IN PRIME WE TRUST - MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PRIME TIME SELECTION

Jacksonville +3.5

When looking at this game, I think the knee jerk reaction is to square away with the home favorite. However, this needs to be looked deeper as the more I scratch the surface, the more I have reservations about playing the home fave tonight in prime time.

Much has been made about the motivation to win this game. Yes, it's the first Monday Night Football game in Texans franchise history, and the closest thing their fans will get to a playoff game for at least another year. And yes, there will be no real motivation for the Jaguars to show up and play well on Monday night. However, despite these 2 obvious variables, neither team wants to fall to 4-8 tonight on the national stage. Neither team wants to be the lovable loser on Monday Night Football. That being said, motivation for this game is separate, but equal.

Houston is coming off a win over Cleveland, which gives them an edge in momentum right? But, who has Cleveland beat lately? Besides a Bills team that lost at home this past week to the 49'ers. Sure, they did win the MNF over the Giants earlier this season, which was clearly a trap for the New York Blue. However, both the Browns and the Bills have shown their true colors as they certainly don't deserve a playoff slot this year.

The Jags on the other hand have lost 2 consecutive games and 4 of their last 5 Jacksonville has played poorly, seems to lack chemistry, and has been weighed down by injuries and frequent mistakes. And yes, the Jags haven't beaten anyone either, except the Detroit Lions a week after they lost to the Bengals.

So, what's my point? The point is these 2 teams are virtually in the same boat walking into this Monday night game, so why the 3 point spread? Because of motivation? Because of revenge? Certainly could be the latter, the Jags did beat the Texans at home earlier this season in a close one. But, doesn't this also say the Del Rio knows this team a little?

Let me ask you a question. When was the last time Del Rio lost 2 in a row? He is 2-0 SU/ATS this season after 2 or more consecutive losses and 3-1 SU/ATS in this position last 3 years. There is a good chance this coach doesn't like losing 3 games in a road because his job depends on it. There is a much bigger chance that he has this team fired up to win this game tonight and enter the final stretch of the season on a positive note. Including this game, the Jags have 5 games to close the season which could spell a winning season despite missing the playoffs. Doesn't this serve as motivation for the poor Jaguars?

When it all comes down to it, this game is going to be close. This game features two losing squads with equal motivation to win this game. However, I am going to highlight one edge to the Jaguars that could turn into a major advantage as this game rolls on. I put heavy emphasis on QB play as you all know by now. The Texans have Sage Rosefels starting for them. A backup QB that has thrown for 9 interceptions in his last 4 games. A backup that already knows his number is up come next week when Schaub takes back the reigns. He will be against a defense that is pretty solid against the pass ranking 13th in the league in this category with 10 takeaways to boot. All they need is one interception tonight. One interception in Houston territory that will lead the Jaguars on a TD drive that puts them up by a TD. One little mistake, and your 3 point favorite could be busted. Now, when discussing QB's we also have to look at the Jaguars. We have David Gerrard. Not a Drew Brees or Tony Romo by any means. However, you get a solid QB that makes conservative decisions. A man who has 8 years of experience in the NFL and is a starting QB, not a backup. A man that has thrown less interceptions all year than Sage Rosenfels has in just 4 games as the fill in QB for a losing team. A man that is coming off a 2 interception performance that could be looking to bounce back in the spotlight. In any big game like this you must always consider the QB advantage and also get into the mindset of the QB. If the Jaguars get the lead, they will keep it by playing conservative football. I can't say the same for Sage Rosenfels and the Houston Texans.

Look, if this game were a pick em, the Texans would make sense. However, the line opened at 3.5 and has since dropped to 3 despite the betting public and the sharps pounding the Texans. Well folks, tonight I am taking the Jags +3.5, buying the cheap hook, and watching this game play out. I have a sneaky suspicion the Jaguars defense will create a few turnovers that will change the complexity of this game. If Houston wins, I don't see them winning by more than a field goal.

And remember to play this your normal per game percentage unit. Invest, don't gamble 😉

Good luck to all!