Handicappers share favorite NCAAF season win total Over plays
By Covers.com
The countdown clock is slowly ticking toward the kickoff for college football. Sportsbooks online and in Nevada are cooking up their sharpest futures odds on things like BCS title odds, Games of the Year and season win totals.
We’ve asked some of Covers Experts’ sharpest NCAAF handicappers to break down the available season win totals (5Dimes.eu has select win totals on the bigger name programs) and give their best Over plays for those 2014 expectations:
Marc Lawrence: Florida Gators – Over 7.5 (-125)
“Gators are the epitome of a mission team in 2014, suffering their first losing season since 1979 last year. Florida’s 34-2 SU record during the first four games of the season the last nine years helps launch the new campaign. Playing this year with a full complement of players, plus a 29-7 SU mark the last three times the Gators managed seven or fewer wins the previous season, cements it.”
Art Aronson: North Carolina Tar Heels – Over 7.5 (-140)
“North Carolina played itself out of contention in the Atlantic Coast Conference last season when it lost five of its first six, but the Tar Heels figured things and came on strong. Triggerman Marquise Williams is back and he led the team in both rushing - 536 yards - and passing - 1,698 yards, 15 TDs. If he stays healthy, the Tar Heels should win in the eight to nine range.”
Nick Parsons: Kansas State Wildcats – Over 8.5 (-130)
“Keep an eye on Tyler Lockett, who could be one of the best receivers in the country. Lockett will have a returning QB in Jake Waters, and K-State has a more-than-adequate defense and a friendly schedule in which the Wildcats will play three of its toughest games -Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech - at home.”
Sean Murphy: Oregon Ducks – Over 10.5 (+100)
“I'm a big believer in the Ducks, as they simply find ways to field an electric, often dominant team year in and year out. This is simply a value bet, as we're able to grab a plus money return. Don't count on that number sticking around for much longer.”
Bryan Power: Ohio State Buckeyes – Over 10.5 wins (-140)
“A November 8 visit to East Lansing stands to be the only time the Buckeyes are going to be an underdog this season, and that's a huge revenge game for them stemming from last year's Big Ten Championship Game, which is Urban Meyer's only conference loss in two years.”
Matt Fargo: Florida Gators – Over 7.5 (-125)
“After a 4-1 start, the Gators stumbled to lose their final seven games to finish 4-8. Four of those losses were by six points or less, so that presents a great opportunity for a turnaround. The schedule is demanding with tough road games at Alabama and Florida State but the rest of the difficult games are at home which is a big advantage. Home games against Georgia and South Carolina in the second half of the season are the pivotal ones and a split should get them to eight wins at the very minimum.”
Ted Sevransky: TCU Horned Frogs – Over 6.5 (+120)
“Off a 4-8 season, I want my money on Gary Patterson. TCU hadn't won fewer than seven games since 2004 and their schedule is certainly manageable in what does not look like an 'up' year in the Big 12.”
Steve Merril: Georgia Bulldogs – Over 9.5 (-120)
"The Bulldogs suffered through an injury-plagued 2013. The injuries derailed their season, but they built a lot of depth because of it. Georgia's defense returns nine starters, and with new defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt - Florida State last year - the stop unit will be much improved."
Handicappers share favorite NCAAF season win total Under plays
By Covers.com
The countdown clock is slowly ticking toward the kickoff for college football. Sportsbooks online and in Nevada are cooking up their sharpest futures odds on things like BCS title odds, Games of the Year and season win totals.
We’ve asked some of Covers Experts’ sharpest NCAAF handicappers to break down the available season win totals (5Dimes.eu has select win totals on the bigger name programs) and give their best Under plays for those 2014 expectations:
Bryan Power: Auburn Tigers – Under 9.5 (+115)
“It’s great to get this at plus money. En route to a surprise appearance in the final BCS title game, Auburn experienced a great deal of good fortune. Case in point, they won four games in which they lost the turnover margin. Games this year against South Carolina, Georgia and, of course, the Iron Bowl where rival Alabama will have major revenge on its mind are all possible losses. Throw in a visit from LSU, plus the rest of the always-daunting SEC schedule and I don't see any way the Tigers win 10 games.”
Teddy Covers: Penn State Nittany Lions – Under 8.5 (-140)
“This program is clearly headed in the wrong direction following another coaching chance and severe scholarship limitations from NCAA sanctions. Even the automatic wins against the likes of Akron, UMass and Temple aren't so automatic these days.”
Nick Parsons: Alabama Crimson Tide – Under 10.5 (EVEN)
“To cash on the Over, the Tide need to finish at least 11-1 and as last season’s burp showed, that’s never easy. Bama will have to do it while rebuilding its offense and defense now that A.J. McCarron and C.J. Mosely will be drawing legitimate paychecks. If the Tide get anything less than an A-minus performance from new QB Jacob Coker, it could be difficult in the SEC.”
Marc Lawrence: Texas A&M Aggies – Under 7.5 (-120)
“The Aggies somehow managed to corral nine wins last season despite declining statistically on both sides of the ball. It's never easy losing three players in the first round of the draft, yet alone having to take on a schedule laced with eight bowlers from last season. Sans ‘Johnny Football’ and behind a defense that has deteriorated each of the last three seasons, we can only look one way.”
Matt Fargo: Auburn Tigers – Under 9.5 (+115)
“Auburn was the surprise of college football last season as it made it all the way to the BCS Championship before falling to Florida State. The Tigers were very fortunate with a lot of close wins and that tends to reverse itself out the following year. Additionally, expectations are high, thus a high season win total. They miss Florida but face LSU and South Carolina at home while traveling to Mississippi, Georgia and Alabama in their final three road games.”
Sean Murphy: Texas Longhorns – Under 8.5 (-165)
“I hate having to lay so much juice with this one, but I do feel that the Longhorns are in for a long year - Charlie Strong's first in charge. This program will get pointed in the right direction, but it's going to take some time.”
Steve Merrill: Texas A&M Aggies – Under 7.5 (-120)
“Texas A&M comes into this season with a lot of unknowns, especially since they must replace QB Johnny Manziel and WR Mike Evans. Their defense also needs a ton of work after allowing 32.2 points and 475.8 yards per game last season.”
Handicappers share favorite NCAAF season win total Under Plays
By Covers.com
As the college football schedule creeps closer day after day, more and more wagering options are hitting the board for NCAAF bettors.
Online sportsbook 5Dimes.eu was the first to post season win totals for a handful of select programs earlier this spring and have doubled that list with a fresh set of odds for more teams. We tossed those numbers to our Covers Experts, who give you their favorite Under picks for the college football season win totals:
Marc Lawrence: Vanderbilt Commodores – Under 7.5 (-155)
“Head coach James Franklin, the catalyst behind Vandy's success the last three seasons - all of which were bowl appearances - moves on to Penn State. All of which leaves an abundance of avenging SEC teams in the Commodores path this season. Behind a secondary that needs to be completely retooled, look for Vanderbilt to be behind all season long.”
Steve Merril: Oklahoma State Cowboys – Under 7.5 (-115)
“The Cowboys look to be in rebuilding mode in 2014. Oklahoma State returns the fewest starters in the Big 12 - eight total - and they also have to play five road games in conference play. They played an easy schedule last season, but this year they open with Florida State and close with road games at Baylor and at Oklahoma. With their inexperience and brutal schedule, Oklahoma State will go Under their season wins total.”
Will Rogers: Washington Huskies – Under 9.5 (-205)
“Chris Petersen was a good hire, but asking the Huskies to win 10 games in his first year at the helm in a tough Pac-12 is asking too much.”
Sean Murphy: Utah Utes – Under 4.5 (+140)
“I'm always looking for value with these futures odds and in this case, I believe we're getting a solid plus-money return to go Under with a program in line for a down year. The Pac-12 won't cut the Utes any slack in 2014 and non-conference games against Fresno State and Michigan will provide major challenges.”
AAA Sports: Kentucky Wildcats – Under 3.5 (+130)
“Second-year head coach Mark Stoops has to show some improvement over last season - 2-10 overall, 0-8 SEC - before his bosses start sniffing around for a potential replacement. The Wildcats came out of the spring still looking for an offensive identity, but the QB job looks like it now belongs to Patrick Towles. Kentucky could go 3-0 in its non-SEC games - Tennessee-Martin, Ohio, Louisiana-Monroe - and still not cover the 3.5. To get to four, it would still have to beat a quality league opponent.”
Nick Parsons: Mississippi State Bulldogs – Under 7.5 (-140)
“Oddsmakers figure the Bulldogs to be just about as good as they were last season, when they finished 7-6, including a dominating win over Rice in the Liberty Bowl. Mississippi State basically beat the cupcakes and got schooled in the SEC last year. Quarterback Dak Prescott struggled against the iron, with two TDs, six INTs vs. ranked opponents, so improvement there would give Over players a boost. The defense should be better, but the Bulldogs don’t have the depth to hang too long in the SEC.”
Bryan Power: Vanderbilt Commodores – Under 7.5 (-155)
“With the loss of coach James Franklin and being in the SEC, I don't think the Commies will go bowling this year.”
Jesse Schule: Boise State Broncos – Under 10.5 (-270)
“This seems far too optimistic with a new coach running the show on the blue turf. Grant Hedrick is expected to take over at quarterback and expectations are high after a strong finish to last season. The offense might be improved since Joe Southwick ran the show in the first half of last season, but expect a few growing pains before this team can get back to an elite level.”