Huge Sunday win for Vegas books
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com
Las Vegas sports books enjoyed their biggest win of the young NFL season during week 3, and by most reports around town, it's going to be hard to topple over the next 14 weeks. Almost every game fell the books' way, including winning four of the top five most lopsided one-way action sides by the public.
Last week, we thought it was a big deal when six of the seven underdogs that covered won outright. In week 3, 10 underdogs covered with a whopping eight teams winning straight-up. The favorites, the side the public loves to play, had a rough time of it, going 4-10 against-the-spread on the day.
The root game to the most popular parlay of the day had the 49ers laying 7-points at Minnesota. Between the media, oddsmakers and bettors forming their own opinion, the 49ers looked like an indestructible machine after wiping out the Packers and Lions in the first two weeks. Sports books were reporting ticket count ratios before the game that sided with the 49ers at over a 5-to-1 ratio between parlay cards and off-the-board action.
The only reason the sports books stayed at minus-7, and didn't go higher, was because some respected sharp money came in early during the week on the Vikings +7 and the straight bets didn't exceed the threshold. The massive public wagers was where most of the risk sat with a boiling, toxic mix of liability that extended to every other game on the schedule.
Had the 49ers won and covered, this entire story about the day would be much different. But they didn't. The Vikings jumped out early and controlled the entire game in an impressive 24-13 win.
In addition to the Vikings jump starting the day, the sports books also got gift wins from underdogs like the Titans, Chiefs, Jaguars, Raiders, Bengals and a last-minute field goal by the Buccaneers to cover 8-points in a 16-10 loss at Dallas.
The Chiefs' 27-24 overtime win in New Orleans as a 9-point 'dog also had the highest money-line payout of the day at plus-340, but not too many had that ticket in their pocket.
"We had a pretty good day with a lot of games going our way," said a very modest Jay Rood, MGM Resorts vice-president of race and sports. "The Vikings and Titans were our biggest games of the day. The games we did the worst on were the Cardinals and Falcons winning."
The Titans were improbable 44-41 winners in overtime against the Lions, but were only 4-point home underdogs.
In a surprising change of habit by the public, they bet the Falcons (+3) and Cardinals (+3) in the late games as if they were the favorite. The books went 2-2 against the public in the late games, but still filled the cashiers cage with more money seen on a Sunday night from the sports book this year because of no extended risk going into those games due to the majority of the early parlays being squashed.
"That Cardinals defense is amazing and the offense has also been very effective and efficient behind Kevin Kolb," said Rood. "I think a lot of the people in the betting public weren't quite sure what to make of the Cardinals after their win over the Patriots last week, but beginning Friday through kickoff, we saw a definite opinion on their behalf."
The Cardinals have now won 10 of their past 12 games dating back to last season. Arizona has started 3-0 for the first time since 1974, which is its best start since moving to Phoenix in 1988. Because they've covered all their games this season, they will be a very popular choice next Sunday when they host the Dolphins as 7-point favorites.
One of the biggest dilemmas a sports book annually deals with when booking the NFL games is if several of the teams aren't competitive, which allows bettors to keep hammering against them and forces the bookmaker to inflate their odds. Coming into week 3, we thought the Jaguars, Raiders, Chiefs, Titans and Browns might be a few of those reliable losers this season, but only the Browns proved us correct.
"I think what we're seeing is parity at it's best," said Rood. “The bettors have been guessing whether or not some of these teams are for real and have kind of been kept off-balance for these first few weeks."
Because of the parity, bettors' pocket books have been getting whacked. Through three weeks of action, we've almost seen it all. No matter how high the spread, whether on the road or at home, any team can win on any given Sunday. The only winless teams are the Saints and the Browns at 0-3, but at least the Browns are 1-1-1 ATS. The Saints and Lions, both somewhat respected teams that made the playoffs last season, are the only teams not to cover a spread this season.
"I'm glad I'm not betting the NFL myself, because it really is a hard league to figure out week to week," said Rood.
"I like where I'm at on this side of the counter."