Green Bay Packers Preview
By Bruce Marshall
The Gold Sheet
We can't remember the last time Greta Van Susteren became involved in an NFL debate. Until last July, that is, when Greta was suddenly in the middle of pro football's hottest controversy of the summer. With Keith Olbermann apparently either unavailable or simply not interested, Brett Favre chose Van Susteren's On the Record TV show to speak publicly for the first time about his latest (but, apparently, not his last) comeback from retirement with Green Bay. Greta probably never received better ratings in Wisconsin than the nights those two interviews aired last July. It turned out, however, to be only part of the ongoing saga involving Favre, the Packers, and Favre's heir apparent, Aaron Rodgers, who had been patiently waiting for his chance to guide the team almost as long as Conan O'Brien stood in the queue before finally replacing Jay Leno on the Tonight Show. Following Greta's interviews, the hoopla continued until Favre made a well-orchestrated arrival at training camp, where HC Mike McCarthy and GM Ted Thompson shut the door for good on Favre's return to Green Bay. The next chapter of the saga was the August trade of Favre to the Jets, though his shadow continued to loom large over McCarthy, Rodgers, and the rest of the Pack in what ultimately turned out to be a frustrating 6-10 season at Lambeau Field.
Not even Favre's staunchest supporters in Packer Nation, however, could blame much of Green Bay's precipitous fall from the 2007 NFC title game on Rodgers, who actually fared pretty well in his first run as the full-time starter. Indeed, Rodgers did what Favre couldn't do in his first two seasons as the top dog, throwing for more than 4000 yards, while being very efficient in tossing 28 TD passes and only 13 picks. Some did wonder, however, if Favre's absence hurt the Packers in the inordinate number of close losses they suffered (0-7 in games decided by four points or fewer). But anyone who watched Green Bay's games, or checks out the stats, knows there was a culprit far more responsible than Rodgers for last season's downturn.
In short, it was defense, or lack thereof, that wrecked the Pack. To that end, McCarthy, blaming the stop unit for that 7-game drop in the standings, went on an unprecedented purge of his staff that was the gridiron equivalent of Richard Nixon's infamous "Saturday Night Massacre" at the White House in 1973. McCarthy axed five defensive assistants, including d.c. Bob Sanders, and, if he had the chance, probably would have canned Archibald Cox and Elliot Richardson, too, had they been alive and part of last year's defensive braintrust. Veteran tactician Dom Capers, a former HC with the Panthers and Texans and a respected strategist, assumes d.c. duties for the fall. Capers will switch to the same 3-4 base he used in the '90s with the Steelers, but will also use other variations of the 3-4 and 4-3, depending upon the situation and personnel.
Capers would benefit from better luck on the injury front, which altered LY's dynamics in a negative way when DE Cullen Jenkins went down with a season-ending pectoral injury in the fourth week. Without Jenkins, the pass rush almost disappeared. Still, Capers has basically taken a weed-wacker to the stop unit, which suddenly has a few more things to worry about in the NFC North with new weapons such as Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford, and Percy Harvin now in the neighborhood (and who knows, maybe Favre as well). The draft brought first-round picks B.J. Raji (NT) and Clay Matthews (OLB), both expected to start. Aaron Kampman, who provided what little pass rush was left in '08 after Jenkins' injury, has been moved from DE to OLB. The likes of vet LBs A.J. Hawk & Nick Barnett are also learning new roles in Capers' 3-4. The new schemes also present challenges for the DBs, which could be an issue for aging CBs Al Harris and Charles Woodson, who have been at their best in bump-and-run, man-to-man styles. Now, they'll be expected to play less press coverage and more zone, which puts more emphasis on instincts and coverage ability than on merely knocking a wideout off his pins at the line of scrimmage.
With McCarthy concentrating most of his offseason efforts on bolstering the defense, the "O" will have much the same look as last season. Rodgers welcomes back a dynamic pair of WRs in Greg Jennings (86 catches LY) and Donald Driver (74; potential contract issue), both 1000-yard receivers in '08. RB Ryan Grant (1203 YR) remains productive, but to bolster Grant's 3.9 ypc, McCarthy is seeking more cohesion along a zone-blocking OL. Yet with three starters off surgery and RT Mark Tauscher still unsigned, it might be a while before the forward wall is able to mesh.
Bottom line...McCarthy's purge of his defensive staff, and subsequent hiring of Capers, ranks among the boldest (desperate?) coaching moves of the offseason. But such radical switches in philosophy usually take time to resonate, and Capers might not be able to recapture his old magic right off the bat. And if he can't, last year proved that no matter how impressive Rodgers' stats, the "O" won't get the Pack to the playoffs by itself.