Hawaii Bowl News and Notes 12/24

Bowl Tech Trends
By Bruce Marshall

TULSA at HAWAII (Hawaii Bowl, Dec. 24)...Hawaii 7-0 vs. line at Aloha Stadium this season and covered 11 of 13 overall on board in 2012. Warriors just 2-3 vs. spread in this bowl game since '03, however. Tulsa covered 7 of its last 8 games this season and has covered in 3 of 4 bowl tries since 2005. Tech edge-slight to Hawaii, based on home field edge.

Hawaii Bowl Preview
By: Matt Zemek

If mind over matter really is true, the Tulsa Golden Hurricane have the perfect challenge in front of them as they return to the college football postseason. The outfit from the state of Oklahoma will have a tough time beating the Hawaii Warriors in the latest staging of the Hawaii Bowl, but then again, if ever a team was in position to achieve something special, it’s the group that has made a distinct upward climb in Conference USA.

Even though the visitors in this bowl game are a double-digit underdog, it also has to be said that the residents of the South Central Plains have taken big forward strides this season and are situated to spring a surprise against their Western Athletic Conference foe.

Tulsa is an extremely confident team right now. The Golden Hurricane was sagging and flagging in the middle of the season and desperately required a big jolt of momentum. Coach Todd Graham’s group definitely found that source of renewal when it shocked Notre Dame on the road, 28-27, in the dying days of October. That win gave this team a newfound level of belief, and if there were any doubts about the topic at hand, Tulsa flatly dismissed them by sauntering into Houston and deposing the defending Conference USA West Division titlists, the Houston Cougars. Tulsa then went on to edge Southern Mississippi in a 56-50 shootout to finish its year with a very strong 9-3 mark. Considering the 5-7 trail of tears that the 2009 season became, this 2010 trek has been one big and extended bounce-back for the Tulsa football family. There’s no reason for the Golden Hurricane to doubt themselves as they receive a due and just reward for their 12-game season of success.

The Warriors endured an eyesore-inducing loss at Colorado and got bombed by USC in their season opener way back on Thursday, Sept. 2, but in the other games on their slate in 2010, the boys from the Hawaiian islands did really well, winning 10 times and dropping only one decision to the formidable crew from Boise State. Hawaii has jumped into the top 25 and has claimed at least 10 wins in a season for the first time since the 2007 team won the Western Athletic Conference and earned a ticket to the Sugar Bowl against Georgia. New coach Greg McMackin has done a fine job replacing former boss June Jones. He struggled as Hawaii’s boss in 2008 and 2009 but has righted the ship in 2010.

This tilt shapes up as a high-voltage collision between two passing offenses that both rank in the nation’s top 20. G.J. Kinne of Tulsa and Bryant Moniz of Hawaii figure to hang up some Christmas lights on the Aloha Stadium scoreboard – that’s how high-octane the Hawaii Bowl is expected to be. What should make the difference is the mindset of Tulsa. Given that Hawaii will be playing a home game inside its own stadium, the Golden Hurricane will probably have to be 14 points better on the merits to win. Graham and the rest of the Tulsa braintrust will need to emphasize this need to their charges before kickoff. The other disadvantage Tulsa is working against is that Hawaii’s defense is more rugged than you might at first think. A season-making 27-21 win over Nevada, one of the premier rushing teams in the nation, showed that there’s some steak to go with the Warriors’ sizzle. If Tulsa doesn’t bring its lunch pail and can’t war with the natives in the trenches, this is just going to be one extended island Christmas party for the de facto hosts.

STAT PACK:

Tulsa:

Passing Yards Per Game: 284.2 (National ranking out of 120 FBS teams: 16)

Rushing Yards Per Game: 219.3 (Ranking: 15)

Points Per Game: 39.7 (Ranking: 10)

Points Allowed Per Game: 29.9 (Ranking: 84)

Hawaii:

Passing: 387.8 ypg (Ranking: 1)

Rushing: 109.1 ypg (Ranking: 106)

Scoring: 39.9 ppg (Ranking: 9)

Scoring Defense: 22.7 ppg (Ranking: 42)

Hawaii Bowl Preview
By Brian Edwards

Need a distraction at a chaotic family gathering on Christmas Eve? You and your cousins love to do the bets-and-ballgames thing during the holidays?

Whatever the case, you’re in luck Friday night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern when ESPN brings you live coverage of the Hawaii Bowl, pitting Tulsa from out of Conference USA against Hawaii from the WAC.

Both of these schools are bowling again after being left out of the postseason fun last year. Tulsa had been to four straight bowl games before going 5-7 last year, while Hawaii had been to the postseason eight straight years prior to a 6-7 campaign in 2009.

As of Thursday afternoon, most books were listing the Warriors as 10 ½-point favorites with the total in the 73-74 range. Bettors can take the Golden Hurricane to win outright for a plus-300 payout (risk $100 to win $300).

When the numbers initially came out earlier this month, Sportsbook.com opened Hawaii (10-3 straight up, 11-2 against the spread) as a 12 ½-point favorite with a total of 71 ½.

“We had a good bit of sharp money come in on Tulsa as the underdog, prompting us to adjust the number to 10 ½,” Sportsbook.com Senior Oddsmaker Mike Perry told VegasInsider.com on Wednesday. “As for the total, 75 percent of our action has been on the ‘over’ and we’re now at 73.”

Tulsa (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) finished the regular season with six straight wins, including a 56-50 win over So. Miss as a three-point home favorite. Junior quarterback G.J. Kinne accounted for six touchdowns, rushing for two and throwing for four. The transfer from Texas completed 23-of-37 passes for 406 yards and also rushed for 48 yards.

Damaris Johnson, one of the nation’s most versatile players on offense and in the return game, produced 221 all-purpose yards and had a 46-yard rushing touchdown. Also, senior WR Trae Johnson hauled in four receptions for 113 yards.

Todd Graham’s team has cashed tickets at an 8-1 ATS clip in its last nine games. When Tulsa has been listed as an underdog this year, it has posted a 2-2 SU record and a 3-1 ATS mark. The Golden Hurricane won outright at Notre Dame (28-27 as a 9 ½-point ‘dog) and at Houston (28-25 as a 2 ½-point puppy).

Hawaii has been the nation’s must lucrative team to support all year. The only non-covers came in losses at Colorado and at Boise State. In the loss in Boulder, the Warriors led 10-0 at intermission as 13-point underdogs, only to end up losing by a 31-13 count.

Greg McMackin’s squad has won three in a row both SU and ATS, including a 59-21 win over UNLV as a 32-point home ‘chalk.’ Junior QB Bryant Moniz connected on 29-of-43 passes for 380 yards and four touchdowns. Moniz also rushed for a pair of touchdowns.

Senior RB Alex Green rushed for 136 yards and one touchdown on just 15 carries. Senior WR Kealoha Pilares had nine receptions for 157 yards and one TD.

For the season, Moniz has put up blistering numbers. He has completed 66.3 percent of his passes for 4,629 yards with a 36/11 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Senior WR Greg Salas has been his favorite target, hauling in 106 catches for 1,675 yards and 12 TDs. Pilares has 88 receptions for 1,306 yards and 15 TDs.

During the June Jones’ Era, Hawaii rarely ran the ball. These days, the Warriors’ MO is still to attack through the air, but they have definitely established more balance. In fact, Green has rushed for 1,168 yards and 17 TDs. He’s averaging an eye-popping 8.8 yards per carry.

Kinne has 3,307 passing yards and a 28/10 TD-INT ratio. He has Tulsa ranked fifth in the nation in total yards and 10th in scoring offense.

His favorite target is the aforementioned Johnson, who has blazing speed despite his diminutive size. Johnson has 53 catches for 771 yards and three touchdowns. Also, he has rushed for 462 yards and six TDs, averaging 9.2 YPC.

Hawaii has thrived in double-digit ‘chalk’ situations this year, compiling a remarkable 5-0 spread record.

Totals have been an overall wash (6-6-1) for Hawaii, which saw a run of five consecutive ‘unders’ before the ‘over’ hit in each of its last two regular-season contests.

Meanwhile, Tulsa has watched the ‘under’ go 7-5 overall.

vegasinsider.com

What Bettors Need to Know: Hawaii Bowl

Tulsa at Hawaii (-10, 73.5)

The Skinny:

A pair of teams on a roll that feature prolific offenses face off when Hawaii and Tulsa meet in the Hawaii Bowl on Dec. 24.

Hawaii (10-3) earned a share of the Western Athletic Conference title with Boise State and Nevada and posted its sixth 10-win season in school history. The Warriors have a chance for their third 11-win season since 2006.

Tulsa (9-3) bounced back from its first losing season since 2004 and earned its fifth bowl bid in six years.

Hawaii’s edge:

Quarterback Bryant Moniz is one of the country’s best offensive threats yet goes under the radar playing in the same conference as Heisman Trophy finalist Kellen Moore of Boise State and Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick.

Moniz leads the nation in total offense and is 10th in pass efficiency at 161.94. He is a big reason the Warriors are ninth in the nation in scoring offense at 39.9 points per game.

Tulsa’s Edge:

Balance. The Golden Hurricane rank among the top 15 nationally in passing and rushing yards per game. If they can mix in the run and sustain drives, they will be able to control tempo and keep the vaunted Warriors' offense off the field and also quiet the home crowd.

The Quarterbacks:

Moniz had a huge junior season, throwing for 4,629 yards and 36 touchdowns as the offense looked much like it did in its heyday under gunslingers Timmy Chang and Colt Brennan.

Moniz is tops in the nation in total offense at 361.9 yards per game and he threw three or more touchdown passes in nine of Hawaii’s 13 games.

Moniz won’t be the only top-notch signal-caller in this one as Tulsa quarterback G.J. Kinne runs the Golden Hurricanes’ spread offense deftly.

Kinne, Conference USA’s offensive player of the year, threw for 3,307 yards and 28 touchdowns while also rushing for a team-high 557 yards with seven scores. Kinne is fourth in the FBS in total offense at 322.0 yards per game.

NFL Prospects:

Tulsa — FB Charles Clay, WR Trae Johnson. Hawaii — WR Greg Salas.

Bowl History:

Hawaii is 4-5 in bowl games and has not won since 2006, when it knocked off Arizona State. The Warriors have been handled pretty easily in their last two bowls — by Georgia in the Sugar Bowl after the 2007 season and by Notre Dame in the Hawaii Bowl the following year.

Etc:

Tulsa has four players with at least 333 rushing yards. ... Hawaii safety Mana Silva had eight interceptions this season and is the school’s all-time leader with 14.

Line Movement:

Oddsmakers opened with Hawaii installed as 12.5-point favorite but the line is now down to 10 at just about all shops. There's also been some movement on the total. The over/under number opened as low as 70 but is now sitting between 73.5 and 74.

Betting Trends:

Tulsa is 4-0 against the spread (ATS) in its last four road games and 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall. Meanwhile, Hawaii is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite and 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games.

The over is 8-2 in Hawaii's last 10 non-conference games but the under is 10-3-1 in Hawaii's last 14 games as a home fave.

Hawaii Five-O
By Cajun Sports

This week Cajun Sports College Football System of the Week looks at a particularly strong bowl system that is active in the Hawaii Bowl on Friday night. Tulsa Golden Hurricane makes the long trip west to the islands for a meeting against the Hawaii Warriors in Honolulu.

One of the parameters of the system plays on teams that have allowed more than twenty-one points in each of their last five games. Tulsa has allowed more than twenty-one points in each of their last five games but they have actually won all five and gone 4-1 against the spread over that span. The fact they won those games and covered four of the five are not parameters of the system but it certainly adds to the overall strength of the selection.

Our system tells us to Play ON a Conference Championship/Bowl team (not a favorite of 4+ points or underdog of more than 14 points) off allowing 22+ points in each of its last 5 games vs. a non-Independent opponent.

The system has a record of 16-0 ATS covering the spread by an average of 10.4 points per game since 1999. The straight up record for this system is a solid 13-3 winning by an average of 7.6 points per game.

We had two qualifying games last bowl season the first occurred on January 1 when FSU +2.5 faced West Virginia winning outright 33 to 21. The second came one day later when Connecticut a four-point underdog to South Carolina proceeded to win 20 to 7 and give the system its sixteenth victory since 99.

With all the system parameters met, this week’s Cajun Sports NCAA Football Bowl System of the Week qualifies the Tulsa Golden Hurricane plus the points over the Hawaii Warriors. Book’em Dano

Tips and Trends

Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Hawaii Rainbows

GOLDEN HURRICANE: Tulsa really finished the regular season strong, winning their final 6 games SU. The Golden Hurricane went 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS overall this season. Tulsa was 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS on the road this year. Tulsa was 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS as the listed underdog this season, with tonight marking the first time this season they were a double digit underdog. The Golden Hurricane are ranked in the top 16 in nearly every offensive category. Tulsa averages nearly 285 YPG through the air and 220 YPG via the ground, ranking them 16th and 15th respectively. QB G.J. Kinne combined for more than 3,850 total YDS this season, including 35 TD's. The Golden Hurricane average 39.7 PPG this year, 10th best in the country. The biggest weakness for Tulsa is their defense, as they surrendered 29.9 PPG, ranking them in the bottom 3rd in the nation. The Golden Hurricane are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Tulsa is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Golden Hurricane are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. Tulsa is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as the listed underdog. The Golden Hurricane are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.

Golden Hurricane are 8-1 ATS last 9 games overall.
Under is 7-1 last 8 non-conference games.

Key Injuries - None Reported.

Projected Score: 38

RAINBOWS: (-10, O/U 73) Hawaii had an outstanding regular season this year, as they finished with a 10-3 SU record. The Rainbows were one of the very best teams from an ATS standpoint this year, going 11-2 ATS. Hawaii was 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS at home this year, where they will be again tonight. The Rainbows were a perfect 5-0 ATS as a double digit favorite this year. Hawaii threw the ball twice as much as they ran it, with QB Bryant Moniz leading the way. Moniz threw for more than 4,600 YDS and 36 TD's this season. Senior WRs Greg Salas and Kealoha Pilares each went over 1,300 receiving YDS and combined for 27 TD's this year. This trio combined for more than 387 passing YPG, the most in the nation. Hawaii finished the regular season averaging 39.9 PPG, 9th best in the country. Defensively, the Warriors allowed 22.7 PPG this season. The Warriors are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games. Hawaii is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. The Warriors are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games played on fieldturf. Hawaii is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win. The Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win. Hawaii is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Warriors are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

Rainbows are 8-0 ATS last 8 games as a favorite.
Over is 8-2 last 10 non-conference games.

Key Injuries - RB Hogan Rosehill (knee) is questionable.

Projected Score: 49 (OVER-Total of the Day)