Inside The Stats... Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics
By Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com
Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.
Here are this week’s findings…
Puttin’ on the Stats
With Halloween now in the rear view mirror, it’s on to the best time of the college football season – the month of November!
That’s because the combination of stats and angles combine to bring us the best winning edges of the year.
Our “Puttin’ On The Stats” theory is a dandy, and best of all it’s simple and it wins.
What we are looking to do from this point of the season out is to ‘Play On’ any team as a dog if they’ve won all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS (In The Stats) season-to-date.
Conversely, we will look to ‘Play Against’ any favorite that has lost all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS.
As we head toward Thanksgiving, here’s this year’s list of ‘Play On’ (as underdog) and ‘Play Against’ (as favorite) teams to fatten up on for the balance of the 2013 season:
Play On Dogs
*Arizona State
*Baylor
*BYU
Cincinnati
East Carolina
*Florida State
Georgia
Louisville
*Michigan State
Northern Illinois
Ohio State
Oklahoma
*Oregon
Virginia Tech
*Western Kentucky
Play Against Favorites
Central Michigan
Connecticut
Eastern Michigan
Florida International
Idaho
Kansas
*Miami-Ohio
New Mexico State
Purdue
Southern Miss
Temple
UMass
USF
UTEP
Important: An *asterisk indicates the team is either 100% -or- 0% ITS this season. Once an underdog loses the stats a second time, or a favorite wins the stats for the second time during the season, they immediately come off the list.
There you have it. Now pass the gravy and let the November feast begin.
Show Me The Money
It’s all about the money when it comes to betting the games.
Heading into this week’s action here is a list of the top money-makers and money-breakers and their ATS records in College Football (versus FBS foes) and the NFL this season:
College Best Dogs: South Alabama (4-0), Auburn (3-0), Houston (3-0), Georgia State (5-1), and Temple (5-1).
College Worst Dogs: UTEP (0-6), Eastern Michigan (1-7), Arkansas (1-5) and Southern Miss (1-5).
College Best Favorites: Wisconsin (5-0), Buffalo (4-0), Minnesota (3-0), Oregon (6-1), Baylor (5-1) and North Texas (5-1).
College Worst Favorites: Troy (0-4), Georgia (1-6-1), Fresno State (1-5-1) and Tulsa (1-5).
NFL Best Dogs: Dallas (4-0) and Indianapolis (3-0).
NFL Worst Dogs: Atlanta (0-4), Pittsburgh (0-3) and Jacksonville (1-7).
NFL Best Favorites: San Francisco (6-1).
NFL Worst Favorites: Houston (0-3).
Vinegar And Oil
While they gone the way of 8-track players and typewriters of late, our ‘leaking oil’ theory (playing against favorites who have lost the stats in each of their previous three games) finds the following teams going out as creaky chalk this week:
NCAAFB: Boston College, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, New Mexico
NFL: Indianapolis and Pittsburgh.
These plays now stand at 13-16 ATS overall this season, including 9-11 in CFB and 4-5 in the NFL.
This week’s plays would be against Air Force and Rutgers on the college gridiron, along with Indianapolis in the NFL.
Over Powering
There have been 72 ‘OVERS’, 58 ‘UNDERS’ and 2 TIES this season in the NFL.
On the heels of another commanding 4-0 performance last week, non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC) have been solid gold. These games have gone 31-11 OVER (73%).
This week’s potential non-conference OVERS would be:
Jacksonville at Tennessee
Oakland at NY Giants
St. Louis at Indianapolis
Houston at Arizona
Miami at Tampa Bay
Stat Of The Week
Alabama has outscored opponents, 151-0, in the first half of its last six games.