Hall of Fame Game Odds and Picks
By SPORTSBETTING.COM
Bet on the 2009 Hall of Fame Game
Time to raise the curtain on the 2009 NFL season, as it all gets going this weekend in Canton, Ohio with the Hall-of-Fame game.
The Hall-of-Fame game odds have been listed for a while now. The Tennessee Titans are 3-point favorites over the Buffalo Bills, with a Total set at 31. The number has actually moved a little at a number of online sportsbooks, with some of them now showing -2.5.
SPORTSBETTING.com reported fairly balanced action over the first few days the line was posted, but Bills money has been showing up lately. Buffalo has 68% of all the action wagered on this one as we head into the weekend.
I think the sports betting public has this one right with the Bills action. I haven’t made a play on the side yet, and actually I rarely do in the Hall-of-Fame game, but I’m definitely leaning to the underdog. I think the Bills will be motivated to pick up a win, and when handicapping preseason NFL games, motivation is a huge factor.
Coach Dick Jauron is on the hot seat and while yes, this is just an exhibition game, believe me, Jauron and the team do not want to look bad. It will start the sports talk show phone lines buzzing early and have the print reporters already taking shots.
The same can’t be said for Jeff Fisher in Tennessee. He’s one of the most secure coaches in the game, coming off a very successful season. Add in the fact Fisher has never been much concerned with preseason wins (he has a sub-.500 career ATS mark in the preseason). There is absolutely no pressure on him, his staff or players if they drop their preseason games.
I’m looking at a Buffalo team that tries to win this game and again, in preseason, if a team tries to win a game they usually do.
Preseason Pick
Let’s look at that Total. On only four other occasions has there been a Total set lower than 31. Take note that in each of those four games they all went “Over” the posted number. I like this one to go “Over” as well. Looking at each teams past preseason scoring averages over the years (both what they score and what they give up), the basic numbers come in around the 37 point-mark. But I also think we’ll see these offenses, most notably the second and third string offenses, be able to put up a few points, enough for us to cash on this “Over” play.
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Tennessee vs. Buffalo HOF Match-up
By TheGoldSheet.com
TENNESSEE TITANS - Head Coach: Jeff Fisher (15th Year)
Tennessee was among the surprise teams in 2009, topping the NFL with its 13-3 record (12-4 vs. the spread!) despite allowing Indianapolis a 23-0 walkover in the Titans’ meaningless regular-season finale. After their bye week, however, Tennessee’s luck ran out in the Division Round of the playoffs vs. Baltimore when star rookie RB Chris Johnson (1228 YR, 4.9 ypc) suffered a sprained ankle near halftime. Moreover, the Titans (+14 in turnovers in the regular season) committed 12 penalties and three giveaways in a tense 13-10 loss, the worst turnover being a TE Alge Crumpler fumble in the fourth quarter near the Baltimore goal trailing 10-7. Adding salt to their wounds was a key pass completion to set up the winning Raven field goal on a snap that was initialized after the play clock had expired and should have been penalized, but went unnoticed. The NFL’s winningest team of 2008 went down, and the age-old lesson was taught again—victory is fleeting.
Now the question is being asked, “Was the 2008 Tennessee season a fluke?” We think not. In his 15th year and the dean of NFL coaches, Jeff Fisher operates in relative obscurity, outside of the top media markets. But he has built and sustained a high-quality NFL program without the benefit of the big-market money pulled in by the likes of the Giants, Cowboys, and Redskins. This year, for example, he lost one of the top defensive linemen in the league, Albert Haynesworth, to the megabucks of Dan Snyder in D.C. But, as usual, Fisher will somehow make due with his lesser-known group of high-quality performers.
At QB, it looks as if 2006 Offensive Rookie of the Year Vince Young is going to have to wait at least one more year before winning back the job that he thinks should be his. Thirty-six-year-old Kerry Collins (58.3%, 12 TDs, but only 7 ints. in 2008) was inked to a new two-year deal in the offseason, $8.5 million guaranteed. The athletic Young, still cursed with a low, unorthodox delivery, essentially lost his starting gig in last year’s season opener, first pouting when booed after throwing his second interception of the game, then, reluctant to re-enter, suffering a sprained knee that sidelined him several weeks. Careful Kerry took over, executing the Titans’ ball-control gameplans and minimizing mistakes.
The 26-year-old Young has since expressed his displeasure, but is working to get his job back, taking are of his “responsibilities.” To that end, Young has rarely missed a day of offseason workouts with his teammates, a change from last year when the QB was commuting to Texas to finish work on his degree at a time when incoming offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger was installing the Titans’ new offense.
This year, blessed with improved receivers, Heimerdinger is under instructions to work more on stretching defenses that were ganging up on Tennessee’s seventh-rated rushing attack. Fifth-year WR Nate Washington (career mark of 16.4 yards per reception) has been signed from Pittsburgh, and 6-4, 215 Rutgers WR Kenny Britt was chosen with the Titans’ No. 1 draft selection. Third-round pick TE Jared Cook—who trained under Steve Spurrier at South Carolina—is also being split out in some formations. In 2008, the team’s top two receivers were TE Bo Scaife (58 recs.) & RB Chris Johnson (43), while top WRs Brandon Jones and Justin Gage had only 41 and 34 recs., respectively—way below NFL standards these days.
If Heimerdinger finds ways to stress defenses vertically, the Titan ground game should be virtually impossible to stop. Johnson, arguably the fastest RB in the league (4.24 speed) and author 21 plays of 15 yards or more last year, wants to lead the league in rushing and win the MVP. He might accomplish the second, but not the first while dividing the pounding with LenDale White (773 YR) and, perhaps, Michigan State rookie Javon Ringer. The OL allowed only 12 sacks LY, and Fisher loves his big, 6-7 maulers Michael Roos & David Stewart at T, while 16-year vet Kevin Mawae is a great leader up front.
The defense returns every starter other than the departed Haynesworth, and the two-deep DL rotation still includes six players who had 3½ to 7 sacks each. The LB trio of Keith Bulluck, Stephen Tulloch & David Thornton is about as consistent as can be. S Michael Griffin (7), CB Courtland Finnegan (5) and S Chris Hope (4) helped Tennessee finish sixth in interceptions. Draftees DT Sen’Derrick Marks (second round), LB Gerald McRath (fourth), and CBs Ryan Mouton (third) & Jason McCourty (sixth) are likely the next group of youngsters to excel in obscurity in Music City.
Bottom Line...With any significant improvement in its aerial game, Tenn. seems ready to challenge for the AFC Super Bowl berth.
PRESEASON NOTES: Look for lots of Vince Young, and, with impressive depth TY, Jeff Fisher (10-2 as a dog the L9Ys) might easily return to his former winning ways in the preseason. The restive Young is eager to increase the pressure on Collins.
BUFFALO BILLS - Head Coach: Dick Jauron (4th Year)
The Bills seem to be fighting an uphill battle, not only to keep their NFL franchise alive in western New York, but also to get back in the playoffs. Buffalo has gone 7-9 three straight seasons under Dick Jauron and has no playoff appearances since the so-called “Music City Miracle” game in 1999 under Wade Phillips, when Tennessee won 22-16 on a lateral pass that most in Buffalo still believe was forward. Whatever.
The franchise, never one of the wealthiest, was allowed a little chest thumping last January when 90-yearold owner Ralph Wilson and DE Bruce Smith were elected to the NFL Hall of Fame. But, just to show how things have gone for the Bills lately, Smith was later arrested on a DUI charge in May. The team is trying to mine its Canadian market by playing one regular-season game a year and selected preseason games north of the border in more-populous Toronto through 2012. The franchise will be open for bidding upon the passing of Wilson, who will not hand off the team to heirs. And many speculate that the offseason signing of controversial WR Terrell Owens was done primarily to stimulate fan interest, which has waned as the team’s playoff appearances have diminished. Many are wondering, however, whether the addition of a character such as T.O. (who once said “I love me some me.”) is terribly out of place on this once-proud team.
Owens got the ball rolling in that regard shortly after being released by Dallas and signed by Buffalo for one year for $6.5 million, saying he was “leaving America’s team to come to North America’s team.” Most agree that the 34-year-old WR has lost at least a half-step on the field, and he is making the transition to Buffalo with a camera crew in tow, shooting a reality TV show for a VH-1 production to be seen this summer, co-starring friends and publicists Monique Jackson and Kita Willliams as Owens “re-examines his personal life.” So, get ready for “T.O. Gets the Keys to the City,” “T.O. Reports to Minicamp,” “T.O. Twitters,” “T.O. Dissed While House Hunting,” etc. Already it seems like too much T.O.
However, don’t be distracted from the fact that the jobs of Jauron and his staff are very much on the lineif they can’t coax more out of their players. Third-year QB Trent Edwards (12-11 as a starter in two seasons; 65.5% LY, but only 11 TDs) has demonstrated lots of promise, but is not the strongest QB physically. Speculation is rife that the usually-cautious Jauron—now that he has the muscular Owens to pair with fleet WR Lee Evans—is developing a fast-paced, no-huddle scheme around heady Stanford grad Edwards, who was once heartily endorsed by none other than Bill Walsh. After a 5-1 start last year, the Bills’ passing game stalled when defenses focused their attention on Evans, limiting him to three TD catches for the season and Buffalo to 18 ppg, with only two wins in the team’s last ten games.
However, the Bills have a history of success with the no-huddle attack going back to the glory days of Jim Kelly. With WRs Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish sometimes joining the formations, and with TE Shawn Nelson (once a WR) the team’s No. 4 pick, Jauron has given offensive coordinator (and former Stanford QB) Turk Schonert permission to open the throttle. Backup RB Fred Jackson (due to start the first three games because of the suspension of Marshawn Lynch; misdemeanor gun charge) has also been training as a slot receiver (à la Thurman Thomas?).
The biggest concern on offense is a nearly completely retooled line that might end up with draftees Eric Wood (first round, Louisville) and Andy Levitre (second round, Oregon State) at the guards. 6-8, 366 Langston Walker is being asked to move from RT to the crucial LT spot, with 6-7, 315 G Brad Butler being moved out to RT. Those are some not-so-insignificant changes up front. The Buffalo defense is desperately seeking impact plays after collecting only 24 sacks and 10 ints. in 2008. The Bills were pleased last year with big DT Marcus Stroud (acquired from Jacksonville), signing him to a new two-year extension. However, DE Aaron Schobel (32 in Sept.) has battled injuries and had only one sack LY. DE Chris Kelsay has only 4½ sacks the L2Ys. Thus, Buffalo used its top draft pick on quick but inconsistent DE Aaron Maybin of Penn State (12 sacks LY). Safety Ko Simpson has collected only 2 ints. in his 3 years, so the Bills nabbed CB Jairus Byrd of Oregon in the second round and will try to employ his quickness at safety. Same idea regarding fifth-round pick Nic Harris, the 230-pound safety from Oklahoma who will be moved up to become a speedy OLB. The “rocks” of the defense are Stroud, LBs Kawika Mitchell & Paul Posluszny, and CBs Terrence McGee & Leodis McKelvin.
Bottom Line...Just getting ahead in their division, never mind the conference, has been an issue in Buffalo this decade; in the last nine years, the Bills are 2-16 SU (5-13 vs. the spread) against New England. Will the potentially-disruptive T.O. get them over the hump? Very unlikely.
PRESEASON NOTES: Under Jauron, the Bills are 0-5 vs. the spread at home, 0-5 as a favorite, but 6-0 as a visitor, and 7-0 as a dog!!!
Hall of Fame Game Preview
By SportsPic
Believe it or not, it's the beginning of another football season as the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans square off Sunday at 08:00 EST in the Hall of Fame game from Canton Ohio. Bills off an unsuccessful season that saw the squad open 5-1 (4-2 ATS) before collapsing 2-6 (2-6 ATS) down the stretch should be hungry to get that bad taste out of their mouths. Bills coach Dick Jauron said his starters will likely play a couple of series in the team's first tune-up. Still, Bills a near perfect 11-1 ATS the past twelve as preseason dogs including a perfect 5-0 ATS in the first dress rehearsal of the season are interesting prospects. Meanwhile, Jeff Fisher's troops off a successful 13-3 (12-4 ATS) campaign before bowing out to the Raven in post season have been solid in preseason. Titans under Jeff Fisher are 23-13 (20-16 ATS) during practice season but it is well to note the past four season the squad is only 6-10 against the oddsmaker including 1-3 ATS opening practice season. Like Buffalo, Titans are not expected to give starters much action. Note: Titans have had the upper hand in head-head play of late winning the past three preseason meetings (2-1 ATS) and the last two regular season encounters (1-1 ATS). Betting on the NFL in August is a completely different exercise than betting on the same sport a month later.
I'll contribute. I bought and gave out Bills +3 and over 31.
Preseason's a crap shoot, given, but avg PF and PA stuff I put together for both says over (notes are in my office or I'd share them here) and Bills is a pre-season situation that has made a few bucks.
Best advice I can give is this though - bet for fun.
Yes, it's been a long time since we could bet on an NFL game, but don't be over anxious and go crazy. It's early. And it's pre-season.
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans
By VICTOR RYAN
Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans (-3, 31)
Who's in, who's out
As is customary of the first preseason game, the starters are expected to play no more than two series for both teams minus a couple of exceptions.
Bills head coach Dick Jauron said this week that all four quarterbacks on the roster are expected to play and that particular focus will be placed on the team’s revamped offensive line.
All five of the Bills’ projected starting O-linemen will be playing different positions this season, mostly as a result of the loss of Pro Bowl tackle Jason Peters in the offseason. That includes first and second round picks Eric Wood and Andy Levitre.
Jauron said Wood and Levitre will play extensively Sunday, while one starter, tackle Brad Butler, will not dress.
Running back Marshawn Lynch, who has suspended for the first three games of the regular season because of off-the-field conduct, will not play. Fred Jackson and Dominic Rhodes are expected to pick up the slack.
Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher called it “an honor” to be playing in the Hall of Fame Game and added “we’ll clearly be competitive throughout the game.”
Fisher has played it close to the vest this week with regard to playing time. Don’t forget that the Titans didn’t open their training camp until July 31 while Buffalo reported a full week earlier.
Kerry Collins is expected to start at quarterback and speculation out of Tennessee is that backup Vince Young will start the second half and play the entire third quarter, though it was not confirmed by Fisher.
Wide receiver Kenny Britt, the Titans’ first-round pick out of Rutgers, has a sore hamstring and will not play.
The Titans are also banged up on the offensive and defensive fronts. Defensive tackles Spencer Johnson and John McCargo, who are competing to replace All-Pro Albert Haynesworth, both had to leave practice Friday and it will be a game-time decision.
Coming and Going
The hype this week has surrounded the Buffalo debut of wide receiver Terrell Owens. The Pro Bowler adds to an already solid cast of receivers in Buffalo that features Lee Evans, Roscoe Parish and Josh Reed. All three are expected to play a significant role in the Bills’ newly-installed no-huddle offense.
The Titans’ most significant offseason acquisition was receiver Nate Washington from the Steelers. Washington caught 40 balls for 631 yards and three touchdowns as Pittsburgh’s primary slot receiver last season. Tennessee hopes he can provide a much-needed downfield threat.
Line Movement
The Titans opened as 3-point favorites with the total set around 31, but that’s changed slightly at some books. Action on the Bills and the over has resulted in some shops pushing the line to Tennessee -2.5 with the over/under number a half point higher at 31.5.
Trends
The Titans are 27-25 against the spread in the preseason under Fisher’s guidance. The over is 28-23-1 in August games coached by Fisher. Jauron, entering his fourth season as the Bills’ head man, is 7-5 ATS in the preseason. The over has gone just 4-8 during that time.
In the last 10 Hall of Fame games the over/under is 5-5.
Weather
The forecast calls for a high of 91 degrees in Canton with gusty winds.
Buffalo (0-0) vs. Tennessee (0-0)
(at Canton, Ohio)
The 2009 NFL preseason kicks off in Canton, Ohio, as Bills battle the Titans in the annual Hall of Fame Game.
Buffalo went 2-2 straight-up (SU) and 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in the 2008 preseason. The Bills have split their four preseason contests each of the last two summers and three times in the last four years. Under coach Dick Jauron, Buffalo is 5-7 SU and 7-5 ATS, including 3-0 ATS (1-2 SU) in preseason openers.
Tennessee won three of its four exhibition contests for the second straight year in 2008, but went just 1-3 ATS. In fact, Jeff Fisher’s squad has gone 1-3 ATS three times in the last four summers. On the bright side, the Titans have won three consecutive preseason openers (2-1 ATS).
Jauron said all of his starters will see some action today, including QB Trent Edwards, but only for a couple of series. Edwards would be followed by backup Ryan Fitzpatrick, Gibran Hamdan and rookie Matt Baker.
Fisher hinted at a similar game plan for his starters. Quarterback Kerry Collins is expected to play a few series with Vince Young (29-of-64 for 290 yards in the preseason last year) taking over and playing into the third quarter. Young will most likely be followed by Patrick Ramsey with a possibility that Alex Mortensen might see some action.
The Bills have been a moneymaker as a preseason underdog in recent years, going 10-1-1 ATS since 2004, including 8-0 ATS when catching points over the past four summers.
The Redskins crushed the Colts 30-16 as a 4½-point underdog in last year’s Hall of Fame Game, making the underdog 2-1-1 ATS the last four years in this contest.
The “over” is 6-3 in the Titan’s last nine preseason games, but the under is 7-2 in Buffalo’s last nine exhibition battles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO
Gametimepicks.com
SUNDAY, AUG. 9 (HALL OF FAME GAME)
5:00 PM BUFFALO AT TENNESSEE-1.5 31.5
I played Tennessee-2.5 and over 31. Tennessee will wear no. 9 , and have something to play for. Both offenses were stagnent at times last year and my guess is they will work more on the offensive side in this game.
Injuries: Receiver/return man Mark Jones (hamstring), defensive end Jacob Ford (hamstring), linebacker Colin Allred (ankle), linebacker Josh Stamer (soreness), linebacker Stephen Tulloch (rest) and tight end Alge Crumpler (rest) did not practice Friday.
Playing time: Fisher said the starters, including quarterback Kerry Collins, should play a few series in the first quarter against the Bills.
As for the other quarterbacks: Vince Young will be next and play into the third quarter, followed by Patrick Ramsey. Alex Mortensen could get some mop-up duty.
Buffalo-Head coach Dick Jauron said the starters will get at least a couple of series, but added their playing time will depend on how the game goes.Up front, this will be the first game for an offensive line that has five players at new positions. Butler won't play because of a back injury but rookie guards Eric Wood and Andy Levitre are expected to stay on the field once the other starters leave.
Also, look for the Bills to unveil their no-huddle offense tonight. The Bills say the no-huddle is just one aspect of the attack, but considering the offense hasn't called a play from a huddle this summer one would have to assume the team will continue to work on it tonight
That fake punt was dope