Intriguing carryover system in CFL opener

Intriguing carryover system in CFL opener
By: Steve Makinen

The 2010 CFL season opens on Thursday, Canada Day, with a rematch of the 2009 Grey Cup title game between Montreal and Saskatchewan. The Alouettes are the defending league champs, having survived a tight 28-27 thrilling championship contest, but the host Roughriders are back and hungry after spending the last seven months thinking about what might have been. Interestingly, a nice carryover angle from FoxSheets, along with a pair of strong trends reveal that Saskatchewan has a good shot at payback, playing as 3-point dogs according to Sportsbook.com.

The betting system you’ll want to consider as you analyze Thursday’s game focuses on how well Montreal played down the stretch last season and reads as follows:

# Play Against - Favorites (MONTREAL) - first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games, team that had a winning record last season. (29-8 since 1996.) (78.4%, +20.2 units. Rating = 2*)

En route to the Grey Cup title, the Alouettes outscored opponents by 15.7 points per game, and they were easily the league’s best club in both points scored and allowed. But if they win the Grey Cup again in 2010, this could be the last of the Popp/Trestman duo in Montreal. On the surface, there’s little reason to believe the Alouettes won’t be as good as last year with Anthony Calvillo back under center. There is one offensive concern, as Bryan Chiu, the anchor of the line having announced his retirement on the first day of training camp. Head coach Marc Trestman is back for 2010 as well, and knows his team will be the “hunted” all season long, making a repeat a tough proposition.

The Roughriders feel they have unfinished business to attend to in 2010. What’s best is that Saskatchewan has no QB controversy going into the season, music to head coach Ken Miller's ears. Darian Durant (N. Carolina) squashed all doubters last season and looks to continue to improve under the direction of new offensive coordinator Doug Berry. Durant will continue to throw to the 'Canadian Air Force' of receivers Andy Fantuz, Rob Bagg, Chris Getzlaf, and Jason Clermont, who combined for 190 receptions and 2,537 yards last season. There is some concern on defense though after the team lost pass-rushing defensive ends John Chick and Stevie Baggs in the offseason without any replacements made from outside the organization. The defense was ranked just 4th in points allowed last season, two spots worse than the offense, so that unit needed to improve for this team to reach championship level.

Historically, Saskatchewan has been a great bet early in the season:

# SASKATCHEWAN is 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) in the first month of the season since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 26.2, OPPONENT 26.6 - (Rating = 1*)

The Roughriders have also been nearly automatic as a short home underdog:

# SASKATCHEWAN is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 28.7, OPPONENT 22.3 - (Rating = 2*)

With most power rating type analysis showing that Montreal should be favored by at least 4-5 points, you have to wonder whether or not oddsmakers know that Saskatchewan will be “extra motivated” here.

Following the Montreal-Saskatchewan contest, Toronto and Calgary wrap up the holiday offering north of the border.