Initial Peek at A.F.C. Playoff Matchups
By JUDY BATTISTA
BALTIMORE (wild card, 6th seed) at NEW ENGLAND (East champion, 3rd seed)
Before the Ravens lost to the Patriots on Oct. 4, their offense was being hailed as nearly the explosive equal of the Patriots’, which to that point had struggled. The game was close — a 27-21 Patriots victory — but it sent Baltimore into a tailspin, largely because of its defense. The Ravens lost three in a row. Their offense has not been the same since, either, scoring big only against leaky defenses like the Lions’ and the Bears’.
No matter their record, is there any team that makes opponents more nervous in January than the Patriots? New England had looked to be rounding into playoff form, but losing receiver Wes Welker to a season-ending knee injury is devastating. The Ravens can focus on stopping Randy Moss. The Patriots have had problems with their secondary, and the pass rush has been less than effective against elite quarterbacks. If the Patriots can get a lead, Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco will be on the run. Still, this is not the Patriots’ best team by a long shot, and even if they get past the Ravens, Indianapolis and San Diego could scorch the secondary.
Player to watch: When Wes Welker has missed time this season, Tom Brady has struggled to find his rhythm and the Patriots have sputtered against the blitz, because the quick pass to Welker is the Patriots’ most reliable blitz buster.
JETS (wild card, 5th seed) at CINCINNATI (North champion, 4th seed)
Let’s forget for a second the Jets’ byzantine route to the playoffs. They have a powerhouse defense that did not get a true look at the Bengals on Sunday night. But are the Jets going to be able to score if they are forced to throw? The Bengals’ defense was ranked fourth going into Sunday night’s game and had been enlivened this year by the coordinator Mike Zimmer and the outstanding corners Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph. The Jets would prefer to keep the game on the ground with the league’s No. 1 running team and largely out of Mark Sanchez’s hands, as they did Sunday with the help of Brad Smith out of the Wildcat formation. Cincinnati will load up to stop the run, and then let the secondary do the work. The Jets are a true wild card — does anybody know which team is going to show up, the one that beat the Patriots in the second week of the season and the Bengals, or the one that lost to the Falcons just two weeks ago? .
Player to watch: With cornerback Darrelle Revis, the Jets are entirely capable of limiting a full-strength Bengals offense.
HAVE EARNED BYES
INDIANAPOLIS (South champion, 1st seed)
Well, at least the Colts will be well rested. The Colts’ history in 2005 and 2007 suggests they come out flat when they rest starters heading into a bye week, and anything less than a spot in the Super Bowl will open up the Colts to a lifetime of second-guessing.
SAN DIEGO (West champion, 2nd seed)
San Diego, the hottest team entering the playoffs, had the fifth-ranked passing offense going into the final game and the most balanced team this side of Minnesota. The Chargers are a nightmare matchup for their potential divisional opponent New England’s shaky secondary.