Grey Cup Preview: Saskchewan vs. Montreal
The 98th Grey Cup - the Championship of the Canadian Football League – kicks off Sunday afternoon in Edmonton. Here’s a look at matchup:
History Says
The Saskatchewan Roughriders and the Montreal Alouettes meet in a rematch of a truly crazy Grey Cup played in Calgary last year. Saskatchewan kicked the winning field goal with no time remaining, but was called for too many men on the field, and then missed the second field goal wide to give Montreal a 1-point win. Ouch.
Montreal is no stranger to playing in the biggest game – the team has represented the pathetic Eastern Conference eight times in the last 11 years. Winning two Grey Cups in a row is a massive challenge, though - the last time it happened was when Doug Flutie led the Toronto Argonauts to titles ’96 and ‘97.
The last seven of those Grey Cup games have been started by QB Anthony Calvillo, a Utah State product who will likely pass Damon Allen, Brett Favre and Warren Moon to become the player with the most career passing yards in football history next season if he remains healthy and plays again. Calvillo has long been the king of Canadian football, but he’s 38 and has struggled with injuries.
He was absolutely brilliant in the semifinal win over Toronto, though. His backups aren’t likely to see any playing time but both will be familiar to college football fans – Florida alum Chris Leak and former Florida State starter Adrian McPherson.
The Alouettes finished 12-6 in the regular season but covered the spread in just eight of their 18 games. Two of their losses came in the last three games after they had secured their playoff position and were resting their aging lineup.
Saskatchewan has the most passionate fans in the league, but that support has not turned into overwhelming success – the Green Riders are trying to win just their fourth Grey Cup. They have been at or near the top of the Western Conference for several years now, though.
This year they started the season in dominant fashion, going 4-1 out of the gate. Four losses in a row in October dropped them to just 10-8, though. They won the Western Final in Calgary in arctic conditions, but it was one of the uglier games you’ll see - Calgary lost it more than Saskatchewan won it.
The Riders are led by Darian Durant, the North Carolina product who owns a boatload of career records for the Tar Heels. This is only his second full year as a starter, but he has a cannon for an arm and is a real danger on the ground too.
These two teams have met twice since last year’s Grey Cup, and have split two very close contests. Saskatchewan beat Montreal, 54-51, in a crazy shootout to kick off the new season, and Montreal bounced back to eke out a 30-26 win.
Weather will be a bit of a factor again in this game – it’s Canada in November, after all. It will be cold, but the field turf has been covered with an insulated tarp all week so traction should not be a serious issue.
Odds
The game opened with the Als favored by 6 points, but that quickly fell to 3.5. Action has been tilted toward Saskatchewan, but not heavily enough to move the line that much, so it seems like smart money likes the Roughriders. The total is set at 50.5, which is down from 54.5 where it opened.
Trends
The under is 7-1 in Saskatchewan’s last eight playoff games. Eight of Saskatchewan’s last 10 games in November have gone under.
Saskatchewan rises to the occasion - 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games against teams with winning records.
Montreal is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 in November including playoff games.
Saskatchewan lost the Grey Cup last year, but it covered as 9.5-point underdogs. The Riders went under the 55.5 point total by half a point.
2010 CFL Grey Cup Betting Preview
By: David Schwab
“Let’s do it again.” The teams for this year’s Grey Cup have been set and the Saskatchewan Roughriders have earned a chance to avenge last year’s last second loss to the Montreal Alouettes in this year’s CFL championship game.
This 98th edition of the CFL Grey Cup will be played at Commonwealth Stadium in Edmonton. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. (PT) on Sunday. The festivities will feature The Trews performing “O Canada” and legendary rockers Bachman Turner Overdrive as the halftime entertainment.
Last year’s Grey Cup set the perfect stage for this year’s contest. Saskatchewan has played the entire 2010 regular season with one simple goal in mind; a shot at redemption for last year's 28-27 loss to Montreal in a game the Roughriders had all but won.
A game winning 43-yard filed goal attempt by the Alouettes with no time left on the clock had just sailed wide, but a 10-yard penalty for too many men on the field gave them another chance from 33 yards out and this time out Als kicker Damon Duval did not miss.
The Roughriders earned this chance with a come-from-behind 20-16 win over Calgary in the West Division Final last Sunday. Saskatchewan closed as a seven-point road underdog and the total stayed 'under' the 55 ½-point line. Quarterback Darian Durant completed 20-of-39 attempts for 180 yards and two touchdowns and wide receiver Chris Getzlaf hauled in eight catches for 109 yards and a score to lead the way over the stunned Stampeders.
Montreal earned the chance to defend its title last Sunday as well with a resounding 48-17 win over upstart Toronto in the East Division Final. The Alouettes had no trouble covering as a 10-point home favorite and the total went well 'over' the 51-point line. All-star signal-caller Anthony Calvillo threw for 334 yards, including two touchdown strikes to Jamal Richardson and Avon Cobourne added 103 yards on the ground and a score to secure their third straight trip to the Grey Cup.
Sportsinteraction.com opened the Alouettes as a four-point favorite for this year's championship game and the 'over/under' line is set at 52 ½.
These two teams met twice during the regular season with Saskatchewan coming away with a thrilling 54-51 double-overtime win on opening day weekend and Montreal returning the favor with a hard-fought 30-26 win in Week 6.
The first time around, the Roughriders were a 3 ½-point home underdog and the total went way 'over' 54. The 105 points scored was actually the third most in CFL history. Trailing by 21 points in regulation, Durant completed the comeback with a game-winning three-yard pass to Weston Dressler in the second overtime period. He finished the day completing 29-of 44 attempts for 481 yards and five TD's. Dressler led all receivers with nine catches for 154 yards.
It was Calvillo's turn to shine in the second game as he threw for 252 yards and two TD's; completing 17-of-25 attempts. Richardson came up big for the Alouettes with seven receptions for 65 yards and one score. Montreal closed as a seven-point home favorite and the total stayed 'under' 60.
Saskatchewan comes into this game with a 12-8 record straight-up and went 10-10 against the spread. The Roughriders were 8-2 SU at home but just 5-5 ATS. They were 4-6 SU and 5-5 ATS on the road. The total has gone ‘over’ in six of their last eight games overall.
Montreal finished the year 13-6 SU but 9-10 ATS. The Alouettes were 8-2 SU at home and 6-4 ATS. They had a road record of 5-4 SU and 3-6 ATS. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of their last eight games.
Head-to-head, the Alouettes have won five of the last six games SU but the Roughriders have won the last four games ATS. The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of their last six games.
Most people wrote Saskatchewan off after it limped into the playoffs having lost four of its last five games of the regular season SU, however there is something to be said about peaking at the right time. The Roughriders know how to win close games and that is exactly what it will take to return the Grey Cup to Saskatchewan.
2010 Grey Cup Pick: Saskatchewan 34-31
SASKATCHEWAN (12 - 8) vs. MONTREAL (13 - 6)
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 60-34 ATS (+22.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 148-114 ATS (+22.6 Units) in all games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 148-114 ATS (+22.6 Units) in all lined games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) when playing on a Sunday since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 135-102 ATS (+22.8 Units) in games played on turf since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 85-53 ATS (+26.7 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-2 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 5-2 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN vs. MONTREAL
Saskatchewan is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 6 games
Montreal is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games
Montreal is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
Grey Cup Preview
Saskatchewan vs Montreal - Roughriders are in Grey Cup for third time in four years; they lost to Montreal in this game LY, only second win in last seven Grey Cups (all since 2000) for Alouettes. Teams split pair of games this year; Riders opened season with 54-51 OT win in Regina as 3-point home dog. Montreal (-6) won rematch 30-26 five weeks later. Saskatchewan's two playoff wins are by combined total of seven points; they didn't have first-round bye like Montreal did. Riders lost both trips to Edmonton this year; Montreal won 33-23 back in Week 2.