King of the Mountain West
By Judd Hall
Most non-BCS conferences don’t get much respect from the experts or fans. The Mountain West hasn’t had that problem as they are arguably the best league that doesn’t get an automatic seat at the big boy’s table.
Who can argue with the conference’s body of work? Utah ran the table for the second time in five seasons in 2008, culminating in a 31-17 beating of the Crimson Tide in the Sugar Bowl. Respect only goes so far as the Utes wound up ranking behind only the Gators in the final AP and USA Today polls. Still, this is the only school not from a BCS conference to have two BCS bowl victories.
The Utes aren’t the only team that shined from the MWC last season. Texas Christian finished wound up finishing seventh in both major polls. Gary Patterson’s Horned Frogs finished the year with five wins in their last six games, losing in the final minute to Utah and beating Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl.
Bettors have known for a while that the teams in the Mountain West are able to hang with the big boys. The league is a combined 23-26 straight up against BCS schools over the last three seasons, going 28-20-1 ATS in that stretch as well.
So which team is set to take on the mantle of mid-major champion this season? Our editorial staff is convinced that TCU will make that jump in 2009.
VegasInsider.com’s Chris David believes that the Horned Frogs will roll thanks to the talent that is coming back to Fort Worth. “While most pundits believe the Mountain West is a three-horse race, TCU seems to be the top contender due to its playmaking ability with quarterback Andy Dalton and wide receiver Jimmy Young on offense and a sound defense.”
Dalton was a strong force on the attack last season, ranking 33rd in the nation in total offense by averaging 243.1 yards per game by himself. Young is a legitimate deep threat receiver, which is proven by the fact that he averaged 16.7 yards per catch last season.
The running attack is going to be solid as well with Joseph Turner and Ryan Christian providing a one-two punch in the backfield. This duo ran for 963 total yards and scored 15 touchdowns. It also helps that they’ll be running behind an offensive line that is 315 pound per starter.
While David leans more to the offense for TCU’s success, Kevin Rogers is standing behind its stopping unit. “This defense is one of the best in the country, and their schedule is fair, with no back-to-back road games for the entire season. Throw in the fact that they went 8-4 ATS in ’08 and that makes the Horned Frogs a solid team to win this conference.”
I am leaning the same way as Rogers on Texas Christian. No team in college football allowed fewer yards than the Horned Frogs last season (217.8 YPG). A lot of people will be quick to point out that TCU is replacing seven starters on defense. Is that usually a problem? Sure, but Patterson had to install six new starters last year and look at how that turned out.
When it comes to picking a team that could challenge for the conference title, our group couldn’t be more divided.
Rogers is going for broke by backing UNLV to contend in the MWC. “The Runnin’ Rebels will try to rebound after a 5-7 season that saw few highlights. The one positive is UNLV is getting back junior QB Omar Clayton, who is fully recovered from a knee injury suffered against TCU last season.” He concludes, “The Rebs return their top wide out in Ryan Wolfe, who caught 87 passes last season for 1,037 yards. Their two toughest road games are at TCU and Air Force later on the schedule, but I see plenty of good wagering opportunities on the Rebels this season.”
Not a lot is expected out of Utah this season after all they accomplished a year ago. It also doesn’t help that they’re replacing all but four starters from an offense that averaged 36.9 points per game. While it’s a daunting task, it isn’t impossible with another combination under center with incumbent Corbin Louks and junior college transfer Terrance Cain. And the receiving corp looks to be in good shape with juco transfer Aiona Key anchoring the group.
Defensively, the Utes will be just fine with seven starters coming back for the 2009 campaign. That’s important when you consider that they were 11th in the country in total defense last year by giving up just 289.2 YPG.
Utah also has a winnable schedule to run this year. They go to Oregon to face a defense that gave up almost 400 yards every time out in ’08, then follow that up with a home date against Louisville. Road tilts against TCU and BYU will most likely produce one defeat, but they have a legitimate shot of repeating as conference champs.
One team we won’t have to worry about making too much noise (save for their groaning from the fan base) is Wyoming. Kevin Rogers explains, “The Cowboys clearly don’t have an easy road this season. Following a cupcake in Weber State to open the year, Wyoming battles Texas and Colorado in consecutive weeks. Then they have to go cross-country to take on Florida Atlantic. I just don’t see many times that you’ll point at the Cowboys and want to jump on their bandwagon this season.”
I can’t fault anyone taking the Cowboys as their favorite whipping boys. Wyoming was dead last in scoring offense for the nation (12.7 PPG) and 108th in total offense (296.0 YPG). Also, the ‘Pokes gave up almost 330 YPG last season and 27.8 PPG on defense. It’s no wonder that this team has gone 4-18-1 ATS over the last years.
The Lobos are another program you might want to fade this season. “After the Big-Three (Utah, TCU, BYU), some might say the other six schools in the MWC are on the same level but one team that’s definitely in rebuilding mode is New Mexico,” says Chris David. “The school will feature a new head coach, which brings along fresh offensive and defensive schemes. How the remaining players left over from the Rocky Long-era adapt will play a major role in the team’s success.”
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