Handicapping NFL Preseason Home Teams
By Tom Stryker
There's nothing better than an NFL Pre-Season home game. The fans are excited to see their favorite team in their own backyard and the players are elated to be close to their families after the bumps and grinds of camp. Unfortunately, for those of us that like to invest on NFLX hosts, some of these teams can turn out to be bad propositions. Let me explain.
While handicapping this weekend's pro card, I wondered how teams playing in their third Pre-Season game would do if they opened up on the road in their first two battles of the season. My thought was that after a physical camp and two weeks of travel these "homeboys" would perform extremely well in this situation. I was actually right and wrong. Take a look at what I discovered.
Since 1983, NFLX game three home teams coming off back-to-back road affairs to open the season are a mediocre 31-41-1 ATS. (Please note: A neutral site does not count as a game on foreign soil. These are teams coming off two true road wars!) At first glance, that doesn't look like much. But, after digging a little deeper, there were two great situations that popped.
If our game three host arrives off an embarrassing loss of 10 points or more, this Pre-Season system zips to a profitable 16-9 ATS for 64.0 percent. That would make sense. After getting their tails whipped and on the road for two straight, teams bounce back in a big way on their home turf. This weekend, there is one squad locked into this "play on" situation: HOUSTON.
There is one tightener to the 16-9 ATS system that really works like a charm. If our "play on" host is priced as a favorite of -2.5 or more and is matched up against an opponent that arrives off a SU and ATS victory, this system approaches perfection - 10-2 ATS for 83.3 percent dating back to 1983! The Texans apply to this awesome tightener.
Of course, the second situation that popped is obvious once you know the first. If our game three host arrives off back-to-back true road games and is NOT off a double-digit straight up loss, this system crashes to a wallet-breaking 15-32-1 ATS! With the motivation from that ugly loss not present, these home teams tend to relax a bit! Fortunately, there are four teams that apply to this "play against" situation this weekend: KANSAS CITY, DETROIT, MINNESOTA and OAKLAND! This situation actually gets worse provided our host does NOT enter off a blowout win of seven points or more - now 8-26 ATS! The Chiefs, Lions and Vikings fit this tightener.
It always pays to dig a little deeper into some technical sets and this one is a perfect example. One simple system has given us a single potential play in one area and the opportunity for three more in another.