Kiss of Death?
By Brian Edwards
Although the Florida Gators are the clear-cut favorites to repeat in 2009, they might be jinxed already. They might have taken the kiss of death at the Red Rock Casino in Las Vegas before any of the games even begin.
Why, you ask? Well, because every member of our panel for the college football forecast at the 2009 VegasInsider.com Handicapping Seminar predicted UF to win its third national title in four seasons.
Bruce Marshall, Jason Johnson, Sid Rosenberg, Marc Lawrence, James Manos, Paul Prestridge (of Bullseye Sports) and I each took the Gators to prevail in Pasadena. However, who would fall to UF varied among the panelists.
Marshall liked Penn St. to make the BCS Championship Game because of a “soft non-conference schedule and playing Ohio St. at home,” but he didn’t feel the Nittany Lions would be deserving of that invitation. On that note, Marshall called for the Gators to thump PSU by a 48-6 count.
James Manos went with Va. Tech to run the table in a “balanced” ACC, although he clarified that his Hokies’ prediction tends to mirror the Bills-49ers Super Bowl forecast Chris Berman has seemingly been calling for since ESPN’s inception.
Marc Lawrence likes one of two sleeper teams, either Oklahoma St. or Ga. Tech, to make it to the BCS Championship Game. He went with Florida but with a little more reservation than most.
Lawrence said, “It’s hard not to like Florida with all of its returning starters, but I’ll say this: They have never gone undefeated in school history. If there’s a game they’ll lose, it would perhaps be at LSU.”
Prestridge is real high on Texas to win the Big 12 and thinks the Longhorns can “give Florida a great game.” Nevertheless, he stuck with UF to win it all. Like Prestridge, Johnson and I have the Gators beating the ‘Horns.
Lawrence thinks the Big Ten is going to be “up” and “wide open” this year with Ohio St. and Penn St. at the top. Like Marshall, Lawrence noted PSU’s edge in terms of its soft non-conference schedule compared to the Buckeyes hosting USC in Week 2.
Lawrence said this about the Bucks, “Jim Tressel is going to open up the offense finally and all I can say is thank God. Tressel is conservative as the vest he wears, but he is going to the ‘Pistol’ offense like Nevada’s this year. Just like Colin Kaepernick for Nevada, Tressel is going to keep the ball in Terrelle Pryor’s hands and let him make plays. If that offense jells early, watch out for Ohio St.”
Lawrence liked Illinois as a sleeper, but called for Minnesota to go “backwards as it switches to a pass-oriented offense.” On an earlier panel, Tim Trushel of the SportsMemo was also bullish on Illinois and liked Auburn’s win total to go ‘over’ seven. Trushel defended the hiring of Gene Chizik, who he lauded for coaching “unbeaten defenses as defensive coordinator at Texas and at Auburn in ’04.”
Rotunda disagreed with Trushel on Auburn. "I just don't see it with Auburn," Rotunda said. "I like that team 'under' and don't like the Chizik hire. They don't have a quarterback, either, going with the kid from last year (Chris Todd) whose not a good passer."
My opinion on Auburn falls between Trushel's and Rotunda's. I see this team going 7-5 thanks to an excellent defense and the Tigers will hook up their bitter rivals by knocking off Ole Miss in an upset that paves the way for the Tide to get to Atlanta.
Manos, who is based out of Reno and is a WAC expert, called the league the “Boise State Conference the last few years.” Manos said, “The conference as a whole is soft and has a weak underbelly. Fresno St. has gone soft under Pat Hill in recent years. If there’s a team that can challenge Boise this year, it could be La. Tech because it catches the Broncos in a difficult travel spot.”
Manos continued, “The travel in the WAC is brutal, covering the distance from Hawaii all the way to Ruston, LA. When Boise goes to La. Tech this year, it’ll be a third road game in four weeks with the Broncos playing at Hawaii two weeks before. They better come to play in Ruston because the Bulldogs can give them trouble at home.”
Manos was concerned that Nevada’s Pistol offense might hit a speed bump in 2009. “Chris Ault has been speaking at a lot of coaching seminars and handing out some portions of his playbooks to other coaches. And I think defensive coaches are going to be ready to make adjustments now that they’ve had a lot of time to watch film on this offensive approach.”
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--The big college football news on Thursday was USC naming true freshman Matt Barkley as its starting QB. Earlier this week, Tennessee got good news when freshman RB Bryce Brown was ruled to be eligible after his status appeared unclear for a week. Brown and Barkley are considered by most to be the best freshmen in the nation. Now let's clean out the notebook with other thoughts and comments from handicappers at the seminar...
--Lawrence on Northwestern: “I like Pat Fitzgerald as a coach but Northwestern could be in some trouble this year. This program lost 23 seniors from a nine-win team and those kind of losses can sometimes leave a team with a cupboard-is-bare complex.”
--Marshall thinks Washington is going to be better than expected, noting that "that team doesn't go winless if Jake Locker doesn't get hurt. After that, things just went stale for Ty (Willingham) and I think (Steve) Sarkisian is going to be a little bit of an upgrade." Marshall also thinks Oregon St. is once again underrated. He also feels UCLA is overvalued in Week 1 against San Diego St. and he has "big concerns about Rick Neuheisel."
--Marshall on Dennis Erickson at Arizona St.: "I'm not sure if he has the fire anymore." On Oregon and Cal: "I'm not as high on these teams to challenge USC this year. Like Steve Spurrier at South Carolina, Jeff Tedford has had QB problems the last few years."
--Rotunda liked USF and WVU’s win totals to go ‘over’ in his Big East comments. He thinks Jarrett Brown is a “beast” and will be a more-than-adequate replacement for Pat White at QB.
--Manos raved about the hire of Brady Hoke at San Diego St. He liked the coaching staff assembled by Hoke and thinks the Aztecs are in a good spot at home when they host BYU on Oct. 17. The Cougars will be in a look-ahead situation with TCU on deck with the conference title possibly on the line. They also will be playing a second road game in as many weeks. "BYU as a road favorite with TCU up next is a brutal spot," Manos said. "And San Diego St. has an open date the previous week, so we should get some line value with the Aztecs."
--I called for Troy to beat Arkansas outright and predicted Steve Kragthorpe to taste a pink slip after Louisville loses to Cincinnati to fall to 2-5. After the Cardinals went 41-9 under Bobby Petrino, they are an abysmal 11-13 under Kragthorpe. When U of L loses to the Bearcats, Kragthorpe will be canned and eventually replaced by Phillip Fulmer.
vegasinsider.com.