Inside the Stats - Week 12
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
With Mississippi State knocked off its perch, the frenzy continues in the drive to stay alive in this year’s college football playoff poll. And with it the question begs: Will a 2-loss team somehow make the playoffs? We’ll know more in a few weeks.
Until then let’s review teams and their season-to-date performances from a statistical perspective while also analyzing last week’s football games.
Remember, all results are ATS (Against the Spread) in games played this season through Monday, November 17th, unless noted otherwise.
OIL AND VINEGAR
Each week on the football card each we isolate favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.
We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s potential Pennzoil favorites.
NCAAFB: Hawaii and Utah
NFL: Atlanta and Kansas City
PUTTIN’ ON THE STATS
Keeping up with our look at teams who have either dominated, or been dominated, In The Stats (ITS) this season, let’s turn to the teams that still quality on ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ list.
What we are looking to do from this point of the season out is to ‘Play On’ any team as a dog if they’ve won all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS (In The Stats) season-to-date. Conversely, we will look to ‘Play Against’ any favorite that has lost all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS.
As we head toward Thanksgiving, and with the list shortening by the week, here’s this year’s current list.
ALERT – of ‘Play On’ (as dog) and ‘Play Against’ (as favorite) teams to fatten up on for the balance of the 2014 season:
Play On Dogs: Baylor, Boise State, East Carolina, Georgia Tech, *Marshall, Mississippi State, *Ohio State, TCU, Western Michigan and Wisconsin.
Play Against Favorites: Connecticut, *Eastern Michigan, Florida International, Kent State, North Carolina, *SMU, Vanderbilt and Wake Forest.
Important: An *asterisk indicates the team is either 100% or 0% ITS this season. Once a favorite loses the stats a second time, or a dog wins the stats for the second time during the season, they are immediately eliminated from the list.
This week we find Western Michigan in the ‘Play On’ dog list, with no teams appearing on the ‘Play Against’ favorite list.
GOING INSIDE THE STATS
These are the teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game. Note – there are no plays in the NFL.
This week includes:
NCAAFB: Hawaii
On the flip side, these are the teams playing this week who lost phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but out-gained their opponent by 100 or more yards in their last game:
NCAAFB: San Jose State
FYI: There is one game on the college card this week that finds one team off an ‘inside-out’ SU win/Stat loss taking on a foe off a SU loss/Stat win – Duke versus North Carolina.
TRENDING IN THE NFL THIS WEEK
The Atlanta Falcons are 1-10 SU and ATS in the first of back-to-back home games versus a winning opponent.
The Baltimore Ravens are 7-1 SU and ATS on Monday Nights versus NFC opponents.
Dallas is 0-6 SU and ATS when favored versus a division opponents playing with triple revenge-exact (from losses in last three meetings), and also 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS on Sunday nights versus an opponent off a pair of SU losses.
The Houston Texans are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five meetings with the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Kansas City Chiefs are 1-11 ATS as favorites in the first of back-to-back division games.
The New York Giants are 8-1 SU and ATS on Sunday nights off a pair of SU losses.
STAT OF THE WEEK
The Buffalo Bills are 2-17 SU and 1-18 ATS in games after playing the Miami Dolphins when facing an opponent off a SU win.