I was there a few times a great scene and day of races(from what I can remember :)…post your picks
Churchill Downs Oaks Day FULLCARD Hotlist - May 5
May. 04, 2023
By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (6) Destine to Race showed nice speed when stretched out and can post a maiden win here. (5) Beach Walkn should relish the added distance. (8) Back to Gridlock should be well-suited by the conditions. (1) Lady Emily Kathryn will benefit from a rail trip.
2nd race – (9) Undervalued Asset disappointed in the Davona Dale Stakes but can bonce back here. (11) Vahva was a game second the last time and looks like the main foe. (2) Padma will welcome a return to dirt. (6) Grove looked good in a victorious debut.
3rd race - (10) Whisper Not had a troubled trip last time and can bounce back with a winning effort here. (6) Point Me By was second in his last two starts and can complete the exacta again. (1) Smokin’ T fits in nicely here. (12) Siege of Boston has sharp early speed but breaks from a rough post.
4th race – (4) Not So Close has enough speed to lead throughout. (7) Heartyconstitution was second in her last two starts at this distance. (3) Lisette may contend with the addition of Johnny V. (8) Music Street should be a contender in her 2023 debut.
5th race – Alysheba Stakes (G2) - (4) West Will Power can control the pace and the race in this field. (2) Last Samurai is in career-best form and is the one to fear. (1) Art Collector will be a factor on his best try. (3) Rich Strike is best known for running at Churchill Downs on Derby Weekend.
6th race – Modesty Stakes (G3) (7) Shantisara returned to her winning ways last time and can continue on a winning roll. (6) McKulick seems poised for a big 4-year-old campaign. (2) Didia is unbeaten in the U.S. and cannot be ignored. (5) Lady Rockstar should be a threat in the final furlong.
7th race – Eight Belles Stakes (G2) - (9) Munnys Gold won powerfully last time and will be extremely formidable in this field. (8) Accede will be tested for class after a maiden win. (3) Olivia Twist will appreciate the cutback in distance. (6) Red Carpet Ready faltered last time but fits better at this distance.
8th race – (11) Caravel is a Breeders’ Cup winner on a three-race win streak and should make it four here. (1) Bay Storm should work out a good trip from the rail. (8) Oeuvre can rebound after a poor try last time. (9) Little Jewel can bounce back after a tough trip last time.
9th race – La Troienne Stakes (G1) - (4) Secret Oath is back in top form and was good enough to win the Kentucky Oaks last year. (2) Search Results seems primed for a big 2023 campaign. (9) Pauline’s Pearl will be a factor on her best try. (7) Society had a useful comeback race and should be fit for this try.
10th race – Edgewood Stakes (G2) - (3) Cairo Consort has a late kick that will be boosted by some added distance here. (5) Preliminary was a sharp debut winner and cannot be discounted. (6) Mission of Joy seeks a fourth straight win and merits consideration. (8) Heavenly Sunday keeps getting better.
11th race – Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) - (7) Wet Paint has a strong stretch kick and a three-race winning streak. Looks best in a tough field. (3) Gambling Girl will also make her presence felt in the final furlong. (4) Southlawn has gotten good at the right time. (14) Pretty Mischievous has plenty of talent but drew a bad post.
12th race – (1) Curl Girl has strong early speed and will be aided by a rail trip. (2) Tough Legacy was a rallying second and will be a top contender. (6) Guns n’ Graces will appreciate the class relief after running a Grade 1 stakes. (3) Boss Lady Bailey was third last time and should not be overlooked.
13th race – (2) Coppa Girl looks like a talented first-time starter from Cox. (11) Twin Mischief missed by a neck and will helped by more distance here. (12) Pitch Clock may strike in this field. (14) American Retro was a strong second in her debut but faces a wide trip from the outside post.
Jeff Nahill’s Kentucky Oaks handicap (stakes races for Friday, May 5 ay Churchill Downs)
FIFTH RACE (Alysheba): 4-2-1-5
SIXTH RACE (Modesty): 7-6-8-2-4
SEVENTH RACE (Eight Belles): 6-8-9-1-2
EIGHTH RACE (Unbridled Sydney): 3-8-11-1-9
NINTH RACE (La Troiene): 7-9-2-10-6
10TH RACE (Edgewood): 2-11-5-3-7
11TH RACE (Kentucky Oaks): 1. And Tell Me Nolies (15-1), 2. Wet Paint (5-2), 3. Defining Purposes (12-1), 4. Southlawn (8-1). LONG SHOT: Pretty Mischievous (10-1).
There is no doubt WET PAINT is the one to beat. She was impressive at Oaklawn Park and should relish the long stretch at Churchill Downs with jockey Flavien Prat. However, AND TELL ME NOLIES has lost two straight to the best 3-year-old filly in America in Bob Baffert’s Farza, who is banned from this race. This is third off the layoff for the Peter Miller-trained filly. Looks like a wide open race.