Northern Illinois (6-6, 6-5 ATS) vs. Louisiana Tech (7-5, 5-6 ATS) (at Shreveport, La.)
Two teams that finished the regular season with outright losses and barely met bowl eligibility get together when Northern Illinois travels south to meet Louisiana Tech, which will have a virtual home game playing an hour from its campus.
Louisiana Tech dropped its regular-season finale to Nevada 35-31 on Nov. 29, finishing in a three-way tie for second place in the Western Athletic Conference. That halted the Bulldogs’ four-game SU winning streak, but they cashed as a 4½-point home underdog to snap a two-game ATS slide. Louisiana Tech got a solid outing from QB Ross Jenkins (17 of 31, 258 yards, 2 TDs), but it blew a 31-21 lead by getting outscored 14-0 in the fourth quarter, and the Bulldogs defense allowed Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick to pass for 397 yards and four TDs.
The Huskies, who at 5-3 finished in the bottom half of the Mid-American Conference’s West Division, fell to non-conference foe Navy 16-0 as a three-point home chalk in their finale on Nov. 25. Northern Illinois finished 1-3 SU and 1-4 ATS down the stretch, and against the Midshipmen, QB Chandler Harnish threw for a mere 116 yards, and his two INTs were the game’s only turnovers.
Louisiana Tech is making its first bowl appearance in seven years and only its fifth overall (1-2-1 SU), most recently losing to Clemson 49-24 as a 6½-point pup in the 2001 Humanitarian Bowl. Northern Illinois, meanwhile, is in its fourth bowl game overall but its third in the past four years (1-1 SU and ATS). Back in 2006, the Huskies went to the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego and got blown out by TCU 37-7 as a 12-point underdog.
La. Tech’s offense averages 25.2 points and 352.2 total yards per game, including a solid 195.2 ypg on the ground (24th in the nation), paced by RBs Daniel Porter (1,086 yards, 8 TDs, 5.3 yards per carry) and Patrick Jackson (644 yards, 8 TDs, 4.7 ypc). Jenkins, who took over as the starting QB midway through the season, passed for 1,011 yards with seven TDs and three INTs.
Northern Illinois puts up 25.3 points and 335.1 ypg (173.1 rushing ypg), with five players rushing for at least 200 yards, led by Me’co Brown (508 yards, 2 TDs). Meanwhile, Harnish, a redshirt freshman, completed 98 of 171 passes for 1,342 yards, but his seven TDs were offset by seven INTs.
Defensively, the Bulldogs allow 24.8 ppg and 381.1 ypg. However, while La. Tech gives up just 101.3 rushing ypg, which ranks 11th nationally, it rates 117th out of 120 Division I-A teams in pass defense at 280 ypg allowed. As for the Huskies, they finished in the top 20 in three defensive categories, allowing 18.1 ppg (16th), 303.7 total ypg (20th) and 162.5 passing ypg (5th).
The Bulldogs have cashed in nine of their last 11 games against the MAC, but they are otherwise on ATS slides of 1-4 in December, 7-22-1 following a spread-cover and 7-20 in non-conference play. Along with their current 1-4 ATS skid overall, the Huskies are in pointspread ruts of 2-5 against winning teams and 5-12 as a favorite.
The over is 4-1 in La. Tech’s last five overall, but otherwise the under for the Bulldogs is on runs of 5-1 outside the WAC and 7-3 after a spread-cover, and the under for Northern Illinois is on stretches of 19-7-1 overall, 4-1 outside the MAC and 8-2 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Gametimepicks.com
Independence Bowl
By Judd Hall
There are 34 bowl games in total during this college football postseason. And while that number seems like a lot to digest for both bettors and oddsmakers alike, the lines have been clearly drawn during this time. The lone difference is this year’s Independence Bowl in Shreveport, Louisiana between Louisiana Tech and Northern Illinois.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened this game up to the sportsbooks as a pick ‘em, which is essentially better than flipping a coin with the total coming in at 49. Now the line has actually fluctuated from the Huskies being listed as 1½-point favorites to coming back down to a pick ‘em situation at several betting shops. The only we currently have from the bettors is the total moving down to 47 just prior to Christmas.
It’s easy to see why this game is too close to call for some when you look at the teams a bit closer.
Northern Illinois saw the Joe Novak era end with a whimper last year as they went 2-10 straight up and 5-6 against the spread. Enter former Southern Illinois coach Jerry Kill, who guided the Salukis to three 10-win seasons and five 9-win campaigns during seven years in Carbondale.
Kill also brought a new offense with him to DeKalb, the spread attack. While the spread offense is nothing new to fans of college football, it is new to NIU when you’re known best for being a run oriented squad.
The result in the new scheme was a surprising 5-3 start to the year. But the Huskies found themselves struggling against better quality opponents at the end of the season by losing to Ball State (45-14), Central Michigan (33-30) and Navy (16-0).
NIU also saw its future under center with redshirt freshman Chandler Harnish. The Bluffton, Indiana native completed 57.3 percent of his passes for 1,342 yards with seven touchdowns and seven interceptions in his first year. Not great numbers through the air, mind you. But Harnish is also effective at running the ball as evidenced by his gaining 478 yards this year on 108 carries and scoring another four touchdowns. He also received help from running back Me’co Brown and his 508 yards on 109 rushes for a pair of scores.
While the new-look Huskies pride themselves on being a dual threat, they could wind up being just one-dimensional against Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs proved just how adept they are at stopping the run by ranking 11th nationally in rush defense by surrendering 99.8 yards per game. A big reason that much success is having a 300-pound defensive tackle like D’Anthony Smith clogging the interior of the line with 64 tackles.
On the other side of the ball, the Bulldogs make no attempts in hiding the fact that they win with a punishing ground game. Louisiana Tech ranks 25th nationally in rushing yards by gaining 195.0 YPG 2008 thanks mostly to Daniel Porter being in the backfield. The junior from Baton Rouge has carried the ball 204 times for 1,086 yards and eight scores. He’ll be facing a NIU defensive unit that is allowing 141.2 YPG via the run this season, which ranks them 60th in the country.
If Porter isn’t able to help sustain drives for the Bulldogs, then they’ll be in a world of hurt. Louisiana Tech is gaining just 157.0 YPG through the air right now with redshirt sophomore Ross Jenkins under center. And while he steadily improved during the year, Jenkins will be staring down a Huskies secondary that is fifth in the nation in defending the pass by giving up a mere 162.5 YPG.
Making matters worse for LA Tech’s passing game is trying to find a way to stop senior defensive end Larry English from ending up in the backfield. English is 32nd in the country with eight sacks this year and will be going against blindside protection that is anchored by a redshirt sophomore left tackle Rob McGill. That could also help hinder the run game as NIU averages 6.3 tackles for a loss in 12 matches this year.
Even though there isn’t a set favorite at many of the betting shops, keep an eye on who could be tabbed in that spot late for a fade. Any team that is listed as the “chalk” has gone 14-8-1 SU in the Independence Bowl since 1985. Yet they’ve posted an unimpressive 10-13 record ATS during that time.
As for our combatants, Louisiana Tech is no stranger to visiting Shreveport for a postseason contest as this is its fourth Independence Bowl appearance. This game will be a tie breaker of sorts for the Bulldogs as they’re 1-1-1 SU in their last three matches at that location. It is their fifth bowl game in the schools history as well, but the first bowl outing since losing to Clemson in the 2001 Humanitarian Bowl.
This is the first time Northern Illinois is making its first trip to Shreveport, but they’re not all that unfamiliar with going to bowl games. After all, the Huskies are 2-1 SU and ATS in their last three postseason performances. Of course, they also got destroyed by TCU, 37-7, in their last bowl match…a trip to the 2006 Poinsettia Bowl.
ESPN will broadcast this contest at 8:15 p.m. EST.
vegasinsider.com
Independence Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech
Northern Illinois limped home, losing three of four and finishing 6-6 but they still earned a bowl bid. Louisiana Tech, meanwhile, won four of five to finish 7-5 and will shoot for an Independence Bowl win.
Odds aren't yet posted for this game, so check back later for the opening line and total.
Chandler Harnish went 14-of-24 for 116 yards with two picks for Northern Illinois in its 16-0 loss to Navy in Week 14.
Navy covered as 4-point road underdogs as the teams played under the 51-point total set by oddsmakers.
Ross Jenkins was 16-for-30 with 259 yards and two touchdowns for Louisiana Tech as they lost 35-31 to Nevada in Week 14.
The Bulldogs did cover the 5-point spread, while the final score played OVER the day's total of 61.
Team records:
Northern Illinois: 6-6 SU, 6-5 ATS
Louisiana Tech: 7-5 SU, 4-6-1 ATS
Northern Illinois most recently:
When playing in December are 1-2
When playing on turf are 6-4
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing outside the conference are 2-8
Louisiana Tech most recently:
When playing in December are 1-4
When playing on turf are 5-5
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the conference are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
Northern Illinois is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
Northern Illinois is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Louisiana Tech's last 5 games
Louisiana Tech is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
N ILLINOIS (6 - 6) vs. LOUISIANA TECH (7 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISIANA TECH is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
LOUISIANA TECH is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
LOUISIANA TECH is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
LOUISIANA TECH is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
Indepedence Bowl
Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech, 8:00 ET
Northern Illinois
14-5 Under off an Under
11-3 Under when the total is between 42.5 and 49
Louisiana Tech
4-13 ATS playing with 2+ weeks rest
6-0 Under on turf
WEST VIRGINIA vs. NORTH CAROLINA
West Virginia is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of West Virginia's last 6 games
North Carolina is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of North Carolina's last 9 games
What bettors need to know: Independence Bowl
By DOC'S SPORTS
Northern Illinois (6-6) vs Louisiana Tech (+1.5, 47)
A lack of bowl eligible teams from the SEC and Big 12 conferences this season has had a negative effect on the Independence Bowl, which is usually is a top late-December bowl game. Rather than inviting two teams from the two hottest conferences in the country this year, the SEC and Big 12, the Independence Bowl had to settle for a MAC team and a local team from the WAC. Louisiana Tech is basically playing a home game.
Line movement
The over has held steady at 47 while public action and has knocked Northern Illinois down from field goal favorites to giving 1.5 points.
The Husky roller coaster ride
NIU came out of the gate as one of the top bets in the country. It covered four consecutive spreads to start the season including a close call at Neyland Stadium, losing 13-9 to Tennessee as 16.5-point underdogs.
After the Tennessee loss, Northern Illinois won three straight conference games to get into the MAC title game discussion. However, a 45-14 thrashing by Ball State sent the Huskies into a late season tailspin.
The team dropped three of its last four games and failed to cover in four of the team’s last five contests. The season may have reached a low point after a 16-0 shutout loss to Navy in the regular season finale as 3-point favorites.
Home for the holidays
Louisiana Tech is used to staying home for bowl season. This year is no different. But fortunately for the Bulldogs they’ll be playing in a bowl game this time.
This marks Tech’s first postseason game since 2001.
Home has been where the wins are for La. Tech. After an opening season win over the Bulldogs of the SEC and Mississippi State as 7-point underdogs, La. Tech went on to finish 5-1 straight up (SU) at home and 4-1 ATS at home.
Will it come to pass?
Neither of the teams likes to pass the ball much but if the situation arises where a team will have to pass the ball the advantage swings drastically to the Northern Illinois’ corner. The Huskies pass defense ranks No. 5 in the NCAA while the Louisiana Tech secondary ranks as the third worst in the country.
Against the spread
Backers of both teams have traded money back-and-forth most of the season. Northern Illinois went 6-5 ATS this season while La. Tech was 5-6 ATS.
Bowl trends
The Independence Bowl has been a high-scoring affair lately with the favorite usually covering. The last three Independence Bowls all played over the total and the favorites are 4-1 ATS in the last five games.
Key stat
8-1
Since 1997 when the Independence Bowl hosts a team from Louisiana or a local state like Alabama or Mississippi, the home team is 8-1 including Alabama’s 30-24 win over Colorado last year.
The last Louisiana team to play in the bowl game was LSU in 1997. The Bayou Bengals were 27-9 victors over Notre Dame.