Head Coaching Debuts
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
With the NFL season starting this week, there are a handful of brand new head coaches making their debut in Week 1. For the exception of Jeff Fisher (Rams), Romeo Crennel (Chiefs), and Mike Mularkey (Jaguars), who have previous head coaching experience in the NFL, we'll take a look at the four new head men and the uphill battle they face in the opener.
Chuck Pagano (Colts), Greg Schiano (Buccaneers), Joe Philbin (Dolphins), and Dennis Allen (Raiders) are all listed as underdogs in Week 1, while Tampa Bay and Oakland take on division foes at home. Pagano and Philbin are also faced with the tall task of starting on the road with rookie quarterbacks, as the likes of Carolina (2011) and Detroit (2009) lost on the highway with a first-year coach and a quarterback making his debut.
Since 2007, there have been 20 coaches making their professional debut, as these men are just 8-12 SU and 8-11-1 ATS. Six coaches were listed as favorites, with Mike Tomlin ('07) and Jim Harbaugh ('11) as the only two to win straight-up and cover the spread. We'll focus more on underdog history, since this is the situation in Week 1.
Look for low-scoring games with coaches making their debut as road underdogs, posting a 7-3-1 mark to the 'under' the last five seasons. Two of the three high-scoring affairs came in 2009, with Jim Schwartz when the Lions fell at New Orleans, 45-27 and Todd Haley's debut with Kansas City at Baltimore, a 38-24 setback. The third 'over' in this 11-game sample occurred last September when the Panthers lost in a shootout at Arizona, but two of these three 'overs' happened with a top pick under center (Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford).
The Bucs and Raiders are short home 'dogs, as teams in this situation since 2007 are just 2-2 SU/ATS. The two victories came in 2008 with clubs that ended up making the postseason as Atlanta and Baltimore both came out with wins, while rookie quarterbacks made the start. Tampa Bay and Oakland aren't in that situation as Josh Freeman and Carson Palmer return as starting quarterbacks, respectively.
The Colts finished 4-1 ATS last season when receiving at least nine points, as Indianapolis heads to Chicago in Week 1. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay was the worst ATS team in the final 10 games of last season, cashing just once, while its last victory came at home against Tampa Bay in October 2011.
Miami begins this campaign with eighth overall pick Ryan Tannehill starting under center, even though Matt Moore won six of the final nine games for the Dolphins last season. The Dolphins have never beaten the Texans in six lifetime meetings, including three losses by three points or less at Reliant Stadium.