Group of Five Contenders
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
After the Power Five conferences, we have the Group of Five consisting of the AAC, Mountain West, C-USA, MAC and Sun Belt. These schools have one spot available in the marquee bowls on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, but it’s rare that one of these teams has a legitimate shot at getting to the College Football Playoff (and in the past, to the BCS Championship Game).
There are exceptions to this, however. When quarterback Kellen Moore had his dynamic four-year run under Chris Petersen at Boise State, there were several times when BSU might’ve received the nod to play for the national title if not for late-season losses.
In particular, there was the 2010 campaign. Boise State opened the season against Virginia Tech in Landover, Maryland, in what was undoubtedly a road game even though it wasn’t played in Blacksburg. The Broncos beat the Hokies, who would go on to win 10 straight games before reaching the 11-win mark with a 44-33 win over Florida State in the ACC Championship Game.
BSU would spank all of its opponents by double-digit margins, including another win over a Pac-12 school (37-24 win over Oregon State), going into a home game against Colin Kaepernick’s Nevada team that would eventually finish the year with a 13-1 record. The Broncos had a chance to win outright late in regulation, only for their kicker to miss a short field goal. Then after the Wolf Pack scored a field goal in overtime, BSU’s kicker once again missed a chip shot to force a second extra session. Therefore, Nevada won a 34-31 decision.
If BSU wins that game, would it have made the BCS Championship Game? You could’ve made a great argument for it. The Broncos would have been undefeated just like Auburn and Oregon, who did square off for the title. Why, you ask?
Well, Boise State had played the Ducks in the two previous seasons. And the Broncos absolutely dominated them in each contest. In 2009 at Oregon, Boise State raced out to a 37-13 lead by late in the third quarter and held on for a 37-32 victory. This was a misleading final score, however, just like it was in 2010 on the smurf turf.
In Chip Kelly’s debut as head coach in 2010, Boise State won a 19-8 decision but the game wasn’t even competitive. BSU enjoyed an advantage in total yards by a 361-152 margin and produced 22 first downs compared to six for the Ducks, who didn’t get on the scoreboard until there was 4:21 remaining in the fourth quarter. The only reason the Broncos didn’t score more is because they failed to convert on a pair of fourth-and-short plays and coughed up three fumbles.
At this time last summer, I was hyping Houston’s legit chances to make the CFP. Not only was the AAC going to be a strong league with quality teams like Navy, South Florida and Memphis, the Cougars had non-conference opportunities against highly-ranked teams like Oklahoma and Louisville. Furthermore, they were going to be playing Navy and Memphis on the road, making those potential victories even more impressive to the Selection Committee, and the games against OU and U of L were more winnable at home (the OU game was in Houston, albeit at NRG Stadium).
As it turned out, Houston faced OU and U of L when both were ranked third in the nation. In other words, if the Cougars had stayed undefeated, they would’ve undoubtedly been in the CFP. However, UH lost at Navy (when the Cougars were ranked sixth) and would lose two other AAC games.
I’m not sure that the schedule works for any Group of Five school to get to the CFP this year. Unlike last season when it had a home game against FSU, South Florida’s top non-conference games are at UConn and at home vs. Illinois. I mention USF because I feel it has the best chance of going unbeaten, but wins over the Huskies and Illini aren’t going to impress anyone.
Let’s rank and discuss my top-seven Group of Five teams and mention a few other schools and players to watch.
Group of Five Top 7
1) South Florida: Charlie Strong takes over at USF after Willie Taggart accepting the head-coaching job at Oregon. Strong, who had an outstanding run at Louisville before a three-year stretch at Texas didn’t work out, walks into a great situation. Although the school’s all-time leading rusher Marlon Mack turned pro a year early, the Bulls still bring back 16 of 22 starters (7 offense, 9 defense) from an 11-2 squad. Senior quarterback Quinton Flowers is the best of the bunch. In fact, if he duplicates his rushing numbers from 2016, he’ll surpass Mack’s record for career rushing yards. Flowers is already third on the all-time list. He ran for 1,530 yards and 15 touchdowns while averaging 7.7 yards per carry last year. Flowers also connected on 62.5 percent of his passes for 2,812 yards with a 24/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Barring a rash of injuries, USF will most likely be favored in every game with one potential exception – the regular-season finale at UCF. The Bulls get their toughest games – vs. Illinois, Houston, Cincinnati and Tulsa – at home and the Illini and Owls have to come to Tampa on a short week of preparation. Plus, Memphis is not on the regular-season slate. Finally, we should note the return of All-American candidate Auggie Sanchez, the senior LB who recorded 120 tackles, six sacks and one interception in ’16.
2) Houston: Major Applewhite takes over for Tom Herman after a two-year tenure that consisted of 22 wins compared to merely five defeats. Six wins came over ranked teams, including three scalps of top-10 teams including FSU, Oklahoma and Louisville. Houston brings back 15 starters and lost a total of only 15 lettermen from the ’16 club that finished 9-4. Star QB Greg Ward Jr. is gone, but his replacement is former Texas A&M starter and five-star recruit Kyle Allen, who sat out last year after transferring. The Cougars have one of the nation’s top wideouts in senior Linell Bonner, who had 98 receptions for 1,118 yards last year. Sophomore DT Ed Oliver might be THE BEST player in America, and that’s the furthest thing from a stretch. As a true freshman after Herman kept the hometown five-star recruit in H-Town, all he did was produce 66 tackles, 22.5 tackles for loss, five sacks, three forced fumbles, seven QB hurries and nine passes broken up. The non-conference schedule isn’t as formidable this year, but UH does play at Arizona and hosts Texas Tech. The Cougars get both Navy and Memphis at home, and both foes have to come to Houston on a short week of preparation.
3) Boise State: Boise State finished 10-3 last season, losing a pair of heartbreakers at Wyoming (30-28) and at Air Force (27-20) before getting thumped by Baylor at The Cactus Bowl. BSU returns only five starters on offense and four on defense, but junior QB Brett Rypien is back and looking to earn first-team All-MWC honors for a third consecutive season. He has a 44/16 career TD-INT ratio and has WR Cedrick Wilson back in the mix. Wilson had 56 catches for 1,129 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 20.2 yards per catch in ’16. Junior DT David Moa is a force up front, registering 8.5 sacks as a sophomore. The Broncos play at Washington State in Week 2, host Virginia in Week 4 on a Friday night (when BSU plays at home vs. New Mexico the prior Thursday and UVA hosts UConn the previous Saturday) and travels to BYU with two weeks to prepare.
4) Appalachian State: Georgia better be on upset alert in Week 1! Let’s not pull any punches here, folks: Tennessee was lucky as hell just to force overtime against ASU at home in front of more than 100,000 of its own fans in last year’s season opener, much less get the win (on a recovered fumble in the end zone after Josh Dobbs got assaulted in mid-air as he lunged for the end zone) in the extra session. Scott Satterfield’s team finished 10-3, losing 28-24 at Troy (which also finished 10-3 and nearly won at Clemson) and falling at home to Miami. The Sun Belt’s 2016 Offensive Player of the Year, RB Jalin Moore (5.9 YPC), returns after rushing for 1,402 yards and 10 TDs. The Mountaineers bring back 14 starters, seven apiece on each side of the ball, including their veteran signal caller. Senior QB Taylor Lamb is third in school history in passing yards (7,049) already. He has a 63/26 career TD-INT ratio. Lamb will throw and Moore will run behind a veteran offensive line (76 career starts) that has a pair of offensive guards who are future pros (Colby Gossett and Beau Nunn). App State gets Wake Forest at home in a second shot at a Power Five foe. The Mountaineers don’t have to play the second and third-best teams in the Sun Belt (Troy and Arkansas State), and they get Ga. Southern at home on a Thursday night when the Eagles will be playing a third road game in 19 days.
5) Western Kentucky: Mike Sanford Jr., the son of the former UNLV head coach, takes over for Jeff Brohm, who parlayed a 23-5 record over the last two seasons to land the Purdue job. Sanford was the offensive coordinator at Notre Dame the last two years after calling plays at Boise State in ’14. The Hilltoppers lost their top three tacklers, workhorse RB (Anthony Wales: 1,621 rushing yards, 27 TDs & 6.8 YPC), head coach and top two WRs. On the bright side, senior QB Mike White is back after throwing for 4,363 yards with a 37/7 TD-INT ratio. Only 10 of 22 starters are back, but the secondary is a senior-laden group and there are capable RBs (Quinton Baker and Marquez Trigg) poised to replace Wales. The non-conference slate includes games at Illinois and at Vanderbilt. Remember, this team went 11-3 last year, won the C-USA title game by two TDs over La. Tech, won eight games by 14 points or more, won nine games by at least 20 points and thumped Memphis 51-31 at the Boca Raton Bowl. The losses came at Alabama (38-10), vs. Vanderbilt (31-30 in overtime) and at La. Tech (55-52).
6) Memphis: Memphis will have one of the nation’s most prolific offenses, returning nine starters from a unit that averaged 38.8 points per game. Senior QB Riley Ferguson threw for 3,698 yards with a 32/10 TD-INT ratio last season. He has most of his WRs back, including his favorite target Anthony Miller, who had 95 receptions for 1,434 yards and 14 TDs in ’16. The top four rushers are also back in the mix. Six starters, including three of the top four tacklers, return on the defensive side. The Tigers went 8-5 last year, losing on the road to a pair of ranked teams (Ole Miss and Navy). They beat 18th-ranked Houston as 6.5-point home underdogs.
7) San Diego State: Rocky Long’s program has won 11 games in back-to-back campaigns. The Aztecs won the MWC Championship Game at Wyoming last season. They also dusted Houston by a 34-10 count at the Las Vegas Bowl. San Diego State returns five starters on offense and six on a defense that should be the best in the MWC. Although the NCAA’s all-time leading rusher (Donnell Pumphrey) has departed, SDS will be fine at RB with the return of Rashaad Penny, who ran for 1,018 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 7.5 YPC in ’16. RB Juwan Washington (8.0 YPC) is also back after rushing for six TDs last year. QB Christian Chapman (20/6 TD-INT) has his top two throwing targets returning and the Aztecs added depth at QB with Chris Laviano, a grad transfer from Rutgers. The non-conference schedule includes a Week 2 trip to Arizona State and a Week 3 home game vs. Stanford. Boise State has to come to Qualcomm Stadium, while Colorado State is absent from the schedule.
Best of the Rest Group of Five Teams: Troy, Western Michigan, Toledo and Navy.
Next Tier: Colorado State, Tulsa, Miami (OH.), La. Tech, Middle Tennessee and Arkansas State.
Best of the Rest Group of Five Players: Troy QB Brandon Silvers, Hawaii LB Jahlani Tavai, Toledo QB Logan Woodside, Wyoming QB Josh Allen, SMU WR Courtland Sutton, Western Michigan RB Jarvion Franklin, Central Michigan CB Amari Coleman, Middle Tennessee QB Brent Stockstill, Idaho QB Matt Linehan, La. Tech DE Jaylon Ferguson, UTEP OG Will Hernandez, Middle Tennessee WR Richie James, Toledo WR Cody Thompson, Western Michigan OT Chukwuma Okorafor, Wyoming FS Andrew Wingard, UConn FS Jamar Summers, Colorado State WR Michael Gallup, UNLV WR Devonte Boyd and Miami (OH.) QB Gus Ragland.