Inside Look at NFL Bye Weeks
By: Tom Stryker
Back in 1990, the NFL began using a bye-week in order to give teams a break from a lengthy 16-game schedule. The league actually decided to allow for two weeks in the 1993 season but shifted back to the 17-week schedule in 2004 and it has remained the same ever since.
Good sports handicappers always look for a new edge and, thanks to this rest factor, a number of excellent wagering opportunities have developed. Some might argue that these professional athletes are so fine tuned that a week off may not be as important as it is in the college game. I don't believe that's true. Any time you can give a banged up body a week to heal or an NFL team an extra week to prepare, there will be some benefits on the field. Let's take a look inside the numbers.
Overall, regular season teams coming off a week of rest sport a 338-319-12 ATS record. Obviously, there's not a lot of profit in that block of games. However, after some intensive research, I did discover four different areas that produced a great deal of success.
First, the knee-jerk reaction might be to take an NFL team running with a week of rest provided they check in off a blowout loss of 10 points or more. That's exactly what you don't want to do. Since 1990, pro teams in this situation are a soft 72-94-3 ATS including 31-44-2 ATS on foreign soil. If our guest is matched up against a foe that checks in with momentum off a SU and ATS win, this situation crashes to a dismal 10-22-2 ATS. Make that 3-14 ATS if the foe arrives off back-to-back SU and ATS victories.
Second, bye teams that are matched up against opponents that enter without momentum off a blowout loss of 10 points or more have performed quite well notching a profitable 85-64-1 ATS mark. Without the stresses of playing a division opponent, these teams improve to a superb 62-38 ATS provided they're tackling a non-division foe. Finally, if our rested team sports a won/loss percentage better than .400, this technical situation tightens up to a rewarding 37-18 ATS!
After ripping apart all of the non-division numbers you see above, I uncovered the third area of profitability. If our rested side enters with a ton of momentum off two or more straight up wins and is matched up against a non-division opponent, this situation zips to a sensational 70-46 ATS! That's not the best part. Favorites in this role are a blistering 52-25-1 ATS and are currently on a jaw-dropping 27-6 ATS run since December 3rd, 2000!
Last, but certainly not least, there is an area of success for teams coming off bye weeks that surrounds totals. Since 1990, NFL division hosts coming off a week of rest have recorded just 43 overs and 78 unders. If the posted total on this contest is 42.5 or less, the under improves to a juicy 56-27-1 ATS!
You've all heard the saying before that rest equals rust. Financially speaking for a sports investor that's certainly not the case especially with the four specific areas that are broken down above. There are plenty of teams that will be coming off byes in the NFL in the weeks to come. Make sure you refer to this article often to find those hidden gems! Best of luck, TS.