Hawaii Bowl: Southern Methodist Mustangs vs. Nevada Wolf Pack
The fans at Aloha Stadium will be treated to a game between the Southern Methodist Mustangs and the Nevada Wolf Pack when they take their seats for the Hawaii Bowl.
Oddsmakers currently have the Wolf Pack listed as 12½-point favorites versus the Mustangs, while the game's total is sitting at 72½.
Shawnbrey McNeal's touchdown gave SMU a 26-21 win over Tulane in Week 13.
The Mustangs did not cover the large 19-point spread, while the final score played UNDER the day's posted total of 55.
Nevada was defeated 44-33 by Boise State in Week 13 as a 13.5-point underdog. The 77 points made it OVER the posted total of 71.
Colin Kaepernick passed for 141 yards with three touchdowns in that loss.
Team records:
Southern Methodist: 7-5 SU, 6-5 ATS
Nevada: 8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS
Southern Methodist most recently:
When playing in December are 0-1
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing outside the conference are 2-8
Nevada most recently:
When playing in December are 3-4
When playing on turf are 7-3
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the conference are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
Southern Methodist is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Southern Methodist is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Southern Methodist is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games
Nevada is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Nevada is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Nevada's last 7 games
SMU (7 - 5) vs. NEVADA (8 - 4)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
SOUTHERN METHODIST vs. NEVADA
Southern Methodist is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Southern Methodist is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Nevada is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Nevada is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
SMU vs. Nevada
SMU
12-3 Over off home win
6-1 ATS as an underdog
Nevada
6-0 Over off BB ATS wins
15-9 Over if the total is 63+
SMU
Jones 48-14 SU vs opponent off loss… 1-4 SU and In The Stats vs fellow bowlers this season
Nevada
5-1 w/rest vs sub .666 opp with Ault… DD WAC bowl favorites 1-4
SMU Comes Full Circle In Hawaii Bowl
By Doug Upstone
Southern Methodist last played in a bowl game in 1984, and three years later was sanctioned with the "Death Penalty". The Mustangs return to the same venue in Hawaii 25 years later, with much of the credit going to former Hawaii coach June Jones. While some of those on islands despise Jones for taking the money and leaving Hawaii, the facts were he did everything he could to stay and just wanted to be adequately compensated, since the U of H and BCS go together like Hawaiian weather and snow.
SMU (7-5, 6-5-1 ATS) has seen Jones turn around a dormant program in just two years after having produced one winning season (1997) since feeling the wrath of the NCAA. Jones has manufactured his run-and-shoot offense in Dallas, that ranks 28th in passing nationally and has to be tugging on his lei thinking about 118th ranked Nevada pass defense to throw against. The Ponies are 5-1 ATS against teams with winning records.
SMU will face a Nevada (8-4, 7-5 ATS) team that was 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS down the stretch, scoring 49.6 points per game after starting 0-3. The Wolf Pack are in a bowl game for a fifth straight year and are the first NCAA team to have three 1,000 rushers.
In retrospect, it's unfathomable to consider Nevada was actually shutout by Notre Dame 35-0 in both teams season opener. How could a team with that much firepower on offense only gain 307 yards against what turned out to be porous Irish defense? It just proves things are not always as they first appear.
Nevertheless, two-thirds of the 1,000 yard club won't be available, with Luke Lippincott out with injury and Vai Tuau an academic casualty. That leaves quarterback Colin Kaepernick to be the main focus of attention for SMU and he has delivered. The Wolf Pack is 11-3 ATS when they gain 500 or more total yards over the last two seasons.
Sportbet.com has Nevada as 12.5-point favorite with total of 72.5. The Wolf Pack is 3-6 all-time in bowl games, covering the spread just once in six lined appearances. They were .500 against others playing in the postseason with 3-1 ATS mark. Nevada hasn't won a bowl since outlasting Central Florida 49-48 in Hawaii in 2005.
With the ghosts of Eric Dickerson and Craig James lurking in the background (the old "Pony Express"), SMU earns first bowl bid in a quarter century, which ironically is the same bowl. The Mustangs are 4-6-1 and 2-2 ATS all-time. SMU is 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 non-conference clashes, but is 6-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
The total has intriguing dichotomy, with Nevada 10-2 OVER having won two out of their last three games and SMU 16-5 UNDER as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. Before making a decision either way, consider this bowl system- Play UNDER in a bowl game if the non-conference participants are from second tier division 1-A conferences. (34-10 L10Y)
It's never made much sense why the Hawaii Bowl starts at 8:00 Eastern on Christmas Eve, since the games are typically four hour scoring marathons. Favorites and underdogs have alternated spread victories for the last five years, and based on that pattern, it would be the underdog's turn to cover in 2009. This has been a very high scoring bowl series, with the winning team having surpassed the 35-point mark all but once since '95 while averaging 44.9 point per game.
Hawaii Bowl
By Judd Hall
As the college football bowl season motors along, we’ve started to see some profitable trends. The most noticeable advantage for bettors to take is playing on the pups. Through four games, the underdogs have gone 3-1 straight up and against the spread. We’ve also seen the scores just fly off the charts in the early going as the ‘over’ has hit in the first four matches on the schedule.
The gambling public is certainly expecting to see more offensive fireworks on Christmas Eve as Nevada (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) gets set to butt heads with Southern Methodist (7-5 ATS, 6-4-1 ATS) at the Hawaii Bowl from Honolulu on ESPN at 8:00 p.m. EST.
Bettors have so far sided with the Mustangs to make a game of it on Thursday night. Meanwhile, the public is a tad apprehensive on backing the Wolf Pack as they’re not playing at full strength. That’s an odd turn of events for a team that finished up the year with a hard fought loss to Boise State after running over several opponents in the process.
Most sportsbooks have Nevada currently listed as a 12½-point “chalk” with the total tap-dancing around 72 and 72½. SMU can be played for the outright win for a plus-375 return (risk $100 to win $375).
Sportsbook.com is currently showing that 68 percent of the money that have taken in has gone towards the ‘over.’
It’s easy to see why the public is hitting the ‘over’ on a regular basis as we inch closer to kickoff. Nevada is averaging an astounding 40.6 points per game this season to rank fifth in the nation. The Wolf Pack have no doubt skewed the number in later part of their season, with totals coming in no less than 60.
The Wolf Pack have been able to light up the scoreboard thanks to a solid running attack out of the pistol offense. Sixth-year senior quarterback Colin Kaepernick (who actually knew you could be a six-year senior?) has mastered the system in 2009 by running for 1,160 yards and 16 touchdowns. He’s also had two of the nation’s better running backs to hand the ball off to as well in Luke Lippincott and Vai Taua. Lippincott came up with 1,034 yards on the ground, with Taua leading the team with 1,345 yards. The duo accounted for 19 touchdowns for the season as well.
To say this trio has been unstoppable would be an understatement. They have helped Nevada lead the country in rushing with an average of 362.3 yards per game. If you’re wondering how good that is, consider that the second place team in rushing Georgia Tech is picking up 307.2 YPG this season.
Ault’s offense knew it was going into this contest without the services of Lippincott, who is laid up with a toe injury. VegasInsider.com expert handicapper James Manos isn’t too worried about the loss. “Nevada's running game is 95% about the system and about the QB's ability to sell the option reads and make the correct decisions. Lippincott's loss is not that big a deal as far as rushing yards are concerned. The real issue is if his replacements are able to avoid turning the ball over while running the option. I wouldn't place too much value on the loss of just Lippincott.“
The only problem is that Nevada will also be without Taua, who decided that he was too good to actually do any of his own work in the classroom. That shiftlessness has transformed into Taua being academically ineligible to play in the Hawaii Bowl. That means the Pack has to go into this game with a platoon of runners that have combined for just 851 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Southern Methodist comes out of the catacombs here as it make its first trip to a bowl game since suffering the “Death Penalty” in 1987, but don’t think they got this spot just for the hell of it.
The Mustangs come into this contest after winning four of their last five matches, and would have played for the Conference USA title if it weren’t for a 34-31 setback on Nov. 21 at Marshall.
SMU takes a different approach to moving the ball than what the Wolf Pack do; they take to the skies. The Mustangs have the 28th best passing attack in the country, racking up 267.2 passing YPG. What’s impressive about that is they are running the run-and-shoot behind true freshman QB Kyle Padron. He has completed 64 percent of his passes for 1,462 yards with eight touchdowns to just four picks. Padron, however, has connected on just 58 percent of his throws for 489 yards and two scores and a pick. Emmanuel Sanders has been a viable target by catching 91 passes for 1,215 yards and six scores.
What makes this matchup advantageous is the fact that Nevada is giving up 284.3 YPG through the air. That firmly places the Wolf Pack as the 119th best pass defense in the nation. Things have gotten worse defensively for Ault here as he has dismisses safety Duke Williams for the game and kicked linebacker Andre Davis from the program altogether.
What Padron’s starting has also done is jumpstart the Mustangs’ running game. They have rushed for at least 96 yards in each of their last four games to end the regular season. Former Miami Hurricane Shawnbrey McNeal has been a great asset for the offense this year by running for 1,125 yards and nine touchdowns…six of those scores have came in the last four fixtures.
Nevada has had a rough run when in the postseason as they’re just 1-3 SU and ATS over its last four bowl appearances. June Jones, on the other hand, is 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS in six career bowl appearances – all with Hawaii, of course.
Jones’ Mustangs have not fared well in terms of outright wins as underdogs, as evidenced by them going 3-4 SU this season. Yet the gamblers out there are ready, willing and able to back them as they’ve gone 6-1 ATS.
The Wolf Pack has gone 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS in 2009 as favorites. They’ve been posted as double-digit faves five times this season, going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS.
What could be problematic for Nevada backers is the fact that they have gone 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS versus Conference USA foes since 1997. SMU is 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS in its last eight meetings with teams from the WAC.
vegasinsider.com
SMU (7-5, 6-5 ATS) vs. Nevada (8-4, 7-5 ATS)
In just his second year at Southern Methodist, coach June Jones has the Mustangs back in a bowl game for the first time in 25 years, and they’ll face the country’s top rushing team in Nevada at Aloha Stadium.
SMU won four of its final five games (2-3 ATS) and finished tied with Houston atop the Conference USA West Division. The Mustangs concluded the regular season with a 26-21 home win over Tulane, coming up well short as a 19½-point favorite. The underdog covered 10 of SMU’s 11 lined contests this year, including the last five in a row. The only exception was the Mustangs’ 38-15 loss at Houston as a 16-point underdog, a result that kept SMU from playing in the Conference USA championship game.
Nevada had an eight-game winning streak (6-2 ATS) snapped in a 44-33 loss at unbeaten Boise State on Nov. 27, a game that decided the Western Athletic Conference champion. But the Wolf Pack got a late score to cash as an 11½-point underdog, their fourth straight spread-cover. Nevada scored at least 31 points in each of its final nine games, tallying more than 50 five times and more than 60 four times. Prior to the Boise State contest, the favorite had gone 8-3 ATS in the Pack’s first 11 outings.
The Wolf Pack boast the country’s No. 1 rushing attack at 362.3 yards per game, and they became the first time in NCAA history to have three players rush for more than 1,000 yards, with Vai Taua leading the way with 1,345 yards (10 TDs), followed by QB Colin Kaepernick (1,160 yards, 16 rushing TDs) and Luke Lippincott (1,034 yards, 9 TDs). However, Taua (ineligible) and Lippincott (injury) have been ruled out for this game.
SMU hasn’t been in a bowl game since 1984 when it beat Notre Dame, but a year later the Mustangs were on probation for recruiting violations and three years later the NCAA shut down the program for continued violations. The Mustangs, who went 1-11 in Jones’ first year in 2008, enjoyed the single biggest turnaround in Division I-A this year.
Nevada fell 42-35 to Maryland in last year’s Humanitarian Bowl in Boise, Idaho, getting upset as a 2½-point favorite. The Wolf Pack are making their fifth straight postseason appearance, but the only win during this run came back in 2005 when they beat Central Florida 49-48 in this Hawaii Bowl, failing to cover as a 3½-point favorite.
These teams haven’t met since they were WAC rivals earlier this decade. In the most recent clash in 2004, SMU beat Nevada 38-20 as a five-point home ‘dog after losing the previous three seasons (1-2 ATS).
In addition to being the nation’s most prolific rushing team, the Wolf Pack rank second in the country with 521.6 total yards per game and fifth in scoring at 40.6 points per contest. Defensively, Nevada surrenders 27.2 points and 399.6 total yards per game, but just 115.3 rushing ypg.
The Mustangs averaged 30 points and 394.4 total yards per contest over their final five games. They are led by RB Shawnbrey McNeal, who ran for 1,125 yards and nine TDs, and WR Emmanuel Sanders who holds the school record for catches in a season (91) and receiving yards (1,215). The problem has been SMU’s defense, which is allowing 29.1 points and 404 yards per game (169.2 rushing ypg). The Mustangs yielded 30-plus points in seven of their 11 Division I-A games.
The Mustangs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last six against winning teams, however they are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. Nevada is just 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference contests, but otherwise it is on positive ATS streaks of 4-0 overall, 4-1 as a favorite and 14-3 as a favorite of more than 10 points.
SMU has topped the total in 16 of its last 21 after a straight-up win and five of six against WAC schools, but the under for the Mustangs is on runs of 7-3-1 as an underdog and 15-5-1 as a ‘dog of more than 10 points. The Wolf Pack are on “over” stretches of 5-2 overall and 7-3 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEVADA
What Bettors Need To Know: Hawaii Bowl
By Ted Sevransky
How they got here
The Mustangs entered the season on a 17-game C-USA losing streak, but they finished 6-2 in conference, including an outright win over eventual champ East Carolina.
The win over the Pirates was SMU’s lone victory against a bowl bound foe. Their other five FBS wins came against teams that were a combined 19-41 straight up.
Nevada shook off a disappointing 0-3 start to go 8-1 down the stretch with their lone loss was an ATS win at Boise State.
The Wolfpack beat two bowl teams – Fresno State and Idaho – by a combined margin of 122-59. But the squad’s other two tries against bowl bound clubs both resulted in double-digit defeats.
SMU scouting report
The headlines here are all about SMU head coach June Jones returning to his old stomping grounds in Hawaii, where he won a national coach of the year award and took the Warriors all the way to a BCS Bowl following their undefeated 2007 regular season.
The real story is that SMU finally ended one of the longest bowl droughts in FBS football, dating all the way back to their ‘death penalty’ verdict for numerous NCAA violations back in the 1980s.
Jones’ offense is led by frosh QB Kyle Padron, who drove the Mustangs to a 4-1 record after Bo Levi Mitchell got hurt. Mitchell is healthy now, but he hasn’t won his job back.
Emmanuel Sanders caught 91 balls in this pass-happy offense, but RB Shawnbrey McNeal gave them real balance with more than 1,200 yards on the ground. Linebacker Chase Kennemer led the team in tackles, tackles for loss and fumble recoveries.
The Nevada story
Nevada has been a perennial bowl team in recent years, making its fifth consecutive bowl appearance. The team lost its bowl games in each of the last three years, including a seven-point loss as a favorite against Maryland last year in the Humanitarian Bowl.
The Wolfpack’s lone bowl victory this decade came right here at the Hawaii Bowl in 2005, a 49-48 OT thriller against UCF, but they didn’t cover the pointspread as 2.5 point favorites.
The Wolfpack were a dominant rushing team this year, leading the nation with a whopping 4,337 yards on the ground. Nevada also led the country in rushing yards per attempt by a wide margin, gaining 7.6 yards per attempt. The No. 2 team in college football finished with 6.0 yards per carry - a clear indication of the big-play ability that Nevada enjoys from its running game.
The Wolfpack offensive line felt spurned, after the unit failed to receive a single All-WAC first team selection.
“Some of the offensive linemen are kind of mad about the first-team thing,” running back Vai Taua told reporters. “I think they definitely want to get out there and hit some people."
Nevada’s defense struggled against the pass this year, ranking 114th in pass efficiency and 119th in passing yards allowed.
Key injuries
Nevada has a three-headed rushing attack with QB Colin Kaepernick and RBs Vai Taua and Luke Lippincott each gaining more than 1000 yards on the ground. But Taua flunked out of school and was ruled academically ineligible for the bowl game. Lippincott has a toe injury that will force him to miss the game as well.
Sophomore RB Lampford Mark and frosh RB Mike Ball have big shoes to fill for this one.
Pointspread movement
Nevada opened as a 12-point favorite, but wiseguy money immediately poured in on the Wolfpack, driving the line as high as -15. Over the last few days, due to some key injury information, the money has been coming the other way, pushing the current number down to Nevada -13.5.
The total opened at 73, but the injury info has affected that number as well, with the current total sitting at 72.5.
Hawaii Bowl
June Jones returns to paradise with an SMU team playing in bowl for first time since 1984; Mustangs are 6-1 vs spread as an underdog in '09, and dogs are 5-0 vs spread in bowls so far this year. Jones was 3-1 in his last four bowls with Hawai'i, scoring 41 ppg. Nevada's two best RBs are suspended for this game; Wolf Pack is playing in its fifth straight bowl, losing last three, allowing 33.5 ppg (average total, 58.5).
Nevada won here 49-48 in 2005; they come here to play conference rival Hawai'i. Wolf Pack were 0-3 at one point this year, losing to Colorado St 35-20, a bad loss, but then they won eight in row before losing 44-33 at Boise State in regular season finale. SMU is 7-5 despite losing two OT games (@ Washington State, Navy); the losing team scored 30+ points in four of its 12 games.
Underdog is 11-1 vs spread this season in SMU games. Conference USA underdogs are 7-11 vs spread on road. C-USA bowl teams are 14-20 the last seven years, 7-10 the last three. WAC teams lost seven of last nine bowls the last two years. WAC favorites are 5-2 vs spread in non-league, games, 2-2 away from home.