, averaging 15.3 YPC and four touchdowns. CMU can’t focus only on Jernigan when you have a guy like Tebiarus Gill sneaking in under him. Gill has snared 44 passes for 12.6 YPC and six scores. The junior transfer from Jones County CC has picked up 106 yards on eight receptions for a pair of touchdowns in his last two games.
The Trojans will have to be on top of their game this Wednesday against Central Michigan’s pass defense. The Chippewas are giving up 207.4 YPG to come in 45th in the country against the pass. They also have picked off 11 passes this season, one going back to the house.
Bettors should know that the Sun Belt has been worth taking a flyer on as their teams are 4-2 SU and ATS in bowl games since 2006. Plus, Middle Tennessee State did the league proud by winning outright 42-32 as a four-point underdog against Southern Miss in the New Orleans Bowl.
Central Michigan may not be getting the love from the public to cover the spread, but they should keep in mind that the Chips are 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS as favorites in 2009. Troy, on the other hand, is 1-2 SU and ATS as an underdog this season.
The Trojans haven’t fared terribly in their last four bowl games with a 2-2 SU record. The gambling public has learned to fade them since they’re 1-3 ATS in those tilts.
The Chippewas have been part of that problem for the MAC in the postseason with a 1-2 SU mark. However, they have covered the spread in two of those three contests.
CMU hasn’t had much experience versus the Sun Belt with just one game. The Chips won that game against Middle Tennessee State 31-14 as 8 ½-point favorites at the 2006 Motor City Bowl.
Troy has had less than stellar results against the MAC. The Trojans are just 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS in their last six tilts against the Midwest’s version of the Sun Belt. The ‘over’ went 4-2 in that stretch as well.
vegasinsider.com
Troy (9-3, 8-4 ATS) vs. (25) Central Michigan (11-2, 9-3 ATS)
In a matchup of two of the most exciting quarterbacks in college football, conference champions Troy and Central Michigan will square off inside Ladd Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Ala.
The Trojans, winners of the Sun Belt Conference, showed they can light up the scoreboard this season, putting up 33.1 points per game while ranking third in the Football Bowl Subdivision at 480.7 yards per contest and fourth in the country with 331 yards passing per game. Troy, which ranked 18th nationally in scoring, topped the 40-point mark in six of their final seven games with the only exception coming in a 56-20 loss at SEC power Arkansas, falling as a 14-point underdog.
Central Michigan ranks one spot ahead of Troy in points scored at 33.2 ppg, and manages 417.7 total yards per game (32nd in the country), including 172.9 rushing yards per game (41st). The Chippewas beat Ohio 20-10 in the Mid-American Conference title game Dec. 4, coming up short as 13½-point favorites. Central Michigan finished undefeated in conference play en route to its third MAC crown in the last four years, and enters this game on a four-game overall winning streak (3-1 ATS).
The Trojans are in their second consecutive bowl game and fourth in school history, all since 2004. Their last two postseason trips were to the New Orleans Bowl, beating Rice 41-17 in 2006 as a 4½-point underdog for their first bowl victory, followed by last year’s 30-27 overtime loss to Southern Mississippi as a 4½-point favorite.
Central Michigan is playing in its fourth consecutive bowl game, the first three coming in the Motor City Bowl. The Chippewas fell to Sun Belt foe Florida Atlantic 24-21 as seven-point favorites last season and last won a postseason game in 2006 when they clobbered Middle Tennessee (also from the Sun Belt) 31-14 as 8½-point favorites.
The battle of quarterbacks puts Troy senior Levi Brown up against Central Michigan’s four-year starter Dan LeFevour. Brown ranks second in the nation with 322.3 passing yards per game and his 3,868 yards passing was a record for both Troy and the Sun Belt Conference. LeFevour completes 71.2 percent of his throws and he had 27 TD strikes this season to go with 14 scoring runs. His 147 career touchdowns set the major college football mark he previously shared with former Hawaii QB Colt Brennan and ex-Texas Tech signal caller Graham Harrell.
Troy is just 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games, but it is on pointspread surges of 8-2 overall, 6-1 after a spread-cover, 20-8 after a straight-up win and 5-2 against teams with a winning record. Central Michigan is on positive ATS streaks of 39-16-2 overall, 25-9-2 as a favorite, 11-2-1 after a non-cover and 5-2 after a straight-up win.
The Trojans are on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 6-1 overall, 10-1 as an underdog, 10-4 in non-conference games and 5-1 after a straight-up win. The Chippewas have topped the posted total in 11 of 17 non-conference games and nine of 11 after a non-cover, but Central Michigan is also on “under” streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 in neutral-site games and 4-0 on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CENTRAL MICHIGAN and OVER
GMAC Bow. Preview and Pick
Troy Trojans (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) vs. Central Michigan Chippewas (11-2 SU, 9-3 ATS)
Point Spread: Troy +3.5/Central Michigan -3.5
Over/Under: 63
Two repeat conference champions will meet for the first time in a game that will serve as the primer the night before the BCS Championship game, when the Sun Belt Champion Troy Trojans take on the Mid-American Champion Central Michigan Chippewas in the GMAC Bowl in Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama, Wednesday night on ESPN.
The Trojans ran the table in the Sun Belt Conference going 8-0 to earn their fourth straight conference title (or share), with by far their biggest victory of the season coming all the way back in early October when they beat Middle Tennessee, 31-7. The Trojans did finish the season on a mini hot streak, winning two in a row to become the first team from the state of Alabama to play in a bowl game in their home state.
The Chippewas come into the game ranked 25th in the last AP poll, the first time in school history they have ever been ranked in the top-25. They also enter the game as MAC champs for the third time in the last four seasons, sporting a four-game winning streak in the process.
But all of that success has its price, as the Chippewas will be without head coach Butch Jones for the bowl game. Jones was named the successor to Brian Kelly, again, taking the Cincinnati job a few weeks back to move up the coaching ladder and into a BCS program. Associate head coach Steve Stripling will coach the Chippewas in the GMAC Bowl.
Even with the change at the top of the program, the oddsmakers out in Las Vegas still think the Chippewas are the team to beat in this matchup, installing Central Michigan as 4-point favorites when the board lit up for the first time. Early wagering has moved the point spread down the hook to 3.5 at most offshore sportsbooks, but you can still find a few 4’s here and there (SportsInteraction), and even a few 3’s (5Dimes, Mirage, LV Hilton).
The over/under total opened at 64 and has dropped a point to 63 at a majority of the sportsbooks on the Web. There are a few 63.5s out there though if you want the half-point.
Two of the better but unknown quarterbacks in the college game will be featured Wednesday when Troy’s Levi Brown and Central Michigan’s Dan LeFevour take the field. Both players were named their conference’s player of the year this season, as the pair has combined for over 7,600 yards passing and 64 touchdowns this season. Both quarterbacks also lead offensive attacks that average over 33 points per game, so this game could turn into battle of attrition.
Brown and the Trojans finished the year as the nation’s 3rd-ranked offense, amassing 480.7 yards per game with over 300 of those yards coming via the passing game (331 ypg – 4th). Brown threw for 3,868 yards and 22 touchdowns, with his favorite targets being receivers Jerrel Jernigan (947 yds., 4 TD) and Tebiarus Gill (553 yds., 3 TD). The Trojans pass the ball so well that their top running back, Shawn Southward, only had 573 yards rushing on the season despite a 5.8 yards per carry average.
On the other sideline, LeFevour literally IS the Chippewas offense. Not only did the senior throw for 3,042 yards and 27 touchdowns, but he was also the team’s leading runner (703 yards) and added 14 rushing touchdowns on the ground too.
Antonio Brown is the LeFavour’s top target (97 rec., 1,020 yds., 9 TD), but the Chippewas have six players that have at least two touchdown catches on the season, including their top running back Bryan Schroeder (5.6 ave., 5 TD).
It’s the defensive side of the ball where these two teams seem to separate themselves.
Central Michigan won the MAC title because they were able to play defense, limiting opponent’s to just 326.7 yards a game (207.4 ypg passing) and only 17.2 points per game, the 14th-best scoring defense in the NCAA.
Troy … not so much. In fact, the Trojans allow almost as much yardage (420 ypg – 107th) as they put up themselves, and they also allow over four scores a game (28.6 ppg – 87th), so defense is something of a four-letter word in the land of Troy.
As mentioned, this will be the first-ever meeting between the two schools. It will be the Chippewas fourth-straight bowl appearance, but their first in the GMAC Bowl. Troy will also be making their first appearance in the GMAC, but will be making their second straight bowl appearance and fourth in the last six years.
As far as betting trends go, there are a few that make you stop and pause.
Troy is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall, but just 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
The over is 10-1 in the Trojans last 11 games as an underdog, and it’s also 11-5-1 in Central Michigan’s last 17 non-conference games.
Badger’s Pick: When in doubt, I gotta go with the team that plays better defense. Both offenses are going to score, but the Chippewas are better equipped at stopping the Trojans every now and then. Take Central Michigan minus the 3.5-points.
Predictem.com
GMAC Bowl Betting Preview
By Doug Upstone
Quick, without looking it up, name the four bowl matchups that pitted two conference champions against one another. If you guessed Rose, Fiesta, BCS and the GMAC, advance to next page to collect your prize. (Sorry not really) Actually this bowl is full of surprises, some good and some not so good.
The GMAC Bowl has produced the most lopsided games of any bowls in recent years, as favorites are on an incredible 7-0 SU and ATS run, winning by an average margin of 30.3 points per game, despite what looked like occasionally fairly competitive games.
MAC champion Central Michigan (11-2, 8-3-1 ATS) hopes that trend continues as the favorite. The 2009 Chippewas were dominant as evidenced by the 33.2-to-17.2 scoring differential. CMU is led by Dan LeFevour, the greatest player in MAC history. Find that last statement too strong, not when you consider these numbers - 12,510 passing career yards, 101 passing touchdowns, running for almost 3,000 yards (2,936) and personally crossing the goal line 46 times. Most importantly, Central Michigan has won the league title in three of the four seasons LeFevour has been on the Mt. Pleasant campus. How important was he to the program, in the prior seven seasons the Chippewas were 26-51.
Like CMU, Troy (Sun Belt champion) won their conference for the third time in four years and comes in with a 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS mark. The Trojans quarterback fortunes changed for the better last year, when transfer Levi Brown was called upon due to injury and ineffectiveness of the two signal callers ahead of him and all he has done is lead Troy to back to back outright conference crowns.
At first glance, Central Michigan falling from a four-point favorite to two at Sportbet.com doesnt seem to hold water. Among Troys losses is one at Bowling Green 31-14 in the season opener, whom the Chippewas whipped 24-10 as nine-point road favorites later in the season. By the same token can any MAC team be taken seriously in a bowl game having lost all nine matchups the last two years (0-8-1 ATS)? In search of a positive, when the MAC faces another non-BCS conference in a bowl game, the favorite is 13-1-1 ATS.
Central Michigan players are dealing with a coach leaving as Butch Jones continues taking Brian Kelly leftovers (Kelly was at CMU) and moved on to Cincinnati. That leaves Steve Stripling as the interim head coach and lame ducks are 1-2 this bowl season (though Florida State situation was different). Dont look for this to be a big deal, as this senior class went thru this as freshmen and they are moving on themselves and are going to be more interested in winning than worrying about a coach leaving. The Chips are 6-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons, winning by more than 10 points per game.
The Troy defensive front seven is going to have to be effective in containing LeFevour since its secondary is below average. The Trojans are athletic enough with DE Cameron Sheffield and LB Boris (wheres Natasha?) Lee to keep CMU quarterback from roaming around. Brown will have to outplay LeFevour and he should have time to pass since Central Michigan doesnt generate much of pass rush. Troy often feeds on momentum and is 8-0 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games.
The Trojans have played in three prior bowl games with 1-2 SU and ATS, including 3-0 going OVER the total. CMU is 1-4 all-time as a bowler and is 2-1 ATS.
With the total at 63 consider this, Troy is 9-1 OVER as an underdog and Central Michigan is 6-0 UNDER away from home after one or more consecutive straight up wins this season. ESPN has the coverage starting at 7 Eastern.