Good Day for the Books
By Micah Roberts
Week 10 of the NFL season turned out well for the Las Vegas sportsbooks, especially if being one of the local books that take in lots of parlay action. The sharps did well with a few games on straight bets, but a few weeks of unpredictable action has produced a rather indecisive betting pattern with the small money on parlays making it good business for the betting shops.
Of the 13 games on Sunday, the favorites went 4-9 with five dogs winning straight-up. In the game of the day between the Patriots and Colts, it was an oddsmaker’s wish come true with the favored team winning but not covering which eliminates much of the square action on the money line.
I’m still not sure what Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick was thinking by going for a fourth and 2 at their own 28 yard line with just over two-minutes remaining, leading in a 34-28 game. Based on all the boos everyone hears at their stadium when a coach punts in a conservative play call from anywhere, most fans were thinking, “this is my kind of coach,” at least until it failed.
Even though the Colts-Pats were the game of the day and had lots of volume on it, the action was split by the public with no presence of Sharp play making the game a win-win for the books as the final posted event on the schedule.
“The sharp money had a pretty good day, while the average Joe’s didn’t fare so well, “said Las Vegas Hilton Super Book Executive Director Jay Kornegay. “Overall it was a decent day for the house”
The biggest winner of the day for the books came as a surprise to many. You would think that with Steelers losing that the sportsbooks would have done well considering how everyone just saw them dismantle Denver on Monday night, but that wasn’t the case.
“The Bengals were the surprise flavor of the week, “Kornegay said, “The general public was all over the Bengals.”
The best decision of the day for the betting shops came in the Saints-Rams game where just about every parlay in the city had the Saints on it.
“Our best game of the day was the Rams covering despite getting some wise-guy action on them,” said Kornegay.
The Saints have now gone three straight games without covering after starting the season 6-0 ATS. Last week’s game with the Rams looked about as simple as it gets considering the 13.5-point spread was in the neighborhood of what it had been for the Saints with good teams like Atlanta and Carolina. Who knew that the Rams’ home crowd was so intimidating?
Another game the books did well with last week was the Chargers beating the Eagles 31-23 making it two straight wins over a stereotypical tough NFC East team.
“We did really well with the Chargers winning,” said Kornegay. “We had been bet on the Eagles a few times throughout the week leading up to Sunday.“
The early move on the Eagles came as somewhat of a surprise because of how poorly Philly did the last time traveling west when they lost to the Raiders, but it may have been more about the inconsistent nature of San Diego in recent years.
Jumbled NFL
Despite the dregs of the NFL lingering at the bottom with only one or two wins on the year, there are 22 teams with records of 4-5 or better that still have a legitimate shot at vying for the 12 playoff positions with seven weeks to go in the season. Even a team like 3-6 Tennessee stands out as a possibility because of their recent three game win streak
Another Cancer WR Infects Dallas
Three weeks ago Roy Williams made comments about how the No. 2 WR on the team was getting better passes from Tony Romo which is why his numbers aren’t as good as the phenom, Miles Austin.
Romo shrugged it off in the same manner he did last year when Terrell Owens quipped that TE Jason Witten and Romo were conspiring secret plays behind his back.
Since the comments, Romo has tried to get Williams into the game more and in the process has made them worse by not giving Austin as many looks. Two weeks ago at Philly, Austin only had one catch, a big one for the game winning score. Last week at Green Bay, Romo again went to Williams and failed miserably with a key drop and a fumble, yet Romo kept going to him and bypassing the playmaking Austin.
Despite the loss, Williams was happy to have his first 100 yard game in 25 games and scored in the final seconds of a 17-7 loss, the first loss in November given to Romo in 13 games. Austin only had four catches for 20 yards. When Dallas took off after being a mediocre 2-2, it was Austin’s big plays that led the way to four straight wins with him scoring in each. If Dallas wants to really contend, less-Williams and a reclassification of who is No. 2 on the team looks to be the move.
Cocky Jets?
Just wondering if Jets DB Kerry Rhodes has something to say this week as his 4-5 Jets roll into New England in the aftermath of losing to the Colts. The week of their first meeting in week three, there were a lot of jaws flapping from the Jets’ side to how they were going to do, and then they went out and beat the Pats. Somehow it seems like Belichick isn’t too happy right now and is looking to take it out on someone and the Jets should give plenty of ammunition for Tom Brady’s loaded gun.
Saturday Super-Busy in Las Vegas Books
The sharps did well at the Sports Books on Saturday faring well on both their early and late plays. Early last week they were on games like Mississippi, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Oregon State, Clemson, Nevada, Cal, and TCU.
On game day, they came with underdogs like Notre Dame and Indiana. Overall, the betting shops still fared well despite not doing well with the large straight bets. The sportsbook’s equalizer came with the public play on parlays mixed in with more events to wager on than usual.
“We grinded out a win Saturday,” said Kornegay.
“Saturday had to be our busiest day of the Football this season thus far. It was just non-stop all day long with a full schedule of college football games, college hoops getting into their schedule, a full NBA and NHL schedule, and then the big fight (Cotto-Pacquiao); it was a huge day of volume all around.“
Generally when a large favorite like Manny Pacquiao (-330) wins, it’s a great scenario because most of betting public like to play the underdog getting plus money, but that’s not the case when Pacquiao fights because of the large following he has and they don‘t care what the price is -- they just know Manny is going to win.
Most betting parlors reported a win on the fight that saw great action that was close to reminding many of big bouts from old matches in the history of Las Vegas. By sheer volume, the books were able to juice out a win. Pacquiao can definitely carry card like no one else and it would be fun to eventually see Floyd Mayweather and him get together.