Inside the Stats - Week 2
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
It was Mark Twain who once said, “There are three kinds of lies – Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics.”
With Week One of the 2014 NFL season, and two weeks of college football action, now in the history book it’s time to examine how the games have been actually played on the field, as opposed to the scoreboard, from both an ‘ATS’ (Against The Spread) and a statistical ‘ITS’ (Inside The Stats) perspective.
Note that all results are ATS in games played this season through Monday, September 8th unless noted otherwise.
The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
With two games under the belt for most college football teams let’s examine the relevant offensive and defensive stats compiled season to date.
Because we like to compare apples-to-apples, these are total yardage numbers compiled with a minimum of two games played against FBS teams only. No FCS contest results are used.
Good Offenses – Yards Per Game
-- Arizona 621, Alabama 579, Auburn 554, Western Kentucky 554
Bad Offenses – Yards Per Game
-- SMU 170.5, Florida Atlantic 172.5, Vanderbilt 222.5
Ugly Offense – Points Per Game
-- SMU 3, Florida Atlantic 3.5, Vanderbilt 5
Good Defenses – Yards Per Game
-- Penn State 261.5, Texas 261.5, La Monroe 268
Bad Defenses – Yards Per Game
-- Florida Atlantic 702, Fresno State 613.5, Rice 576
Ugly Defense – Points Per Game
-- Fresno State 55.5, Florida Atlantic 48.0, Rice 48.0
Inside the Stats
Football games are won on the field and the scoreboard. The gambling public reacts more to the score than the stats inside the game.
Finding teams who outplayed they opponent in the stats but lost the game and, conversely, those who won the game but lost the stats is an added edge that can help you when it comes to handicapping the games each week.
With that, here are the teams who won ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) last week; won the game but were out-gained by 100 or more yards:
College Football: USC and Virginia
These are the teams who lost ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) last week; lost the game but out-yarded their opponent by 100 or more yards:
College Football: Miami (Ohio) and Stanford
There were no such occurrences in the NFL.
In closing, here are the games this week involving ‘double inside-out’ stat results from last week – or teams off a phony SU win but stat loss playing an opponent off a SU loss but a stat win, with the phony loser listed first:
College Football: Army-Stanford and Virginia Tech-East Carolina
NFL: San Francisco-Chicago
It’s What’s Trending
From a weekly NFL column I am writing in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are the hottest trends on this week’s card supplied by my well-oiled machine, the database:
Baltimore is 14-1 SU at home in games off a loss, including 5-0 SU and ATS the last five.
Carolina is just 5-15 SU and 5-14-1 ATS in home openers since entering the league, including 0-8-1 ATS as a favorite.
Chicago is a mind-boggling 0-11-1 ATS in games after battling an AFC opponent, and also 0-8 SU and ATS in its last eight games in San Francisco.
Dallas is a dazzling 9-0 ATS as a dog in its last nine AFC tilts.
Miami is a meager 4-19 SU and 2-20-1 ATS in division games off a win when facing a foe off a SU underdog win.
Stat Of The Week
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is 10-0 SU and ATS in games off a loss in his NFL career.