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Horse Racing News and Notes Saturday, December 23, 2017

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(@shazman)
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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, December 23, 2017 from various handicappers and websites

 
Posted : December 22, 2017 9:33 pm
(@shazman)
Posts: 58612
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At the Gate - Saturday
December 22, 2017
By Mike Dempsey
VegasInsider.com

We knocked down a couple of longshots on Friday which will make the last-minute Christmas shopping a bit easier.

Heavenly Score won the third race at the Big A yesterday as my top pick returning $21.20 but we whiffed on the exacta and trifecta.

But in the finale, we nailed Violent Delights on top at $19.00 and hit the exacta for $117.00 and the trifecta for $238.50, a nice way to close out the day.

We close out the holiday on Saturday with a good nine race card featuring a pair of stakes races, and then we are on a four-day holiday break, with racing resuming on Thursday Dec. 28 at Aqueduct.

The $100,000 Gravesand drew a field of eight that go six furlongs on the main track led by Threefiveindia, the 2-1 morning line favorite.

The Chad Brown trainee was a good second in the Fall Highweight Handicap (G3) in his last outing. He looks tough with his main foe likely being Great Stuff (7-2) who was fifth in the Fall Highweight but looks capable of better.

The $125,000 Queen’s County drew nine that will go 1 1/8 miles on the main track. Brown sends out the 3-1 morning line favorite Kurilov.

The Chile invader was fourth in his U.S. debut against $80,000 optional claimers. He was Group 1 placed in his native country and figures to move forward second off the bench.

I leaned to Watershed, who makes his second start off a four-month layoff for the Kiaran McLaughlin barn. He was fourth in the Richard Small at Laurel Park in his last outing.

There is rain in the forecast for Friday night into Saturday morning and there is a good chance we are dealing with an off track on Saturday at the Big A.

My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my eight strongest plays from Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park.

To purchase my Aqueduct and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here.

Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 $16,000N2L (12:20 ET)
#7 Peculiar Sensation 3-1
#3 Honor and Pleasure 2-1
#4 Ten Twenty Nine 6-1
#6 Adirondack Dream 10-1

Analysis: Peculiar Sensation goes turf to dirt as he makes his first start for the Handal barn. He checked in seventh last out against state bred Alw-1 foes and drops back in for a tag. He was fourth in the slop back in May against $40,000 non-winners of two. He catches a pretty weak group here. The barn is 44% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from turf to dirt.

Honor and Pleasure dueled for the early lead and could not get to the winner late in a runner up finish last out at Laurel Park in a race taken off the turf versus $12,500 non-winners of two. He broke his maiden on turf but has shown he can handle dirt. He makes his second start off a 2 1/2 month break here for the Albertrani barn that has been chilly at the meeting. Out of an Indian Charlie mare he should be able to handle a wet track.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 3,4,6,7
TRI: 3,7 / 3,4,6,7 / 1,34,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 7 The Gravesand (3:17 ET)
#7 Threefiveindia 2-1
#6 Great Stuff 7-2
#3 Life in Shambles 3-1
#4 Chief Lion 10-1

Analysis: Threefiveindia was my second choice in the Fall Highweight (G3) and he tracked the early pace, grabbed a short lead but was run down by Stallwalkin Dude. Two back in the Phoenix (G2) at Keeneland the colt tracked the early pace, attempted to split rivals in the stretch and got caught in tight and flattened out late. The third-place finisher Limousine Liberal came back to win the Bet On Sunshine at Churchill Downs on Nov. 18. He is 0 for 2 on wet tracks but the first was in a Grade 1 going long and he ran okay in a fourth-place finish in the mud back in June. He looks as if he will be tough in this spot and should get a good tracking trip sitting just off the pace.

Great Stuff also exits the Fall Highweight where he had to check in traffic at the 1/8 pole and was beaten three lengths in a fifth-place finish. The Jacobson trainee earned a career top speed fig two back going a mile. He has never been on a wet track but has a decent enough pedigree, by Quality Road out of a Hennessy mare.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 3,4,6,7
TRI: 6,7 / 3,4,6,7 / 2,3,4,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 10 Mr. Prospector G3 (4:37 ET)
#8 Quiljote 5-1
#6 X Y Jet 7-5
#3 Yourdreamsormine 12-1
#1 First Growth 6-1

Analysis: Quiljote makes his second start off the bench, a game winner of the Sunshine Millions Sprint Preview last out at GP West off a four-month break. He has landed in the exacta in 10 of his 15 career starts and should get a good tracking trip sitting just off the pace.

X Y Jet makes his first start in 13 months here for the Juice Man who is 42% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a +180 day layoff. He has landed in the exacta in 7 of 9 trips over the main track here including winning this race in '15 by 9 1/4 lengths. Solid looking works but is going to be a light price.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 1,3,6,8
TRI: 6,8 / 1,3,6,8 / 1,3,6,7,8

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R1: #6 Adirondack Dream 10-1
R2: #1 Alexander David 8-1
R4: #6 Ro Bear 12-1
R5: #8 Tusk 8-1
R6: #9 Soup Baby 12-1
R7: #4 Chief Lion 10-1
R8: #8 Alex the Terror 12-1
R9: #3 Soxy Ruby 8-1

Good luck today!

 
Posted : December 22, 2017 9:36 pm
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