Inside The Stats
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.
Here are this week’s findings…
7 Come 11
Game 11 of the college football season signals many things. For teams with six or more wins, it’s one step closer to a probable bowl bid. However, teams languishing below .500 are likely to be home for the holidays.
So it is, too, for Game 11 non-winners that ended the previous season with 7 or more wins who are playing today off two losses-exact. Our best advice for these teams is to bend over and kiss it goodbye, as these losers have a better chance of learning how to navigate the government health care website than enhancing their bowl chances.
That’s because these 7-plus game winners last year who enter Game 11 this year off two losses-exact with a .500 or less record are 18-38-1 ATS since 1980.
San Jose State will assume the role this week. And for what it’s worth, home teams are 8-23 ATS, including 2-14 ATS when they are allowing 26 or more PPG on the season.
While 7 and 11 are winning numbers in the first roll at a craps table, together they are losers on the college gridiron.
Last Home Games
With the 2013 college football season heading to the wire, one of our favorite handicapping ploys is now in play, mainly Last Home Games.
For some teams it’s a proud sendoff for seniors who have dedicated their career to success. For others it’s the final curtain on a disappointing season.
From our powerful database listed below are the teams that have met with the best and worst point-spread success in LHG’s (Last Home Games).
All results are ATS (Against The Spread) and are most recent trends with a minimum of five occurrences. Enjoy.
Best LHG’s
Arkansas 6-0
Colorado 7-0
North Carolina State 5-0
Nevada 5-0-1
New Mexico 6-1
Rice 7-1
South Carolina 6-0
Stanford 5-1
Worst LHG’s
Buffalo 1-7
Clemson 1-6
Florida Atlantic 1-7
Idaho 1-5-1
Louisville 0-5
LSU 1-8
Miami, Fl. 1-5
Michigan 1-6-1
Missouri 0-6
In The Stats
Football teams who have been out gained in each of their last three games are considered to be ‘leaking oil’ when installed as favorites in this condition.
These ‘leaking oil’ favorites now stand at 18-22 ATS overall this season, including 13-15 in CFB and 5-7 in the NFL.
This week’s plays would be against:
NCAAFB: Central Michigan, Duke, Illinois, Iowa State, Temple, Tennessee, Tulsa and Wyoming
NFL: Kansas City
Overwhelming
Each week, we keep tabs throughout the season on Over/Under scoring tendencies in the NFL. And as reported in this column for the past few weeks, the success of OVERS has been outstanding in non-conference games.
After yet another outstanding 3-1 execution of the bookmakers last week, these non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC) are now 38-12 (76%) OVER this season, including a jaw-dropping 14-1 OVER the last four weeks.
This week’s potential non-conference OVERS would be -- Arizona at Indianapolis, Carolina at Miami
Stat Of The Week
New England has been favored in each of its last 75 games in a row at home.