Inside the Stats - Week 8
By Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com
Holding down four of the top five spots in the current AP Poll, the SEC has immortalized itself as the premier conference in college football today. Most surprising is that Mississippi State and Ole Miss have lapped past Georgia and LSU in this year’s race to the top.
With that its time to go ‘inside the stats’ as we review teams’ season-to-date performances from a statistical perspective while also analyzing last week’s football games.
Remember, it’s important to remember that all results are ATS (Against the Spread) in games played this season through Monday, Oct. 20, unless noted otherwise.
PENNZOIL PLAYS
It’s that time of the year when we ferret out favorites on the football card each we that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.
We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s potential Pennzoil favorites.
NCAAFB: Missouri and Utah.
NFL: Tampa Bay and Tennessee.
LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS
Once again there were an abundance of teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game. Those teams playing this week include:
NCAAFB: Ball State, Kansas State, Missouri and North Carolina.
NFL: New York Jets and Seattle Seahawks.
On the flip side, these are the teams playing this week who lost phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but out-gained their opponent by 100 or more yards in their last game:
NCAAFB: Central Michigan, Georgia Tech, and Virginia.
NFL: New England Patriots and St. Louis Rams.
Note: from the teams above there is one matchup this week involving a ‘Double Inside Out’ showdown: North Carolina vs. Virginia
STAYING PERFECT
We find the following teams perfect ITS (Inside the Stats) this football season. You might be surprised at who you find on these lists.
NCAAFB: 100% ITS Teams
Arizona, East Carolina, Marshall and Ohio State
NCAAFB: 0% ITS Teams
Eastern Michigan, SMU and Vanderbilt
Note: Only one team in the NFL is perfect ITS in every game this season, Tampa Bay. The Bucs have been outgained in all six of their games.
HOT TRENDS
From my weekly NFL column in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends surrounding this week’s card from my all-knowing database:
The Atlanta Falcons are 14-1 SU and 13-1-1 ATS before back-to-back away games.
The Carolina Panthers are 10-0 ATS at home off a double-digit SU loss when hosting NFC West division opponents.
The Miami Dolphins are 1-6 SU and ATS as favorites with a .500 record.
The San Diego Chargers are 8-0-1 ATS as visitors the last nine games at Mile High Stadium in Denver.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six meetings with the Minnesota Vikings.
Dallas Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett is 9-0 SU but 1-8 ATS as a division home favorite of seven or more points.
New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is 5-0 SU and ATS at home in his NFL career after playing a Thursday game.
Oakland Raiders head coach Tony Sparano is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS as a road ‘dog versus an opponent off a SU loss.
New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees is 10-1 SU and ATS at home in non-division games off a SU non-division loss.
STAT OF THE WEEK
The New Orleans Saints are 22-1 SU and 20-3 ATS in their last twenty-three home games under Sean Payton.