Stats Matter - A Guide to Handicapping the Bowl Games
By Marc Lawrence
Smart handicappers alike agree on one thing – preparation is the key to success. The better prepared you are the better chance you stand at succeeding.
With the 2010 College Bowl season now upon us it’s time to get ready for the thirty-five games that await. While a myriad of different techniques and approaches exist one simple element is often overlooked and that is how teams are or have been performing on the playing field ‘In The Stats’ (ITS) as they enter into its bowl game.
As handicappers we know better than most that the scoreboard does not tell the entire story. Like a doctor examining an MRI or an X-Ray it’s vitally important to look inside the patient before rendering a diagnosis.
Listed below are noteworthy results of how the 70 bowl teams have fared ITS overall or most recently this season…
Air Force – 11-1 ITS this season
Alabama – 11-1 ITS this season
Arizona – 10-2 ITS this season
Arkansas – 9-2-1 ITS this season
Army – 0-4 ITS L4 games season
Auburn – 12-1 ITS this season
Baylor – 1-3 ITS L4 games season
Boise State – 11-1 ITS this season
Boston College – 5-1 ITS L6 games season
BYU – 4-1 ITS L5 games season
Central Florida – 2-3 ITS L5 games season
Clemson – 4-7 ITS this season
Connecticut – 1-6 ITS L7 games season
East Carolina –1-4 ITS L5 games season
Florida – held 4 foes season low yards
Florida International – 8-4 ITS this season
Florida State – 1-4 ITS L5 games season
Fresno State – 11-1 ITS this season
Georgia – 1-4 ITS L5 games season
Georgia Tech – 2-3 ITS L5 games season
Hawaii – 11-2 ITS this season
Illinois – held 5 foes 1-2 season low yards
Iowa – 0-3 ITS L3 games season
Kansas State – 0-6 ITS L6 games season
Kentucky – 4-1 ITS L5 games season
LSU –held 3 foes season low yards
Louisville – 8-4 ITS this season
Maryland – 5-7 ITS this season
Miami Fla – 7-0 ITS L7 games season
Miami Oh – 5-0 ITS L5 games season
Michigan – allowed 4 teams season high yards
Michigan State – 10-2 ITS this season
Mid Tennessee State – 2-6 ITS L8 games season
Mississippi State – 3-3 ITS L6 games season
Missouri – 2-3 ITS L5 games season
Navy – 4-5 ITS L9 games season
Nebraska – held 6 foes 1-2 season low yards
Nevada – 10-3 ITS this season
North Carolina – 8-4 ITS this season
NC State – 3-3 ITS L6 games season
Northern Illinois – 10-3 ITS this season
Northwestern – 1-3 ITS L4 games season
Notre Dame – 4-2 ITS L6 games season
Ohio State – held 10 foes 1-2 season low yards
Ohio U – 4-8 ITS this season
Oklahoma – held 5 foes 1-2 season low yards
Oklahoma State – 9-3 ITS this season
Oregon – 11-1 ITS this season
Penn State – 4-1 ITS L5 games season
Pittsburgh – 9-0 ITS L9 games season
San Diego State – 5-1 ITS L6 games season
SMU – 8-1 ITS L9 games season
South Carolina – 8-4 ITS this season
South Florida – 2-6 ITS L8 games season
Southern Miss – 9-3 ITS this season
Stanford – 10-2 ITS this season
Syracuse – 1-6 ITS L7 games season
TCU – 12-0 ITS this season
Tennessee – 4-0 ITS L4 games season
Texas A&M – 9-3 ITS this season
Texas El Paso – 1-5 ITS L6 games season
Texas Tech – allowed 3 teams season high yards
Toledo – 4-2 ITS L6 games season
Troy – 8-4 ITS this season
Tulsa – 9-3 ITS this season
Utah – 9-3 ITS this season
Virginia Tech – held 5 foes season low yards
Washington – 3-0 ITS L3 games season
West Virginia – held 6 foes 1-2 low yards
Wisconsin – 10-2 ITS this season
Given the fact that teams who outgain their opponent win the game better than 80% of the time, and straight-up winners in bowl games being 539-93-10 ATS since 1980, it’s crucial to your success when evaluating a team’s chance of winning the yardage wars.