Hall of Fame Game Outlook
By Bodog
You’ve been waiting patiently for six months. Now you get your reward: a real, bona fide NFL game with an actual football betting line. The 2010 Hall of Fame Game is coming up this Sunday in Canton, Ohio. It’s the first game of the NFL exhibition season, and it’s a special occasion, bookending Saturday’s induction of seven deserving players into the Hall. Here are this year’s inductees in alphabetical order:
Russ Grimm, OG; Washington Redskins (1981-91)
Rickey Jackson, LB; New Orleans Saints (1981-93), San Francisco 49ers (1994-95)
Dick LeBeau, CB; Detroit Lions (1959-72)
Floyd Little, RB; Denver Broncos (1967-75)
John Randle, DT; Minnesota Vikings (1990-2000), Seattle Seahawks (2001-03)
Jerry Rice, WR; San Francisco 49ers (1985-2000), Oakland Raiders (2001-04), Seattle Seahawks (2004)
Emmitt Smith, RB; Dallas Cowboys (1990-2002); Arizona Cardinals (2003-04)
Rice and Smith are the marquee names here, entering the Hall in their first year of eligibility. But LeBeau and Little deserve extra attention as senior committee nominees; Little is credited for keeping the Broncos franchise viable during the last years of the AFL, and LeBeau was responsible for inventing the zone blitz as defensive co-ordinator of the Cincinnati Bengals.
LeBeau has gone on to win a pair of Super Bowls as defensive co-ordinator of the Pittsburgh Steelers. He and Smith should both have some extra warm and fuzzy feelings when the Bengals play the Dallas Cowboys at the Hall of Fame Game. NFL odds on this matchup are pending as we go to press; the over/under for regular season victories points toward a better year for Dallas, where the OVER is favored at –125 on a total of 10 wins. Cincinnati is staring at a total of eight wins with the OVER at –140.
All well and good, but this is the exhibition season, and a different betting strategy is required in August. This is actually the best time of year for sharps (including forward-thinking novice bettors) to make a buck. Markets are softer, betting lines are easier to exploit, and the research you do for the preseason will give you a leg up on the betting public come September.
This being the start of the exhibition season, you won’t be seeing the first-string players very much on Sunday. Quarterbacks Carson Palmer (21 TDs, 13 INTs, 83.6 passer rating last year) and Tony Romo (26 TDs, nine INTs, 97.6 passer rating) will likely get in just a series or two. The most important players on the field for handicapping purposes are the back-up QBs. With that in mind, pay close attention to the depth charts – we’ll get you started with the quarterbacks.
Cincinnati Bengals
No. 2: J.T. O’Sullivan (three TDs, zero INTs, 125.8 passer rating in the 2009 preseason)
No. 3: Jordan Palmer (three TDs, three INTs, 70.9 passer rating)
Dallas Cowboys
No. 2: Jon Kitna (two TDs, two INTs, 84.3 passer rating)
No. 3: Stephen McGee (one TD, zero INTs, 98.2 passer rating)
No. 4: Matt Nichols (rookie from Eastern Washington)
Both teams are relatively well stocked in the reserve QB department. O’Sullivan and especially Kitna are proven veterans, but Dallas is expected to give McGee extra burn during the preseason to see if he has what it takes to possibly be Romo’s replacement somewhere down the road. McGee was drafted out of Texas A&M in the fourth round last year after putting up great numbers at the combine. The concern with McGee is that he played in an option offense under Dennis Franchione for three years, then missed most of his senior campaign with shoulder injuries, limiting his exposure to Mike Sherman’s pro-style offense. Even so, McGee is a considerably better prospect than Jordan Palmer and has plenty of motivation to perform on Sunday.
Once you’ve got a fix on the depth players, it’s vital to know how the coaches like to approach the offseason. Player development is paramount, but winning is still important for some coaches, especially at home. Sunday is a neutral-site game, although Cincinnati is playing in its home state. The Bengals have been a saw-off at the pay window at 2-2 ATS in each of the past three years under coach Marvin Lewis. The Cowboys are 5-7 ATS under Wade Phillips in the same span and 1-5 ATS on the road.
One last tidbit to get you on your way: Although scores in Week 1 of the preseason have averaged out at 34.0 points, the Hall of Fame Game has produced an average score of 38.4 points – with a much smaller sample size, of course. The OVER cashed in at Fawcett Stadium in both 2008 and 2009. Make sure to check back for fresh totals at Bodog Sports as the weekend approaches.