Handicapping Heisman Race
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
With college football media days off to a banging start thanks to Nick Saban making excuses and Steve Spurrier cracking jokes at the SEC event, it’s officially time to turn the page to the pigskin.
The NFL is clearly king, but you can get away with calling the NCAA version a worthy prince and can definitely refer to the eventual Heisman Trophy winner as the season’s top dog. Because of the history the hardware carries, it’s the most important individual award in any of the major sports, coming closest to trumping the capturing of a team championship.
Think about it. While most seasons are primarily identified by what team won it all, you can get by recalling Heisman winners in college football just as easily.
The last five, for a variety of reasons, are all household names. Quarterbacks Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, Johnny Manziel, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota will all be weighed down by the expectations lauded on them as former Heisman winners throughout their respective NFL seasons.
The last non-QB to win, running back Mark Ingram, has been labeled a bust because we all expected more. Rounding out the last dozen winners, Sam Bradford has been a failure and faces a new day with Philadelphia, while the winner who preceded him, Tim Tebow, prays for the same chance. Reggie Bush (vacated) never lived up to the hype, but certainly came much closer than the QBs who sandwiched him, Ohio State’s Troy Smith, USC’s Matt Leinart and Oklahoma’s Jason White.
In many ways, winning has been a massive curse, but as is the case with being on the cover of EA’s Madden game, everyone wants the honor. The following is an early handicapping of the top 20 names in the race (Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com). All are passers or running backs, which is fair since a receiver hasn’t won since 1991 (Desmond Howard) and a defensive player hasn’t won since ’97 (Charles Woodson).
Quarterbacks
Trevone Boykin, TCU (9/2): He’s the favorite for a reason. Not only did he finish fourth behind first-rounders Mariota, Melvin Gordon and Amari Cooper last year, he’s got a legitimate shot to be on the tip of everyone’s tongue all season. The Horned Frogs figure to be great on both sides of the ball and the schedule looks friendly until a grueling final stretch that sees them go to Oklahoma and host Baylor six days later. If he gets through those, TCU will almost certainly make the CFB Playoff given no Big 12 Championship game, increasing his chances of being the sixth dual-threat quarterback in a row to hold up the Heisman come December.
Cody Kessler, USC (10/1): Now a senior, he completed nearly 70 percent of his passes for 3,826 yards last season, impressively tossing 39 TDs against just five interceptions. The Trojans figure to be relevant all season so there will be plenty of chances for him to shine, but he did lose three of his top four targets and may not be as consistent.
Dak Prescott, Miss. State (10/1): He got two first-place votes last year and finished eighth, so it’s no surprise to see him return as one of the favorites. Still, we’ll see if the Bulldogs can be a 10-win team again, which doesn’t seem as likely given their late-season setbacks and personnel losses.
Braxton Miller, Cardale Jones & JT Barrett, Ohio State (15/1): The fact these guys are listed together is the obvious problem. If any looked like the clear starter, that guy would be up there with Boykin and their own talented tailback Ezekiel Elliott as a favorite, but Urban Meyer is likely to get them all snaps. Unless you’re of the belief that Miller will be a force of nature as he seeks to make up for lost time, it’s best to avoid all three.
Deshaun Watson, Clemson (15/1): He showed why he was so highly touted in an oft-injured freshman season, but now must prove he can make it through a full slate. The Tigers host Notre Dame and Florida State, so opportunities to shine will definitely be there, making the 19-year-old an interesting choice. It’s definitely a plus that he’s been cleared for practice and should be completely ready for the opener, but Clemson is likely to miss offensive coordinator Chad Morris, who took over for SMU.
Jeremy Johnson, Auburn (22/1): He inherits the keys to Gus Malzahn's explosive offense and has the physical tools to do major damage. The problem is he’ll have to be sharp immediately since Auburn opens with Louisville in Atlanta and visits LSU in the season’s third week. Seems like a boom-or-bust proposition.
Connor Cook, Michigan State (25/1): He led the Big Ten in passing last season and is entering his senior year, so there’s a reason it seems he’s been there forever. He’ll have a Heisman statement game in Columbus against the Buckeyes late in the season (Nov. 21), so the opportunity to compete should definitely exist.
Josh Rosen, UCLA (25/1): Vying to replace Brett Hundley, the consensus top QB recruit in the country has the goods, but that spotlight is going to be too bright for my taste. His receiving corps is going to be young too, so there are bound to be growing pains.
Kyler Murray, Texas A&M (25/1): Another new kid on the block, he opted out of baseball’s draft despite being a likely top-round pick and will challenge Kyle Allen for the job of running Kevin Sumlin's prolific attack. If he can slice up the SEC better than Allen did in taking over for Manziel, we’ll all certainly hear about it.
Anu Solomon, Arizona (30/1): The Wildcats may be this season’s big surprise given the abundance of talent that Rich Rodriguez has returning, so Solomon may actually offer tremendous value. He’s Mariota-like in his maturity and presence running an up-tempo offense, shining as a true freshman (58 pct, 3,793 yds, 28 TDs, 9 INTs), so there’s no reason to believe he won’t improve. The Las Vegas product may indeed be worth gambling on.
Everett Golson, Florida State (30/1): What he brings from South Bend to Tallahassee is a familiarity with the spotlight. If he’s able to keep the Seminoles in the national title picture as Winston’s replacement, he’s got a shot. Of course, we’ve all seen him fail in the clutch a little too much to trust, so there may not be many takers here.
Running backs
Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State (7/1): After dusting Wisconsin for 220 rushing yards in the Big Ten championship, he piled up 230 yards on Alabama in the national semis and went for another 246 yards and an Al Bundy-like four touchdowns to help beat Oregon for the title. So, yes, he’s riding a wave of momentum into Week 1, playing for the odds-on favorite and likely to benefit from his team’s quarterback platoon detailed above. If he weren’t fighting the uphill battle due to his position, he’d be expected to win.
Nick Chubb, Georgia (10/1): He stepped in for the now departed Todd Gurley as a freshman and ran for 1,547, ripping off over seven yards per carry. The Dawgs are going to be in the thick of things in the SEC and Chubb has an opportunity to be among the country’s top backs, making him an attractive option if you believe this is the year Mark Richt’s team finally breaks through. The offensive line he’ll be working behind is definitely supposed to be a strength.
Leonard Fournette, LSU (12/1): After topping 1,000 yards as a freshman, the back considered the best prep at his position coming into the college game could be set to take a major step forward with a year of experience under his belt. Like Chubb, he'll have horses in front of him and a head coach that prefers a conservative run-first approach.
Derrick Henry, Alabama (15/1): Saban's Crimson Tide will again rely on the defense to take it back to promised land, but Henry is poised to anchor the offense. The 240-pound junior is a monster and led 'Bama with 990 yards and 11 rushing TDs despite fewer carries than T.J. Yeldon. There's tremendous value here since Henry has only started two career games.
Samaje Perine, Oklahoma (15/1): You've heard of him due to the single-game record 427 yards and five TDs he piled up against Kansas, but this is no one-hit wonder. A third-team All-American as a true freshman, his only drawback is that the Sooners took a decided step back last season and may again no longer be among the Big 12's best.
Paul Perkins, UCLA (22/1): He led the Pac-12 in rushing (1,575 yds) as a sophomore and can make life much easier on Jim Mora's new quarterback if he can capably put the offense on his back. With his entire O-line back in front of him, Perkins should do major damage.
Royce Freeman, Oregon (30/1): Coming off a freshman season where he scored 18 touchdowns and helped the Mariota-led offense be even more balanced and multi-faceted, there will be increased touches in store for him as the Ducks look to get back to a national championship game.