Inside the Stats - Week 5
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
Week Five of the 2014 NFL season is here and with it only two teams remain undefeated – Arizona and Cincinnati, both of whom avoided the grim reaper with Bye Weeks.
As we do each week, let’s take a deeper look inside the stats and analyze the numbers to date.
Remember, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in games played this season through Monday, Sept. 29 unless noted otherwise.
By Land or by Air
With September in the rear view mirror, here are the leading college football offensive and defensive rushing and passing stats complied season to date against FBS teams only with a minimum of three game results. Stats compiled in FCS games are excluded.
Best Passing Offense Yards Per Game:
1. Washington State 481
2. Western Kentucky 462
3. West Virginia 402
Worst Passing Offense Yards Per Game:
1. Eastern Michigan 83
2. New Mexico 90
3. Navy 91
Best Rushing Offense Yards Per Game:
1. Wisconsin 402
2. Nebraska 395
3. Navy 358
Worst Rushing Offense Yards Per Game:
1. Wake Forest 13
2. SMU 44
3. Kent State 44
Looking Inside the Stats
As you know, football games are won on the field and the scoreboard. To re-iterate, gambling public reacts more to the score than the stats inside the game.
Here are the phony teams playing this week who won phony ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) in their last game; won the game but were out-gained by 100 or more yards:
College Football: Air Force, BYU, and Nevada.
NFL: Green Bay Packers.
These are the teams playing this week who lost phony ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) in their last game; lost the game but out-yarded their opponent by 100 or more yards:
College Football: Boise State and San Jose State.
FL: Chicago Bears and St. Louis Rams.
FYI: there is one game on this week’s card involving ‘double inside-out’ stat results from last week – or teams off a phony SU win but stat loss playing an opponent off a SU loss but a stat win: Boise State vs. Nevada.
Who’s Hot And Who’s Not
From my weekly NFL column in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends surrounding this week’s card from my all-knowing database:
Atlanta Falcons head coach Mike Smith is 16-3 ATS in his NFL career in games off a loss of eight or more points, including 10-3 SU and 13-0 ATS if his squad’s win percentage is .400 or greater.
The Chicago Bears are 2-0 SU and ATS in games in which they have been out-gained this season. Chicago is 0-2 SU and ATS in games in which they have out-gained their opponents.
Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler is 0-4 ATS in his NFL career as a dog versus opponents off back-to-back losses by an average loss of 15 points per game.
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton is 18-6 SU and ATS In his NFL career in games off a win when facing a non-division opponent, including 6-0 ATS during the first four games of the season.
The Detroit Lions held their first three opponents to season low yards this campaign. They held the New York Jets to a 2nd low yardage mark last week.
St. Louis Rams head coach Jeff Fisher is 91-62-1 ATS as an underdog. He has faced Philadelphia only once in his NFL career, defeating the Eagles 31-13 as a 13-point underdog in 2006.
STAT OF THE WEEK
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is 0-5 SU and ATS in his last five games versus winless opponents.