Inside the Stats - Week 6
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
A wild and wooly week of college football action saw six of the top eight ranked teams lose in the same week for the first time ever in AP poll history.
That sets the table for this week’s treatise as we prepare to go ‘inside the stats’ on last week’s football games.
As we analyze the numbers to date it’s important to remember that all results are ATS (Against the Spread) in games played this season through Monday, October 6th, unless noted otherwise.
TALE OF THE TAPE
With September in the rear view mirror, here are the leading college football offensive and defensive rushing and passing stats complied season to date against FBS teams only with a minimum of three game results. Stats compiled in FCS games are excluded.
Best Offense Yards per Game
1. East Carolina 581
2. Western Kentucky 576
3. Arizona 574
Worst Offense Yards per Game
1. Wake Forest 178
2. Eastern Michigan 189
3. South Florida 233
Best Defense Yards per Game
1. Louisville 219
2. Stanford 262
3. Alabama 265
Worst Defense Yards per Game
1. Bowling Green 610
2. California 606
3. UNLV 589
GOING INSIDE THE STATS
According to last week’s game stats, here are the hoax teams playing this week who won phony ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) in their last game, but were out-gained by 100 or more yards (witness BYU last week):
NCAAFB: California, South Florida
NFL: Philadelphia Eagles.
These are the teams playing this week who lost bogus ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) in their last game, meaning they lost the game lost the game but out-yarded their opponent by 100 or more yards:
NCAAFB: Houston Cougars and Washington State
NFL: St. Louis Rams (2nd straight game)
FYI: There is one game on this week’s card involving ‘double inside-out’ stat results from last week – or teams off a phony SU win but stat loss playing an opponent off a SU loss but a stat win: Idaho vs. Georgia Southern.
HOT TRENDS
From my weekly NFL column in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends surrounding this week’s card from my all-knowing database:
The Minnesota Vikings are 11-1 ATS at home off a loss of 20 or more points, including 5-0 ATS in division games.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 8-0 SU and ATS away in games after facing the Jacksonville Jaguars.
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is 8-0 SU and ATS in his last eight division games after winning SU as an underdog the previous game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Lovie Smith is 0-7 ATS in his NFL career as a non-division dog in games in which his team owns a losing record.
Defending Super Bowl losers (read: Denver Broncos) are 1-9 ATS versus non-division opponents that scored 3 or fewer points in its previous game.
Defending Super Bowl champions (read: Seattle Seahawks) are just 7-9 SU and 3-13 ATS home after a Monday Night game, including 0-5 SU and ATS the last five games.
STAT OF THE WEEK
The Cincinnati Bengals are 11-0 SU and ATS in their last eleven regular season home games.