Inside the Stats - Week 7
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
There’s a new team atop the college football leaderboard and strangely its name does not start with an ‘A’ or an ‘F’. It’s the upstart Mississippi State Bulldogs, winners of three straight games over Top 10 ranked opponents.
With that its time to go ‘inside the stats’ as we review teams’ season-to-date performances from a statistical perspective while also honing in on last week’s football games.
Remember, it’s important to remember that all results are ATS (Against the Spread) in games played this season through Monday, Oct. 13, unless noted otherwise.
LEAKING OIL
It’s that time of the year when we ferret out favorites on the football card each we that have been out-gained in each of their last three contests.
We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s vinegary favorites.
NCAAFB: Air Force, BYU, Cincinnati, Idaho, Oklahoma, Syracuse, Texas State, Tulsa and Utah.
NFL: No qualifying teams this week but note the following teams are riding serious ITS - In The Stats - losing streaks: Carolina (5), Houston (6), NY Jets (4) and Tampa Bay (6).
LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS
According to last week’s game stats there were an abundance of teams who won phony ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game:
NCAAFB: Appalachian State, Arkansas, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Northwestern, Ohio, Texas and Texas A&M.
On the flip side, these are the teams playing this week who lost phony ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game:
Alabama, Bowling Green, Duke, Minnesota, Mississippi and Oklahoma State.
There were no such teams in the NFL.
DOUBLE INSIDE OUT
From the bevy of phony ‘inside-out’ games last week, here the matchup of a positive stat loser facing a negative stat winner. The Stat winner is listed first:
NCAAFB: Texas A&M vs. Alabama, Northwestern vs. Nebraska and Ohio vs. Akron
NFL: Washington vs Tennessee
HOT TRENDS
From my weekly NFL column in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends surrounding this week’s card from my all-knowing database:
The Buffalo Bills are 21-2 ATS in games after facing the New England Patriots when facing a losing team.
The Dallas Cowboys are 8-0 SU and ATS in their 4th home game of the season when facing a division opponent.
The Carolina Panthers are 7-0 ATS when seeking revenge against NFC North teams.
The Miami Dolphins are 1-10 SU and ATS in Game Six of the season.
The Seattle Seahawks are 7-0 ATS in games after dueling with Dallas.
Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler is 2-12-1 ATS at home off a SU win versus an opponent off a SU loss.
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS on Thursdays.
Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is 9-0 ATS as a favorite of more than 3 points in games off a SU double-digit loss versus an opponent off a SU loss.
.700 or greater NFL away teams who played to a tie the previous week (read: Cincinnati Bengals) are 0-5 SU and ATS.
STAT OF THE WEEK
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 15-0 SU at home on Monday nights, including 6-0 ATS when not favored by 6 or more points.