Grey Cup Betting Preview and Pick
By Charles-André Marchand
Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Montreal Alouettes (-9.5, 55.5)
Somehow these two teams share some similarities, starting with the obvious unity that bonds the players in both locker room and the preoccupation with details that has been enforced by their respective coaching staffs.
Both these teams got to Calgary by the front door - having both won their regular season and playoff division titles. Everything seems to indicate we will have a wonderful football game, even if the Alouettes won easily in both regular-season matchups (43-10 in Regina, 34-25 in Montreal one month later).
But actually, if you consider the statistics it should be a one-way affair in favour of the Alouettes, a team that averaged 33.3 points per game this year, compared to the 28.6 points per game scored by the Riders.
Add to these numbers the fact that the Montreal defence gave up only 18 points per game compared to almost 27 by the Saskatchewan, So we shouldn’t be surprised that the opening line tagged the Als as 9.5-point favorites.
The Alouettes have the best QB in the CFL, Anthony Calvillo, who completed close to 72 percent of his passes in 2009. In comparison, his counter-part Darian Durant only completed around 60 percent of his passes. Both quarterbacks have reliable targets to throw at: Bagg, Fantuz, Clermont and Getzlaf for the Riders while Montreal can count on Watkins, Cahoon, Richardson, Bratton and Green.
Montreal has an advantage in the backfield where Avon Cobourne had another stellar year and two great games against the Riders with a combined 242 yards rushing. Suffering from a shoulder injury that kept him out of the lineup for a few games, Riders RB Wes Cates didn’t have the type of season he is capable of.
Once again, the defence could decide the outcome of this game. The Als secondary is much more solid than the Riders and the front seven is superior, although no one should underestimate a defence that aligns defensive ends as talented as John Chick and Stevie Baggs.
On special teams, the advantage goes to the Alouettes starting with kicker Damon Duval and star returner Larry Taylor. The Riders will have to beware of Taylor on punt and kickoff returns.
The crowd will heavily rally behind the Roughriders but it won’t be enough, The Montreal Alouettes will win their first Grey Cup since 2002 and will cover the spread.
Pick: Montreal -9.5
Last Week 2-0, season 44-31-1
SASKATCHEWAN (11 - 7 - 1) vs. MONTREAL (16 - 3)
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 55-34 ATS (+17.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 137-104 ATS (+22.6 Units) in all games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 137-104 ATS (+22.6 Units) in all lined games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 91-56 ATS (+29.4 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 47-26 ATS (+18.4 Units) when playing on a Sunday since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 125-94 ATS (+21.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 79-51 ATS (+22.9 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-2 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 3-3 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN vs. MONTREAL
Saskatchewan is 4-1-1 SU in its last 6 games
Saskatchewan is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Montreal
Montreal is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Saskatchewan
Montreal is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Saskatchewan
DUNKEL
Saskatchewan vs. Montreal
The Alouettes look to take advantage of a Saskatchewan team that is coming off a 27-17 win over Calgary, but is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games following a SU win. Montreal is the pick (-9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Alouettes favored by 16 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-9 1/2)
Game 241-242: Saskatchewan vs. Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 107.005; Montreal 123.745
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 16 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Montreal by 9 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-9 1/2); Under
2009 Grey Cup Preview
Montreal is by far the best team in CFL; they beat Saskatchewan twice this season, 43-10 in Regina in Week 3 (-4; outgained Riders 412-192 in sloppy contest where both sides lost four fumbles), 34-25 at home five weeks later (-12; Alouettes were +3 in turnovers, were outgained by 135 yards). Als won last three games overall by 35-25-36 points; their last five games all went over total- they're 7-2 vs spread in last nine games as a favorite. Riders are 4-1-1 in last six games, 7-3 vs spread as underdog this season. Saskatchewan played two great games at McMahon this yr, winning 24-23 in Week 5, then a 44-all tie in Week 16. Alouettes opened season in Calgary, whipping Stampeders 40-27, back in the summer.