Just wanted to pick your brain a little bit more about what you said in Banning's thread about line movement between books. I have open accounts at several books, but there are some books that just have the tightest lines. If they have a good line then they up the juice more. Sometimes I second guess a pick when a really tight line book has a better line then a loose line book? Do not have a real question about this, but just want you to go into a little bit more detail about this.
Thanks for you input
Lol. You are gonna have to ask me at least a small question POD because I am not real sure how to respond to this.
Are you asking me about taking a worse line at a better price instead of taking a better line at a worse price or something more complicated like how certain books arrive at their line/price.
Clarify a little bit for me and I will begin my ramblings
If you can't get the best number laying -110 then just pass the game,anytime you start laying anything more than -110 you are just making it that much tougher to win in the long run since juice is the bookmakers friend.I don't have the math in front of me but you would be shocked if you saw what % of winners you have to pick when your laying anything above -110 compared to laying -110.
Do you ever stay away from a bet if a tighter line book has a better line then a loose line book? Or is this just all smoke and mirrors?
As long as I am getting the best number while laying -110 or less I will bet with anyone,if you don't always try to get the best possible number you are doomed to lose in the long run.
Tonight is a good example on the juice. Most of the tight books are laying even juice on taking the Jags at +3 tonight. Are they doing this b/c they need more bets on the Jags or what? Why can't they just leave the damn juice at -110 all the time? It really screws with my head sometimes when making a bet. I feel really good about a bet then I start to back off when the book as even or -105 juice? Anybody else look into this or am I over analyzing everything?
Books hate moving off of 3 in the NFL and will always move the juice on 3 to try and and get money on the other side rather than move the number.Say a book takes 5,000 on a NFL side, normally they would move the line when they get heavy on one side for around what ever there limit is but if the number is 3 they might wait till that number is 3-4 times the limit till they will ever think about moving off of 3.
Blade is correct, you never want to pay more than .10 period. You only ever have the chance to win $100 on every $100, the bookmaker always has then chance to win $110 but only lose $100. Never pay more.
To your question, it really depends on the book in question. If we are talking about a favorite at a place like Pinnacle then yes, that's worth some doubt or at the very least a second glance. They cater to big money bettors, they have enough money to take stands and have a very good track record of predicting betting patterns and adjusting accordingly.
If we are talking about a place like Bodog who caters mostly to people who bet based on what they learn from Sports Center then no. Bodog is 100% business, they don't take stands, they manage risk better than anyone in the business and they don't middle, scalp, or bet into other books.
Pinnacle is gonna move the line because they are smarter than you, Bodog is gonna move a line because they don't want to lose any money. CRIS may move a line because the owner has a million dollar wager with some mover and he wants to use his customer base to hedge his bet.
As I mentioned in the other thread, it's a giant misconception that the point spread is out there to entice action on both sides. In theory that is the point but in reality there are many, many variables that cause line movements other then # of bets or amount of money wagered.
Business philosophies, ownership, client base, handle, exposure and yes even action are all part of the formula that goes into moving the line once it's hung. Unless you know a little about all these things you can't really make a solid prediction about what line movement means.
What Blade said.
3 is the most important # in NFL Football. More games end and have the possibility to end within 3 points than any other number.
And that is why they jerk with the price. They don't want to move the line because 3 is a better number for them and they will entice you either way by either giving you a little bit more than +100 or charging you more than -110 for the fav.
Thank you for your answers. I guess as long as were are not working for the books, we get screwed both ways. LOL!! I just need to stop over anaylizing and just make the damn pick as long as it is no more then the -110.
No prob.
The thing 99.999% of the people don't realize is that online sports betting isn't anything close to Las Vegas sports betting or street bookie sports betting.
The fundamentals are the same but the variables aren't even close. You aren't going to see the sports manager at the Mirage betting the sports book manager at the Hilton and then fucking with the lines based on their personal risk.
Shit like that are some of the things you can never predict when it comes to analyzing online data.
In the NFL especially, books do not like to move off key numbers if they can avoid it for multiple reasons 1), not to get middled. 2) To avoid giving an edge to teaser bettors (which unlike the untrue public perception, were a popular betting tool in certain scenarios for professionals).
Pay attention to the juice you are laying and follow this model:
Points are worth different amounts in different sports.
In general, a ½ point is worth 6 cents in basketball . . . so playing -2.5 -110 and -3 -104 would be equal bets.
Football, unless it is a key number, is 5 cents . . . the key number of 3 is worth 25 cents, and 7 & 10 our worth about 10 cents.