Inside the Stats - Week 9
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
The first poll from the playoff committee was released Tuesday evening and with it the controversy starts.
While the debate continues we’ll continue to pour through the stats as we review teams’ season-to-date performances from a statistical perspective while also analyzing last week’s football games.
Keep in mind it’s important to remember that all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in games played this season through Monday, Oct. 27, unless noted otherwise.
PUTTIN’ ON THE STATS
With Halloween now in the rear view mirror, it’s on to the best time of the College Football season – the month of November!
That’s because the combination of stats and angles combine to bring us the best winning edges of the year. Our ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ theory is a dandy, and best of all it’s simple and it wins.
What we are looking to do from this point of the season out is to ‘Play On’ any team as a dog if they’ve won all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS (In The Stats) season-to-date. Conversely, we will look to ‘Play Against’ any favorite that has lost all – or all but one – of their games in total yards ITS.
As we head toward Thanksgiving, here’s this year’s list from our ‘Play On’ (as dog) and ‘Play Against’ (as favorite) teams to fatten up on for the balance of the 2014 season:
Play On Dogs: Alabama, Arizona, Auburn, Baylor, Boise State, *East Carolina, Georgia Tech, Louisville, *Marshall, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Nebraska, Notre Dame, *Ohio State, TCU, Virginia, Western Michigan and Wisconsin.
Play Against Favorites: Connecticut, *Eastern Michigan, Florida International, Kent State, North Carolina, *SMU, Texas State, Troy, UNLV, *Vanderbilt and Wake Forest.
Important: an *asterisk indicates the team is either 100% or 0% ITS this season. Once a favorite loses the stats a second time, or a dog wins the stats for the second time during the season, they are immediately eliminated from the list.
To kick off the festivities this week we find Arizona, Auburn, Louisville (Thursday) and Virginia on the ‘Play On’ dog list; Texas State, UNLV and Vanderbilt on the ‘Play Against’ favorite list.
There you have it. Now pass the gravy and let the November feast begin
OIL HAZARDS
Each week on the football card each we isolate favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.
We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s potential Pennzoil favorites.
NCAAFB: Penn State, Texas State, UNLV and Vanderbilt.
NFL: There are no plays in the NFL this week.
LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS
Once again there were a handful of teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game. Those teams playing this week include:
NCAAFB: Duke and Illinois
NFL: Arizona Cardinals
On the flip side, these are the teams playing this week who lost phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but out-gained their opponent by 100 or more yards in their last game:
NCAAFB: Florida and Oklahoma
NFL: Philadelphia Eagles
HOT TRENDS
From my weekly NFL column in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends surrounding this week’s card from my all-knowing database:
The Arizona Cardinals are 11-1 ATS versus the NFC East.
The Cincinnati Bengals are 1-9-2 ATS versus losing opponents seeking triple revenge exact.
The Indianapolis Colts are 8-1-1 ATS versus opponents seeking double revenge-exact.
The Miami Dolphins are 2-14 ATS as home favorites between away games.
The Kansas City Chiefs are 0-9 ATS as home favorites off a home game.
The New Orleans Saints are 7-0 ATS in games after facing the Green Bay Packers, but 0-6-2 ATS on Thursdays.
STAT OF THE WEEK
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is 7-1 ATS as a home underdog in his NFL career. The only loss was to Peyton Manning in 2005.